Sunflower Market Update: Price Volatility Returns with Oil Shocks and Fragile Export Demand

The sunflower market has entered a turbulent period, marked by fast-changing price dynamics and fragile export demand. Last week, Ukrainian sunflower seed farmers experienced a brief opportunity to sell at higher prices, as a sharp global oil price increase filtered through to vegetable oils, temporarily driving offers for sunflower seeds with 50% oil content to $545–550 per tonne (ex VAT, delivered to plant). This surge was buoyed by a firmer euro and elevated diesel prices, which boosted biofuel and vegetable oil demand across Europe. Speculation regarding extended instability in the Middle East contributed to bullish sentiment across oilseed markets. However, this optimism evaporated quickly after the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, prompting an 8% slide in crude oil and a parallel drop in oilseed prices worldwide. Canola and soybean oil prices fell 2–3%, dragging sunflower oil values lower as well. Export activity in the Black Sea region then slowed considerably, and market sentiment shifted toward caution.

Presently, sunflower oil export prices from Ukraine are quoted at $1,090–1,100 per tonne (FOB, Black Sea), while EU demand is slightly firmer due to currency effects. Asian demand, particularly from China, has been somewhat resilient but remains subdued compared to 2023. With vegetable oil demand softening again and new rapeseed arrivals imminent, Ukrainian sunflower seed prices are expected to come under renewed downward pressure as the market recalibrates. Traders are now watching weather conditions and harvest progress closely as further volatility seems likely in the coming weeks.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Sunflower kernels, hulled, chips (99.95%)	BG	Sofia	FCA	0.82	0.95	-13.7%	2025-06-24	Bearish
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery (99.95%)	BG	Sofia	FCA	0.92	0.95	-3.2%	2025-06-24	Bearish
Sunflower kernels, hulled, bakery (99.99%)	BG	Hamburg	FCA	1.03	1.35	-23.7%	2025-06-24	Strongly Bearish

Key International Prices:

• Ukrainian sunflower seeds (50% oil, ex VAT, delivered): $545–550/tonne (recent peak, now under pressure)
• Ukrainian sunflower oil (FOB, Black Sea): $1,090–1,100/tonne
• EU sunflower oil (DAP Greece, N. Macedonia): $1,150–1,170/tonne
• Russian sunflower oil (FOB): $1,090/tonne (down $35/tonne week-on-week)
• Chicago soybean oil futures (July): $1,170/tonne (down 2.4% daily, still +5.3% weekly)

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Ukraine: Brief opportunity for better seed prices, but export pace slows amid global price retreat.
• EU: Demand remains steady, boosted by euro appreciation and firm biofuel/vegetable oil interest, though recent diesel price bump may fade.
• China: May sunflower oil imports surged 66% m/m to 60,300 tonnes, but Jan–May imports are down 60.9% y/y (higher relative cost vs. palm/soybean oil persists).
• Russia & Kazakhstan: Remain major suppliers to Asia; Russian FOB price dropped $35/tonne as export sales cooled.
• Inventory: Global inventories reportedly tightening, but upcoming rapeseed harvests and weak Asian demand weigh on outlook.

📊 Fundamentals

• Price Drivers: Crude oil volatility, Euro/Dollar exchange, biofuel demand trends, Black Sea logistics, and speculative sentiment.
• Speculation: Middle East ceasefire led to immediate oil price drop, triggering risk-off mood among traders.
• China: Sinograin’s June tenders saw limited uptake; higher prices and slow demand point to ongoing substitution toward cheaper oils.

Country	2024 Production Estimate (MMT)	Stocks (MMT)	Notes
Ukraine	15.0	NA	Exports continue despite war, but logistics remain fragile
Russia	17.5	NA	Exports to Asia and EU strong, but slowing
EU (total)	9.7	NA	Stable domestic use, limited export
China	2.5	NA	Imports main supply; palm/soybean price competition

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Recent conditions mostly favorable, but patches of dryness in southern oblasts could limit yield potential if not relieved by rain in late June/early July.
• Russia (Southern Federal District): Generally adequate moisture; moderate temperatures, favorable for crop filling.
• Central/Eastern Europe: Periodic heatwaves expected to return; potential for local yield stress in July, especially in Hungary and Romania.
• China (Northern Plains): Monsoonal rains above average, supporting current crop establishment.

📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Weakening international vegetable oil markets and easing crude oil strength suggest downside risk for sunflower seed and oil prices in July.
• Expect Ukrainian farmgate seed prices to test support near $523/tonne (25,000 UAH delivered) if exports do not rebound.
• EU kernel/seed prices likely to soften but should outperform Black Sea origins if euro remains firm.
• Chinese import demand could improve in Q3 if relative prices versus palm/soy oils narrow.
• Watch for speculative positioning shifts as new rapeseed harvest hits market.
• End users with open needs should monitor for spot market dips to secure forward coverage.

Region/Exchange	Spot Price (USD/t or EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Ukraine (ex-works)	$545	$523–$535	📉 Downward
Black Sea (FOB, oil)	$1,090	$1,070–$1,090	📉 Downward
EU (kernels, Hamburg FCA)	1.03 EUR/kg	1.00–1.05 EUR/kg	📉 Slightly downward
China (imported oil)	$1,150–$1,170	$1,140–$1,160	📉 Downward