Rapeseed Market Update: Ukrainian Prices Defy European Downtrend Amid Shrinking Supply

The global rapeseed market is currently at a pivotal moment. Despite a sharp drop in rapeseed futures prices on the MATIF exchange—over €25 per metric ton—Ukrainian domestic prices are moving in the opposite direction, steadily increasing. This divergence is fueled by resilient demand from local traders and processors keen to secure supplies amid expectations of a much smaller 2025 harvest. Rapeseed production in Ukraine is forecast to fall by 800,000 tons year-on-year, with exports expected to contract by 500,000 tons.

These factors are providing robust support to Ukrainian price levels, offering rare strong selling opportunities for domestic producers while tightening the European market overall. Current offers for the 2025 harvest have hovered around $530-540 CPT large ports, reflecting a competitive market landscape that favours sellers for now. Given this contrasting dynamic between the key European futures market and domestic Ukrainian fundamentals, industry participants should keep a close eye on crop progress and weather developments to gauge forward price risks and opportunities.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change (%)	Update Date	Sentiment
UA	Kyiv	FCA	0.54	0.51	+5.9%	2025-06-27	Firm/Bullish
UA	Odesa	FCA	0.55	0.53	+3.8%	2025-06-27	Firm/Bullish
FR	Paris	FOB	0.54	0.54	0.0%	2025-06-20	Stable

🌐 Key Exchange Quotes (Harvest 2025)

• MATIF (Euronext): Last week’s rapeseed contract dropped by over €25/t, adding bearish sentiment to the European side.
• Ukraine CPT Large Ports: Indications remain strong at $530-540/t, reflecting tight supply and robust domestic demand.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukrainian 2025 Rapeseed Production: Expected to decrease by 800,000 tons.
• Ukrainian Exports: Anticipated to be 500,000 tons lower than last year.
• Persistent Local Demand: Processors and exporters continue to show high buying interest, absorbing available supplies.
• European Market: MATIF price drop not reflected in Ukraine, highlighting local fundamentals and potential regional supply gaps.

📊 Fundamental Analysis

Country	Production Forecast (2025, kt)	Change YoY (kt)	Export Forecast (2025, kt)	Stocks/Use Ratio
Ukraine	~3,400	-800	~2,200	Low
EU-27	~17,900	+150	~3,000	Moderate
Canada	~18,200	+300	~10,900 (Canola)	High

Note: Data based on the latest available estimates and vector search. Stock/use ratios indicate tightness in Ukraine and more comfort in North America.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine: Mixed conditions—recent dry spells continue, particularly in southern and central regions. Moisture deficits remain a concern during critical seed-filling stages, likely impacting final yields and supporting bullish pricing.
• Western Europe: Periodic rains in France and Germany have stabilised crop prospects but have not offset earlier stress in Eastern Europe.
• Canada: Cool, wet weather in the Canadian Prairies could delay canola harvesting but may help fill pods after last year’s drought.

📌 Market Drivers & Spec Positioning

• USDA and EU crop updates confirm lower output in the Black Sea region.
• Speculative funds have increased long positions in Euronext/MATIF rapeseed contracts.
• Logistical issues persist at several Ukrainian export terminals.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Producers in Ukraine should consider forward selling at current elevated levels—demand is high, and supply is expected to tighten further.
• Processors and exporters need to secure coverage early; the basis remains firm with local fundamentals outweighing European futures trends.
• Keep monitoring weather outlooks for late-stage crop risks.
• Global importers may look to Canada for additional supply if Black Sea tightness persists.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Price Forecast (EUR/t)	Direction
MATIF (Euronext)	445-455	Sideways/Soft
Ukraine (Kyiv/Odesa CPT)	540-550	Firm/Bullish
France (Paris FOB)	535-545	Flat

Volatility is expected to persist, but the Ukrainian domestic market holds a bullish bias near term.