Senegal Peanut Outlook 2025/26: Area Expands, Production Recovers from Statistical Revisions
Government support, increased input access, and improved pricing incentives drive Senegalese peanut area expansion in 2025/26, following a sharp statistical correction in 2024/25 that redefined national production levels.
📊 1. Key Figures Summary
| Indicator | MY 2023/24 | MY 2024/25 (est.) | MY 2025/26 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Area harvested | 1.25 Mha | 810,000 ha (↓ -35%) | 850,000 ha (↑ +5%) |
| Production | 1.68 MMT | 731,000 MT (↓ -56%) | 770,000 MT (↑ +5%) |
| Exports | 308,000 MT | 250,000 MT | 260,000 MT (↑ +4%) |
| Ending stocks | 454,000 MT | 150,000 MT (↓ -67%) | 120,000 MT (↓ -20%) |
| Domestic food use | 440,000 MT | 300,000 MT | 150,000 MT |
| Domestic feed use | 950,000 MT | 305,000 MT | 200,000 MT |
🌱 2. Production – Statistical Methodology Shift Reframes Supply Baseline
- 2024/25 output revised downward by 56% due to a new statistical reference base adopted by the Government of Senegal (GoS).
- Previous years likely overestimated yields and area.
- 2025/26 area forecast: 850,000 ha, up 5% year-over-year:
- Driven by input subsidies (certified seed, fertiliser, equipment).
- The agricultural budget increased 8% year-over-year.
- 61,700 MT of subsidised seed peanuts distributed via official collectors.
- Minimum farmgate price for 2024/25 set at 305 FCFA/kg ($0.51) – up 9% from 2023/24.
- Key processor SONACOS collected 155,500 MT in 2024/25, while competitors COPEOL and SSII faced funding delays.
🌍 3. Trade – China Dominates as Primary Export Market
- 2025/26 exports forecast at 260,000 MT, a 4% increase based on available supply.
- January–April 2025 exports already reached 247,580 MT, with:
- China is absorbing 99% of Senegalese peanut exports.
- Morocco is a distant second (less than 1%).
- The export season officially ran from March 25 to June 15, 2025.
- Exports require phytosanitary certificates from the National Plant Protection Office.
- GoS required processors to prioritise the domestic supply before exporting.
💰 4. Price Trends – Mixed Signals Across Regions
- Retail peanut prices in Dakar rose by 48% year-over-year (from 675 to 1,000 FCFA/kg = $1.67).
- Meanwhile, other regions saw declines:
- Louga: -24.6%
- Kédougou: -23.1%
- Fatick: -17.3%
- Price disparity indicates localised supply-demand imbalances.
🏭 5. Processing and Industrial Use
- State-owned SONACOS remains the largest processor:
- Operates in 8 locations across Senegal.
- Markets vitamin A-enriched peanut oils (Niani, AradOr).
- Also produces animal feed (YAFAL) from peanut cake via its subsidiary SETUNA.
- Capacity expansion and modernisation of facilities are ongoing.
📦 6. Stock Situation
- Ending stocks fell to 150,000 MT in MY 2024/25 (↓ -67%) due to revised output.
- For 2025/26, stocks are expected to fall further to 120,000 MT (↓ -20%) as consumption and exports outpace replenishment.
🧭 Conclusion & Outlook
- Senegal’s peanut sector is recalibrating around more realistic statistics, aligning policy and expectations with actual capacity.
- Despite lower baseline numbers, positive momentum exists in the form of:
- Expanded input access.
- Budget growth.
- Stable export markets (especially China).
- The sector’s success depends heavily on SONACOS, export regulations, and rainfall performance in 2025/26.
Source: USDA