Rice Market Sinks as India Floods Global Supply – Outlook and Pricing Insights

The global rice market is witnessing a significant turning point mid-2025, marked by falling export prices and a sweeping shift in supply dynamics. Most notably, Vietnam’s 5% broken rice has dropped to $399/MT—$228/ton below the year’s average—under pressure from surging global supply and less enthusiastic import demand. The pronounced driver: India’s aggressive export policy, following the removal of restrictions and a record production forecast of 214.2 million tons for 2025. India aims to export a staggering 21.5 million tons, cementing its dominance and placing downward pressure on international prices.

Meanwhile, major import markets like the Philippines have sharply reduced volumes (down 46.5% as of March 2025) as domestic harvests improve and governments adapt their strategies. On the supply side, favorable weather in both India and Japan supports expanded rice cultivation, with Japan adding 23,000 hectares this year in response to earlier shortages and price spikes. With ample supply from both established and new acreage and sluggish demand, sellers face mounting competition, while buyers benefit from increased options and attractive pricing. As weather outlooks remain positive, and global stocks firm up, the rice market is poised for continued softness, though volatility could return if policy or climate conditions quickly shift.

📈 Prices: Key Rice Quotes on Major Exchanges

Origin	Type	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	0.62	0.62	2025-06-21	Bearish
Vietnam	Jasmine	Hanoi	0.64	0.64	2025-06-21	Bearish
Vietnam	Japonica	Hanoi	0.74	0.74	2025-06-21	Bearish
India	1121 steam	New Delhi	0.99	0.99	2025-06-21	Bearish
India	White, non basmati (organic)	New Delhi	1.64	1.64	2025-06-21	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand: Market Drivers

• India’s Export Policy: Lifting of export restrictions and a target of $100bn in agri-exports by 2030. 2025 export projection: 21.5 million tons.
• Production Booms: High yields and expanded rice acreage in India (214.2 million tons forecast for 2025). Japan is adding 23,000 hectares to rice land.
• Demand Weakens: Philippines’ rice imports -46.5% YoY to 0.64m tons (as of March 2025) due to prospects of a strong harvest and government policy shifts.
• Import Strategies: Major importers scaling back as local harvests rebound—the Philippines and Japan most notable.
• Trade Competition: Vietnam, Thailand, and other exporters under price pressure as India reclaims global market share.

📊 Fundamentals: Production, Stocks & Comparative Data

Country	2024/25 Prod. (mil. tons)	2024/25 Exports (mil. tons)	2024/25 Imports (mil. tons)	Stock Changes Trend
India	214.2	21.5	Negligible	Up (large harvest, higher stocks)
Vietnam	~43*	6.5-7*	Negligible	Number steady, exports pressured
Thailand	~30*	8-9*	Negligible	Steady
Philippines	20-21*	Minimal	1.5-2*	Stock building

*Latest available estimates; will update with new USDA release

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• India: Favorable monsoon forecast for July–August; timely rainfall supports sowings in major states. No major drought threat in IMD seasonal update.
• Vietnam: Consistent rains in Mekong Delta; localized floods but no widespread losses reported. Slight risk of disease if humidity stays high.
• Thailand: Regular rains; above-average water reserves in Chao Phraya basin. Yields expected to remain strong.
• Japan: Mild and moist conditions, supporting newly expanded cultivation areas.

📆 Market & Trading Outlook

• Short-term Bearish: Large supply from India, scaling down of import demand, and muted Chinese buying activity support further price downside near term.
• Expect tight competition among exporters—watch for aggressive discounting.
• Buyers should capitalize on low prices for near-term coverage—longer-term contracts may offer value lock-in.
• Producers must watch closely for weather shocks or possible policy reversals in India that could reverse sentiment.
• Monitor flood and disease risks, especially in key Asian deltas, for any signs of an inflection point in supply.

⏭️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Date	Vietnam 5% Broken (USD/MT)	India Parboiled (USD/MT)	Market Sentiment
2025-06-22	397	415	Bearish
2025-06-23	396	413	Bearish
2025-06-24	395	412	Bearish

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