Barley Market Steady but Eyes on Weather & Demand: Analysis & Outlook

The global barley market presents a calm façade at midsummer 2025, with prices subdued and little movement across major exchange contracts, but underlying currents merit close monitoring for later in the year. Market activity on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) Futtergerste contracts is currently flat, with no price changes across all future delivery months as of June 30, 2025. Despite this apparent stability, spot prices in key Black Sea export hubs such as Odesa and Kyiv have softened slightly but remain near the lower end of this year’s range. The prevailing bearish sentiment reflects ample stocks, yet tightening weather patterns and evolving global feed demand continue to cast uncertainty over the forward curve.

Barley supplies from Ukraine remain competitive, but persistent dryness in parts of Europe and the Black Sea, as well as trade disruptions, are providing occasional support. With the upcoming harvest and critical weather phases ongoing in several key production areas, the market remains at an inflexion point: will ample inventories quash rallies, or will weather risks and rising feed demand trigger volatility? We’ll break down current prices, fundamental trends, global production forecasts, and provide a short-term outlook for regional price action to help you stay ahead of the curve.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
SFE (Australia)	Jul 25	310.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral/Inactive
SFE (Australia)	Sep 25	310.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral/Inactive
SFE (Australia)	Jan 26	316.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral/Inactive

 

Product	Type	Location	Delivery	Latest Price	Previous	Update Date	Link
Barley seeds	Feed grade	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.22 EUR/kg	0.23 EUR/kg	2025-06-27	Offer
Barley seeds	Feed grade	Kyiv, UA	FCA	0.21 EUR/kg	0.22 EUR/kg	2025-06-27	Offer
Barley seeds	Cattle feed	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20 EUR/kg	0.21 EUR/kg	2025-06-20	Offer

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

• Supply: Robust stocks in Ukraine and steady export flows from the Black Sea region underpin ample near-term availability, though logistical bottlenecks and some weather-induced harvest risks linger.
• Demand: Feed demand remains resilient, but global barley usage faces competition from corn and wheat amid softening animal feed sector growth in Asia and the Middle East.
• Inventories: Global inventories are moderately above the 5-year average, particularly in major exporting countries such as Russia, Ukraine, and the EU.
• Speculation: Lack of fresh buying interest and low speculative positioning keep the market rangebound.
• USDA & Reports: Latest USDA reports confirm minimal changes to global barley acreage and a moderate outlook for 2025/26 production, with weather now a key variable.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global barley production for 2024/25 is estimated at ~147 million tonnes (+2% y/y; source: USDA/FAO preliminary)
• Key exporters: EU, Australia, Russia, Ukraine, Canada
• Major importers: China, Saudi Arabia, North Africa

Country	2023/24 prod. (Mt)	2024/25 (est., Mt)	Trend
EU	51.5	52.3	⬆️
Australia	13.2	13.5	⬆️
Ukraine	5.9	6.1	⬆️
Russia	20.2	20.0	➡️
Canada	9.1	9.3	⬆️

 

• Chinese barley demand for feed/malt remains a major swing factor.
• Saudi Arabian imports are projected to be steady; alternatives are being watched.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• EU & Black Sea: Rain shortfalls persist in eastern Europe and southern Russia; local dryness may curb yields, though crop conditions are mostly favourable in western Europe.
• Ukraine: Recent scattered rains arrived too late for early-sown barley; late crops may benefit. Harvest progress lagging in southern oblasts due to short-term heatwaves.
• Australia: Mild temperatures and adequate moisture favour the new season outlook, with sowing complete and early crop emergence reported as excellent.

📌 Trading Recommendations & Outlook

• Consider near-term procurement given price stability and competitive export availability, especially ex-Black Sea.
• Monitor weather risks: mounting dryness in the Black Sea region could quickly firm prices if yield reductions are confirmed.
• Sellers remain under light pressure from inventory rollover, but buyers should stay vigilant for any supply shocks in July-August.
• Watch for updated USDA and EU crop bulletins for critical acreage and yield revisions.
• Short-term bias: Sideways with a mild bullish tilt on any weather-driven headlines.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• SFE (Australia): 310–316 AUD/t, unchanged, expected due to low liquidity and stable outlook
• Odesa, UA (FCA): 0.21–0.23 EUR/kg; minor downside risk, but mostly stable
• Kyiv, UA (FCA): 0.20–0.22 EUR/kg, expect rangebound trading
• FOB Black Sea: 0.18–0.20 EUR/kg, stable unless weather turns disruptive