Philippines Grain Outlook 2025/26: Rice Holds Firm, Corn Expands, Wheat Demand Stable

Philippines Grain Outlook 2025/26: Rice Holds Firm, Corn Expands, Wheat Demand Stable

Favourable weather, targeted government support, and improved pest management are boosting rice and corn output in the Philippines, while wheat imports remain steady amid growing demand for bread and aquaculture feed.

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📊 1. Key Figures Overview

Category	MY 2024/25	MY 2025/26
Rice Production	12.2 MMT (milled)	12.25 MMT (↑ +0.4%)
Corn Production	8.2 MMT	8.3 MMT (↑ +1.2%)
Wheat Imports	7.2 MMT	7.2 MMT (→ stable)
Rice Imports	5.2 MMT (↓ -1.9%)	5.2 MMT
Corn Imports	1.63 MMT	1.75 MMT (↑ +7.4%)

 

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🌾 2. Rice – Stable Production, Increased Subsidised Consumption

• Production benefits from early rains (June 2025) and strong government support:
  • Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund provides input subsidies (seed, fertiliser, machinery).
  • NFA PRICERS Program offers guaranteed higher prices for dry and wet paddy.
• Consumption rises to 17.3 MMT, driven by:
  • Rice-for-All Program: public sale of milled rice at PHP 20/kg via Kadiwa stores.
• Imports down slightly, though Vietnam (3.7 MMT) and Thailand (0.4 MMT) remain top suppliers.

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🌽 3. Corn – Production Expands Despite ASF Constraints

• Area harvested increases to 2.55 million ha.
• Farmers benefit from improved pest (Fall Armyworm) control using more resistant varieties.
• Yellow corn (80%) dominates as feed grain; white corn use increases in snack manufacturing (e.g., nachos).
• Consumption reaches 10 MMT, driven by:
  • Poultry, aquaculture, and pet food industries.
• Key import sources: Argentina, Myanmar, Vietnam, and the U.S. (prices range USD 234–528/MT).

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🌾 4. Wheat – Bread Demand Rises, Aquaculture Uses Feed Wheat

• The Philippines produces no wheat, relying fully on imports.
• Total wheat consumption grows to 7.15 MMT in 2025/26:
  • Milling wheat up due to premium bakery product demand (e.g., garlic cheese buns).
  • Feed wheat is used as a substitute for corn and soybean meal in aquafeed.
• Import structure:
  • USA: 77% share in milling wheat.
  • Australia: >99% share in feed wheat.

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📦 5. Stocks & Supply Outlook

Commodity	Ending Stocks MY 2024/25	Ending Stocks MY 2025/26	Notes
Rice	3.70 MMT	3.85 MMT (↑ +4.1%)	Higher production & procurement
Corn	0.23 MMT	0.28 MMT (↑ +21.5%)	Increased feed & snack stocks
Wheat	0.97 MMT	0.99 MMT (→ stable)	Stocks limited by warm/humid storage risks

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🧭 Conclusion & Outlook

• Rice remains a staple with stable output and enhanced affordability due to social programs.
• Corn is gaining strategic importance, particularly in the feed and snack industries.
• Wheat imports hold firm, with rising bakery demand and growing feed usage in aquaculture.
• The Philippines will remain a key import market for global grain suppliers in 2025/26, with stable to growing demand across all major commodities.

Source: USDA