China Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26: Stable Rice, Higher Wheat & Corn Production Amid Import Controls

China Grain & Feed Outlook 2025/26: Stable Rice, Higher Wheat & Corn Production Amid Import Controls

Headline:

China’s grain policy continues to prioritise food security and import substitution. While corn, wheat, and rice production rise slightly, imports remain tightly controlled through trade policy, strategic reserves, and feed reform. The focus remains on self-sufficiency and reducing reliance on U.S. supply chains.

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📊 1. Key Forecast Figures – Marketing Year 2025/26

Commodity	Production	Imports	Consumption	Ending Stocks
Corn	298 MMT	8 MMT	321 MMT	180 MMT
Wheat	141 MMT	6 MMT	153 MMT	121 MMT
Rice	146 MMT	2.6 MMT	148 MMT	104 MMT
Sorghum	3.1 MMT	5 MMT	8 MMT	0.3 MMT
Barley	2.3 MMT	10 MMT	12.2 MMT	0.4 MMT

 

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🌽 2. Corn – Modest Growth, but Imports Under Tight Control

• Planted area: 44.7 million ha; down slightly in the northeast due to drought and low prices.
• Yield: Increases to 6.66 MT/ha due to improved varieties and mechanisation, especially in Xinjiang.
• Use: 321 MMT (+1%), driven by return to corn in feed rations.
• Imports: Held at 8 MMT, far below USDA expectations. Import restrictions include: customs delays, TRQ allocation holds, and bonded zone enforcement.
• Key sources: Brazil (first cargo in August), Russia stable, U.S. <10,000 MT/month.

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🌾 3. Wheat – More Feed Use as Price Falls Below Corn

• Production: 141 MMT, up 1 MMT year-on-year. Severe drought in some regions (Henan, Gansu) offset by irrigation in others (Jiangsu, Hubei).
• Use: 153 MMT (+3%) – mostly due to increased feed use replacing corn.
• Imports: Forecast at 6 MMT (up 1.5 MMT) – mainly from Australia, Canada, Russia (U.S. excluded).
• Reserves: Remain high at 121 MMT.
• Policy: Minimum Support Price (MSP) activated at RMB 2,380/MT ($331), stabilising the market for the first time since 2020.

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🍚 4. Rice – Old Stocks May Enter Feed Market

• Production: 146 MMT – stable despite droughts in Guangxi, Anhui.
• Use: 148 MMT – includes feed and industrial use of aged reserve rice.
• Auctions: The Government is expected to release 16 MMT of old rice (mainly from Heilongjiang) into the feed and ethanol sectors.
• Imports: 2.6 MMT – slightly higher due to weak global prices (Thai 5% broken: $425/MT, Vietnam: $390/MT).

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🍺 5. Sorghum & Barley – Substitution Role Declines

• Sorghum imports: Fall to 5 MMT – Australia and Argentina are now the main sources. U.S. nearly cut out.
• Baijiu demand (traditional liquor) for sorghum remains weak due to economic and demographic shifts.
• Barley imports remain robust at 10 MMT. Australia dominates (70% market share).
• Feed use: Barley remains competitive – $28/MT cheaper than corn, supporting demand.

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🛡️ 6. Policy Landscape – Self-Sufficiency & Import Diversification

• Tariffs: Despite reductions (e.g. U.S. corn from 95% → 51%), most retaliatory tariffs still apply.
• New customs rules (effective June 10, 2025): Restrict bonded zone use for grain, tighten documentation, and reduce import flexibility.
• Feed Reform Goals (by 2030):
  • Reduce grain share in feed to 60%, soybean meal to 10%.
  • Increase the use of microbial protein, insect meal, and food waste.
  • Expand forage crop area by 40 MMT.

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🧭 Conclusion & Outlook

• China’s 2025/26 grain strategy emphasises domestic production expansion, cautious stock management, and import minimisation.
• Feed sector reform continues to shift grain demand and reduce dependence on foreign corn, soy, and barley.
• Brazil, Australia, and Russia emerge as China’s top partners, while U.S. market access remains limited.
• The expected release of reserve corn and rice will be key to price dynamics in the second half of the year.

Source: USDA