Bearish Winds Persist in Global Soy Market Amid Favorable US Weather, Weak Demand, and Rising Stocks

After a turbulent week dominated by bearish fundamentals, the global soybean market faces persistent downward price pressure. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) July soybeans futures declined sharply by 3.3% to $376.3/t, with November slipping 1.9% to $377.4/t. Recent USDA figures heightened the sense of oversupply: soybean stocks as of June 1 reached 27.43 million tons — 2.9% higher than analyst expectations and up over 1 million tons year-on-year. Planting in the US came in below expectations at 83.38 million acres, but this bullish note was tempered by robust old-crop stocks and slowing exports, which fell 11.4% week-on-week. Meanwhile, favorable weather and precipitation forecasts for the next week are anticipated to further support crop quality, potentially boosting yields.

Globally, the market contends with weak export demand — partly due to pending legislative uncertainty over a possible 10% export duty in key regions, waning meal demand, stronger competition from South America, and declining energy prices linked to oil and rapeseed market trends. Ukrainian GMO soybeans for July port delivery hold at $382–385/t, but non-GMO demand evaporated from ports and peaked at $390–410/t at the western border. Competitive offers from China, India, and the US add further downward pressure. With processors curbing purchases and global stock trends favoring supply, the soy market outlook remains cautious, especially as energy markets and rapeseed supply create additional pricing headwinds.

📈 Prices: International Soybean Markets

Exchange/Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Currency	Market Sentiment
CBOT (Jul 2025)	Futures	Chicago, US	–	376.3	389.1	-3.3%	USD/t	Bearish
CBOT (Nov 2025)	Futures	Chicago, US	–	377.4	384.9	-1.9%	USD/t	Bearish
CN, Beijing	Yellow, Organic	Beijing, CN	FOB	0.75	0.76	-1.3%	EUR/kg	Weak demand
CN, Beijing	Yellow	Beijing, CN	FOB	0.67	0.68	-1.5%	EUR/kg	Weak demand
US, Washington D.C.	No.2	Washington D.C., US	FOB	0.34	0.32	+6.3%	EUR/kg	Stable
UA, Odesa	–	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.35	0.35	0%	EUR/kg	Low volume
IN, New Delhi	Sortex clean	New Delhi, IN	FOB	0.72	0.7	+2.9%	EUR/kg	Seasonal

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Report (July 1): US stocks at 27.43 Mt (+2.9% vs. forecasts), reflecting persistent surplus.
• Soybean plantings: 83.38m acres, below previous estimates; slightly supportive but outweighed by supply glut.
• 2024/25 US exports YTD: 45.85 Mt (91% of full-season forecast; 10.3% above last year).
• Weekly exports (June 20–26): down 11.4% to 224.8 kt due to weaker international demand.
• Ukraine: GMO soy at $382-385/t at port; limited non-GMO port demand, higher prices at western border ($390-410/t).
• Speculation on a 10% export duty in Eastern Europe is stalling spot activity.
• South American competition continues to expand global supply.
• Weak processor demand due to soybean meal glut and falling oil prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• US Crop Conditions: 66% good/excellent (flat W/W), 67% last year; precipitation forecast should improve prospects further.
• Global Inventories: Large US carryout plus South American supply signals end-season surpluses.
• Active rapeseed harvest (with prices down 6.7% weekly) is adding pressure to oilseeds overall.
• Decline in crude (Brent Sep -6.3% to $66.8/barrel) and OPEC+ policy are dragging vegoil complex and biofuel feedstock demand lower.
• US stance on Iran sanctions adds further downside to the energy complex, pressuring related agricultural commodities.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• US Midwest: After a period of stable conditions (66% rated good/excellent), precipitation is expected over the next week, supporting yields and potentially increasing already ample supply.
• South America: Seasonally stable, with Brazil and Argentina approaching post-harvest lull, offsetting some upward pressure in the northern hemisphere.
• Ukraine: Weather largely supportive for the end of the soybean campaign, with port delivery windows closing soon.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks (Top Exporters/Importers)

Region	2023/24 Prod. (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)	2024/25 Export Forecast (Mt)
USA	114	27.4	50.4
Brazil	154	34	95
Argentina	50	7.3	5
China (Import)	18	22	101 (imports)
EU (Import)	2.6	1.2	14 (imports)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bearish drivers dominate as high stocks and good growing weather suggest further downward pressure short term.
• Buyers should monitor Ukraine delivery windows and China/India offers for attractive near-term FOB deals.
• Sellers advised to hedge new crop on rallies; weakness in related vegoils and rapeseed adds to downside risk.
• Keep an eye on final US planting/emergence figures and weather model revisions for late July; potential for weather rallies if forecasts change.
• Energy market volatility is a wildcard but presently favors further softness in oilseeds.
• Monitor export policy developments in Ukraine/EU for sudden demand pivots.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Region	Spot Price (USD/t)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
CBOT (USA)	376.3	Down/Steady (370–375)	Bearish
Ukraine Port	382–385	Down/Steady (380–384)	Bearish
CN, FOB	0.75 (EUR/kg)	Down/Steady (0.73–0.75)	Cautious