Wheat Market Pressured by Bearish USDA Reports and Higher Global Stocks

The global wheat market continues to wrestle with contrasting fundamentals, showing signs of persistent volatility. Despite news of tighter harvest forecasts in Ukraine and a marginal uptick in local export prices, the broader price environment remains under significant pressure. Heavily bearish USDA reports, highlighting larger-than-expected U.S. wheat inventories and expanded planted acreage, have weighed on market sentiment and driven wheat prices down sharply across major exchanges. CBOT and Euronext futures saw declines of 3.9-8.7% last week amid these updates, with further erosion limited only by localized supply concerns in the Black Sea region. Meanwhile, significant harvest progress in the U.S. and softening winter crop conditions have added to uncertainty about near-term supplies.

European wheat prices remain pressured by a strengthening euro and expectations of a bumper harvest, even as soft wheat export and import volumes are projected to drop significantly. On the demand side, U.S. wheat exports showed remarkable week-over-week growth, but the pace remains below last year’s levels, while Egyptian wheat procurement fell short, signaling increased reliance on imports. The interplay of weather risks, fluctuating currency values, and speculative activity is setting the stage for continued volatility as the Northern Hemisphere harvests unfold and demand signals remain mixed.

📈 Latest Wheat Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract/Type	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT (Chicago)	SRW Wheat (Jul)	$194.3/t	-4.5%	Bearish
Kansas City	HRW Wheat (Jul)	$185.9/t	-8.7%	Bearish
Minneapolis	HRS Wheat (Jul)	$221.6/t	-3.9%	Bearish
Euronext (Paris)	Wheat (Sep)	€195/t ($230/t)	-4.7%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Reports: U.S. wheat stocks as of June 1 were 23.15 mln tons, exceeding forecasts by 1.8% and up 4.19 mln tons YoY.
• U.S. Plantings: 45.478 mln acres, up from both prior estimates and last year’s seedings.
• U.S. Export Dynamics: Weekly U.S. wheat exports surged 70.5% (434,500 t), but MY 2025/26 exports lag last year’s pace by 7.9%.
• EU Harvest: EC forecasts a 15% YoY increase in soft wheat output (128.2 mln t); however, 2024/25 exports are expected to drop 35% (19.9 mln t), with imports also falling.
• Ukraine Crop: Argus cut Ukraine’s forecast to 21.88 mln t (USDA: 23 mln t). Soft yields in the south are reducing market selling pressure.
• Egyptian Demand: Egypt procured 3.9 mln t locally (vs. 4-5 mln target), suggesting higher upcoming import needs.
• Currency Impact: Euro appreciation undermines EU grain competitiveness.

📊 Wheat Market Fundamentals

• U.S. Stocks: Highest June 1 holdings in recent years, boosting global supply.
• Crop Condition: 37% of U.S. winter wheat threshed (vs. 52% last year); winter wheat rated Good/Excellent: 48% (down 1%). Spring wheat: 53% G/E (down sharply from 72% YoY).
• Speculative Positioning: Rising risk-off sentiment due to ample inventories and favorable weather in major production zones.
• Ukraine/Black Sea: Export prices rose to $208-211/t for food wheat, $199-201/t for feed wheat amid lower yield estimates and rapid delivery premiums.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• US Great Plains & Midwest: Generally favorable conditions, though isolated dryness persists; impacts on late-season yields remain possible.
• EU & Black Sea: Mild, wet conditions supporting yields in most areas, but Ukraine’s south reports below-average results in initial harvests.
• Forecast (next 7 days): Models indicate moderate rainfall across most wheat belts, limiting significant weather-induced supply risks in the short term.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	Production Est. (2025/26, mln t)	Stocks (latest, mln t)	Exports (2024/25, mln t)	Imports (2024/25, mln t)
EU	128.2	–	19.9	7.3
USA	49.3*	23.15	1.28 YTD	–
Ukraine	21.88–23	–	~12*	–
Egypt	~9	–	–	~12.5*

*Approximate/derived from current USDA and market reports

💶 Spot Market Prices Update (EUR/t)

Origin	Protein	Location	Delivery Terms	Current Price (€)	Previous Price (€)	Update Date
US (CBOT)	11.50%	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.21	0.22	2025-07-01
FR (Paris)	11.00%	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.26	2025-07-01
UA (Odesa)	11.00%	Odesa	FOB	0.19	0.19	2025-07-01

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (Chicago): Range $190–196/t. Technical resistance likely amid bearish fundamentals; watch for post-report corrections.
• Euronext (Paris): €194–197/t. Strengthening euro seen as limiting near-term upside.
• Ukraine (Odesa): $208–212/t for food wheat. Premiums remain possible amid delayed selling and ongoing harvest volatility.

🔗 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish USDA data and large U.S. stocks provide continued downside risk for futures.
• Short-term rallies possible if weather turns adverse or export pace improves notably.
• Focus on Black Sea port offers as local supply tightness may support premiums.
• Monitor speculative positioning and currency movements, especially the euro/dollar exchange rate.
• For importers, phased purchasing strategies recommended to capitalize on price dips.