The global raisin market is currently witnessing turbulent times, with India—traditionally a heavyweight producer at the center of an extraordinary price rally. Over the last month, Indian raisin prices surged to unprecedented levels, sparked by a perfect storm of sharply reduced production, collapsing carryover stocks, and intense speculative buying. Maharashtra’s Sangli and Tasgaon markets have seen spot prices rocket to $4.94–$5.18 per kg, more than double the rates recorded in June last year, with expectations that prices could soon breach $6.00 per kg.
Exporters are struggling with high domestic prices that now threaten India’s competitiveness in the world market. Meanwhile, production shortfalls combined with a smaller-than-usual carryover inventory promise at least another 8–9 months of supply tightness until the next harvest arrives. Trading behavior across Indian wholesale and physical markets reflects a sense of caution and profit-taking, even as traders anticipate further upward pressure as demand escalates during the festive season. Market participants must navigate this volatile environment with clear strategies, as further corrections may be brief and overshadowed by structural supply deficits. Below, we break down the drivers behind this extraordinary market, compare global fundamentals, and provide a data-rich forecast to guide trading and procurement decisions in this high-stakes period.
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📈 Price Overview & Key Exchange Snapshot
| Origin | Product Type | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (EUR) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | Golden, Grade AA | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.91 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| India | Brown, Grade AA | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.45 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| India | Black, Grade AA | New Delhi (FOB) | FOB | 1.40 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| Turkey | Sultanas, Type 10, Grade A | Malatya (FOB) | FOB | 4.05 | +0.15 | Bullish |
| Turkey | Sultanas, Type 9, Grade A | Malatya (FOB) | FOB | 3.65 | +0.15 | Bullish |
| Turkey | Sultanas, Grade RTU | Malatya (CIF) | CIF | 2.40 | 0.00 | Bullish |
| China | Sultanas, STD | Hamburg (FCA) | FCA | 2.04 | -0.05 | Steady/Soft |
| Chile | Flame Jumbo | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 2.35 | -0.03 | Steady/Soft |
| Netherlands (AF) | Feed, Brown | Dordrecht (FCA) | FCA | 1.77 | -0.02 | Weak |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Reduced output in India: Production in key regions has fallen from 22,000–24,000 truckloads (2023) to just 14,000–16,000 projected in 2025 (down 35–40% in two years).
- Crashing carryover stocks: Stocks fell from 2,500–3,000 truckloads (2024) to as little as 500–600 truckloads for 2025.
- Bullish market sentiment: Speculative activity and aggressive buying have fueled a weekly price rally of up to $1.20/kg in India. Traders are cautious but anticipate further gains post-correction.
- Steady but nervous export demand: India’s exports slipped to 46,738 tonnes (-2% YoY). High local prices are eroding India’s global price competitiveness, with March 2025 exports dropping 60% year-on-year.
- Physical supply tightness: Daily arrivals in key Indian markets jumped (35–40 to 75–80 truckloads) as prices surged, but remaining inventory is concentrated in strong hands and not broadly available to market.
- Festive & seasonal effects: Domestic demand is expected to intensify ahead of the Indian festive period (August–October), sustaining price support in absence of new crop arrivals before early 2026.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Context
| Country | 2024 Production (est.) | 2024/25 Carryover | Avg. Export Price (USD/kg) | Export Volume 2024/25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 18,000–20,000 truckloads | ~500–600 truckloads | 4.94–5.18 | 46,738 t |
| Turkey | Plentiful, steady (no major reduction reported) | Ample | 2.40–4.05 | N/A |
| China | Steady | Normal | 2.04 | N/A |
| Chile | Normal | Normal | 2.35 | N/A |
Last year in June, Indian raisins traded at just $1.93–2.17/kg—less than half of current prices—illustrating the historic nature of this rally.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Implications
- Maharashtra: Recent monsoon patterns show variability with below-average rainfall in grape-growing regions. Prolonged dry spells and intermittent high temperatures could stress vines and may impact the size and quality of the next raisin crop.
- Turkey/China: Weather remains generally favorable; no exceptional issues reported. These suppliers are likely to maintain steady output near term.
- Impacts: Weather risk for India remains elevated. Any further reduction in rainfall or unseasonal heat could exacerbate supply tightness into 2026. Monitor regional forecasts for Maharashtra closely.
⏳ Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Procurement: Secure short- to medium-term requirements now, as supply is unlikely to ease until February/March 2026.
- Hedging: Consider partial profit taking if exposed to earlier long positions, but maintain core cover for Q3–Q4 2025 demand.
- Exporters: Monitor international competitor price offers; India is increasingly uncompetitive above $5.00/kg.
- Fundamentals: Watch for sharp but brief corrections; structural deficit suggests any softness will be short-lived.
- Weather: Stay alert for Maharashtra weather shifts—a poor monsoon could trigger further price spikes.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Location | Current Price (USD/kg or EUR/kg) | 3-Day Outlook | Forecast Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sangli/Tasgaon (IN) | 4.94–5.18 USD | Bullish/Higher | 5.05–5.40 USD |
| Delhi (IN, wholesale) | 4.22–5.42 USD | Steady/Firm | 4.25–5.50 USD |
| Malatya (TR, FOB) | 3.55–4.05 EUR | Steady to Firm | 3.60–4.10 EUR |
| Dordrecht (NL, FCA) | 1.77–2.35 EUR | Stable/Weak | 1.75–2.32 EUR |
