Corn Market Navigates Stability Amid Contradictory Global Signals: Regional Price Tensions and Weather Risks Loom

Global corn markets are holding a steady footing as we move towards the mid-2025 period, with futures at major exchanges remaining broadly unchanged this week and cash prices largely stable across key origins. Participants are closely weighing static supply expectations against mounting concerns about developing weather risks in major producing regions, as well as shifting speculative positioning. While Euronext and CBOT corn futures are showing minimal week-on-week movement, regional price spreads highlight continuing logistical and demand complexities in both Europe and the Black Sea region.

Meanwhile, recent forecasts indicate emerging dryness in the US Midwest and parts of Eastern Europe, fueling uncertainty regarding new crop yields. Global inventories remain adequate for now, but traders’ eyes are fixed on the coming weeks’ weather evolution, especially given the backdrop of tightening South American exports after their main harvests. Overall, the corn complex finds itself at a crossroads: well-supplied for the moment, but with significant upside risk if adverse weather persists through the crucial pollination period.

📈 Corn Prices at Major Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Change (%)	Currency	Sentiment
Euronext	Aug 25	194.50	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
Euronext	Nov 25	198.25	0.00%	EUR/t	Neutral
CBOT	Jul 25	412.00	+0.61%	US-Cent/bu	Steady/Firm
CBOT	Dec 25	423.25	+0.53%	US-Cent/bu	Steady
DCE (Dalian)	Jul 25	2355.00	+0.08%	CNY/t	Neutral
DCE (Dalian)	Nov 25	2318.00	+0.09%	CNY/t	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: June WASDE left US ending stocks largely unchanged; world balances are comfortable, but the market is wary of possible downgrades if weather remains dry in July.
• Global Inventories: Ending stocks-to-use ratio remains historically average, though Chinese and US stocks are under scrutiny for quality and accessibility.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money funds have unwound large net short positions in recent weeks, helping to stem downward momentum but not triggering speculative rallies yet.
• Physical Market (Offers, FCA/FOB): Latest spot prices:
  • Ukraine yellow feed corn, Odesa, FCA: €0.25/kg (steady)
  • France yellow corn, Paris, FOB: €0.26/kg (down from €0.27/kg)
  • Ukraine yellow corn, Odesa, FOB: €0.21/kg (unchanged)
  • India organic starch corn, New Delhi, FOB: €1.97/kg (slightly lower)
• Regional Demand: EU import pace is behind last year, but strong North African and Middle Eastern feed demand supports Black Sea flows. Chinese demand cools slightly due to economic uncertainties.

📊 Fundamentals Overview

Country	Production 2024/25 (mt)	Stocks (mt)	Commentary
USA	384	54	Solid crop expectations, weather risk rising
China	288	211	Stocks are high, but some are tied to reserves
Brazil	118	8	Good safrinha, export pace slowing
EU-27	62	14	Cautious on summer weather/yields
Ukraine	29	3	Exports steady, logistics fragile

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• US Midwest: Heatwaves and below-normal rainfall forecast through early July; key pollination phase at risk, but soil profiles retain some moisture from wet spring.
• Europe: Southern and Eastern regions, especially Romania and Hungary, are expected to see below-average precipitation; in France, more stable but above-average temperatures are possible.
• China: North China Plain and Northeast regions near normal for now; late-summer typhoon risk not yet factored.
• South America: Safrinha harvest nearly complete, allowing fields to return to wheat; dry conditions in Central Brazil, but no current impact on remaining inventories.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Remain hedged for Q3 delivery contracts—uncertainty over US weather justifies risk mitigation.
• End-users should consider layering in coverage for late Q3–Q4, especially if buy-side exposure is light.
• Sellers: Monitor shifts in DCE and CBOT futures for cues on global flow direction.
• Watch July USDA crop reports: potential downward revisions on US/EU output could spark volatility.
• Basis values and regional premiums (Black Sea, EU) are likely to see the first impact if weather turns decisively adverse.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Contract	Price Direction	Expected Range	Sentiment
Euronext	Aug 25	Steady/Firm	192.5 – 196.5 EUR/t	Watch weather
CBOT	Jul 25	Upward Bias	410 – 415 USc/bu	Weather risk
DCE	Jul 25	Stable	2345 – 2375 CNY/t	Muted moves