Wheat Market Report: Fresh Lows Amid Harvest Optimism and Stronger Euro

The global wheat market is experiencing significant downward pressure as harvest optimism builds in major exporting regions and a stronger Euro compounds the bearish sentiment. Prices at Euronext have reached new lows, dragged by upwardly revised production estimates across the EU and Black Sea region, while stability in CBOT contracts shows some resilience but hints at underlying weakness. The latest forecasts by the European Commission paint a more optimistic outlook for EU wheat production, especially in France, Romania, and Spain. Simultaneously, the International Grains Council (IGC) lifted its estimates for world wheat output and stocks, further calming concerns of a global shortfall.

Meanwhile, trading attention has shifted to inventory data and USDA crop reports, with US ending stocks projected notably above last year, reinforcing the notion of ample global supply. In the background, weather remains a wild card, with improving conditions across key growing areas supporting the outlook, yet some vigilance is required on regional developments. In physical markets, protein-rich wheat offered in Ukraine and France traded in a narrow range, signalling cautious demand. For both producers and speculators, the current setting offers both opportunity and risk: short-term volatility may be limited by abundant supply, but a sudden weather turn or geopolitical shock could quickly reverse fortunes.

📈 Wheat Prices: Latest Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Price	Currency	Change (%)	Sentiment
Euronext (MATIF)	Sep 25	196.00	EUR/t	0.00%	Bearish
Euronext (MATIF)	Dec 25	208.00	EUR/t	0.00%	Bearish
CBOT	Sep 25	539.25	US-Cent/bu	-0.28%	Bearish
CBOT	Dec 25	561.25	US-Cent/bu	-0.31%	Bearish
CE Futterweizen (London)	Jul 25	139.00	GBP/t	+0.61%	Mixed

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• EU Output Revised Upward: EU-27 2025/26 wheat harvest now seen at 128.2 Mt (+1.6 Mt over previous forecast); French output up to 32.55 Mt.
• Exports Stable, Stocks Down: EU soft wheat exports forecast unchanged at 29.8 Mt. Year-end EU stocks cut to 8.3 Mt, reflecting a tightening from last month’s 9.0 Mt prediction.
• Global Balance Sheet Improving: IGC sees world output now at 808 Mt (+2 Mt), with ending stocks up to 264 Mt on higher Indian and Romanian crops.
• Russia Crop Edging Higher: IKAR upgrades Russian wheat forecast to 84.53 Mt.
• US Stock Surplus: USDA expected to report June 1 US wheat stocks of 863 million bushels (previous year: 696 million bu).

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Currency Support: EUR/USD at 1.1695—the strongest since Oct 2021—pressures Eurozone exports.
• Physical Prices (Selected Offers):

Origin	Location	Type	Delivery	Latest Price	Previous	Updated
Ukraine (UA)	Kyiv	11.50% Protein	FCA	0.23 EUR/kg	0.24 EUR/kg	2025-06-27
Ukraine (UA)	Odesa	11.50% Protein	FCA	0.24 EUR/kg	0.25 EUR/kg	2025-06-27
France (FR)	Paris	11.00% Protein	FOB	0.26 EUR/kg	0.27 EUR/kg	2025-06-20

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Europe: Forecasts indicate mostly favourable, warm weather conditions in France, Romania, and Germany. Limited precipitation may accelerate harvest logistics but also raises localised drought risks if the dry pattern persists into July.
• Black Sea: Ukraine and Russia are enjoying mostly benign growing conditions. Spot drought in southern Russia is being watched, but no major threat has been reported so far.
• US Plains: Near-normal rainfall and seasonal temperatures are supportive for remaining winter wheat maturation and spring wheat development.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	Latest Output (Mt)	Previous Estimate (Mt)	2024/25 Output (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)
EU-27	128.2	126.6	—	8.3
Russia	84.53	83.83	—	n.a.
India	117.5	115.1	113.3	n.a.
Romania	12.5	11.5	10.1	n.a.
World	808	806	—	264

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Fundamentals remain heavy; ample global supply and growing stocks limit upside potential in the short term.
• Monitor weather for late-season surprises, especially in Russia and the US spring wheat belt.
• Stronger Euro adds export pressure for EU producers—hedging currency risk is advisable.
• Physical buyers may find improved negotiating power as sellers compete ahead of new crop flows.
• Watch for USDA stocks and Crop Progress reports—unexpected shifts could spark volatility.
• Spreads and structure remain flat to slightly bearish; downside moves most likely near-term, but value-buying could emerge at deeper lows.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	07/01	07/02	07/03
Euronext (MATIF) Sep 25 (EUR/t)	195.50	196.00	196.00
CBOT Sep 25 (US-Cent/bu)	539.00	539.50	539.50
London Feed Wheat Jul 25 (GBP/t)	139.00	139.20	139.20