India’s Rice Surplus Reshapes Global Market Outlook as Buffer Stocks Hit Record Highs

India’s rice market continues to command attention from global participants as procurement for government buffer stocks surpassed previous records, supported by strong harvests and robust government intervention. As of end June 2025, India’s rice procurement climbed to 53.11 million tonnes—a 1% year-on-year increase—leaving the nation with a significant surplus compared to its annual requirement of 41 million tonnes and a buffer stock norm of just 13.5 million tonnes. This exceptional buffer, fueled by a record rice harvest of 149.07 million tonnes for the 2024–25 crop year, solidifies India’s role as a decisive player in global rice supply dynamics. However, regional procurement variances reveal shifting supply contributions among Indian states, with Punjab and Chhattisgarh experiencing declines, while West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and others marked gains. Meanwhile, the government’s strategic moves—such as channeling surplus rice towards ethanol production—underscore a proactive approach to mitigating overhang and stabilizing farmer incomes.

International buyers are keenly watching these developments as FOB export prices have held steady in both Vietnam and India amid global uncertainty. Weather conditions in key Asian growing regions remain neutral-to-favorable, indicating stable yield prospects for the next cycle. Nonetheless, with large inventories and stable to slightly bearish pricing, the market’s focus turns to policy actions, export bans, and shifts in global demand. India’s abundant position helps anchor global prices, but any supply shock or export policy change could quickly reverse the current market calm.

📈 Latest Rice Market Prices (FOB, as of June 21, 2025)

Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Vietnam	Red	Hanoi	0.91	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Paper Dried	Hanoi	1.99	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Long, White, 5%	Hanoi	0.62	0.00	Stable/Ample Stock
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi	0.64	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Japonica	Hanoi	0.74	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Homali	Hanoi	0.79	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	White Glutinous	Hanoi	0.72	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Calrose	Hanoi	0.82	0.00	Stable
Vietnam	Black	Hanoi	1.22	0.00	Stable/Steady Demand
India	All Golden, Sella	New Delhi	1.08	0.00	Stable
India	All Steam, PR11	New Delhi	0.57	0.00	Stable/Soft
India	All Steam, 1121 Steam	New Delhi	0.99	0.00	Stable
India	White, Non Basmati (organic)	New Delhi	1.64	0.00	Stable/Strong
India	White, Basmati (organic)	New Delhi	1.95	0.00	Stable/Premium Segment

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India’s government procurement: 53.11 million tonnes by June 2025 (+1% y/y), far above national buffer requirements.
• Carryover stock: 32.1 million tonnes at FCI plus substantial unmilled paddy.
• Record Indian production: 149.07 million tonnes (2024–25 season); kharif crop = 121.85 million tonnes.
• Key regional contributors: Punjab and Chhattisgarh saw decreased procurement, while West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and others increased contributions.
• Rising stocks: Surplus supports government sales to ethanol sector and potentially more aggressive export policies if needed.

📊 Fundamental Drivers

• Global inventories: Comfortable after back-to-back record harvests in India, offsetting regional declines and stabilizing world stocks. Major exporters (India, Vietnam, Thailand) continue to hold ample inventories.
• Government policy: Focus on buffer management, ethanol supply, and potential future support for farmer returns.
• Speculative interest: Low; physical market dictates trends given assured supply.
• Export policy: India remains the largest supplier. Any changes to export bans or subsidies will strongly impact global price direction.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India (Kharif 2025): Monsoon onset moderately delayed in eastern India, but rainfall has caught up, supporting sowing; western and southern regions report normal precipitation.
• Vietnam and Thailand: Favorable rainfall, no major stress reported; bodes well for planting and potential yields.
• Short-term forecast: Stable to slightly above-average rainfall expected in major Asian rice-growing belts, supporting early crop development and replenishing water reservoirs.

Crop risk is currently low; output forecasts remain strong barring late-season weather extremes.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks: Exporters and Importers Compared

Country	2023/24 Output (Mil. tonnes)	2024/25 (Proj.)	Stock Carryover (Proj.)	Notes
India	127.5	149.1	>32 (buffer)	World’s largest producer/exporter
Vietnam	43.5	43.5	~4.2	Steady output, robust exports
Thailand	33.7	34.0	~4	Steady, weather-dependent
China	147.2	146.9	Large stocks (60+)	Mostly consumed domestically
Philippines	20.1	20.4	~2.8	World’s top importer
Africa (aggregate)	~20	~21	Minimal	Persistent shortfall, rising demand

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Procurement and surplus stock in India point to ample global supply and steady prices in the near term.
• Traders should watch for policy changes in Indian export management and ethanol program developments.
• Weak upside in prices short-term unless weather turns adverse in late monsoon (low probability scenario currently).
• Importers: Secure forward contracts to lock in current stable FOB prices amid global oversupply.
• Exporters and wholesalers: Prepare for longer inventory turns; prioritize quality and differentiation (specialty varieties, organic) to maintain premiums.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Type	Price Today (EUR/t)	Expected Range	Trend
Vietnam	Long White 5%	0.62	0.61 – 0.63	Stable
Vietnam	Paper Dried	1.99	1.98 – 2.00	Stable
India	PR11 Steam	0.57	0.56 – 0.58	Soft/Bearish
India	1121 Steam	0.99	0.98 – 1.00	Stable
India	Organic Basmati	1.95	1.94 – 1.96	Stable

Near-term outlook remains broadly stable across Asia with a slight bearish tilt for lower- to mid-grade varieties amid heavy stocks and modest international demand. Watch policies and weather for any late surprises.