Thailand Rice Market – July 2025: Export Decline Amid Price Pressure and Global Supply Surge

Thailand Rice Market – July 2025: Export Decline Amid Price Pressure and Global Supply Surge

Thailand’s rice exports declined by 22% year-on-year as global competition intensified. Fragrant rice prices held firm, but most white and parboiled grades saw falling prices. Demand from Iraq and China provided some relief amid shrinking shipments to Southeast Asian buyers.

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📉 1. Export Performance Weakens

Period	Export Volume (MMT)	YoY Change
Jan–May 2025	3.15 MMT	↓ 22%
Avg. Weekly (last 10 wks)	129,000 MT	↓ 29% YoY
Weekly low (Apr 20, 2025)	82,103 MT
Weekly high (Apr 27, 2025)	185,097 MT

• Key reasons for export decline:
  • Return of India to the global market with record rice output.
  • Lower demand from Indonesia and the Philippines.
  • Rising competition and strong harvests in major producing countries.

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💰 2. Price Trends – Fragrant Stable, Others Drop

Grade	May 20	Jun 17	Change
Fragrant (F WR 100B)	$1,050	$1,083	↑ $33/MT
White Rice 5%	$392	$385	↓ $7/MT
Parboiled 100%	$397	$390	↓ $7/MT
WR 15%	$381	$377	↓ $4/MT
WR 25%	$374	$373	↓ $1/MT

• Fragrant rice demand remains resilient, supporting premium prices.
• White and parboiled grades face broad-based declines, reflecting excess global supply.
• The Thai baht stayed stable, offering no additional exporter advantage.

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🌍 3. Trade Dynamics – China and Iraq Support Exports

• Exports to Iraq and China increased, helping offset weak demand from:
  • Indonesia
  • The Philippines
  • Other Southeast Asian markets
• These markets remain sensitive to price and freight competitiveness.
• Exporters report greater difficulty securing long-term contracts amid price volatility and abundant supply globally.

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📦 4. Weekly Export Summary (Excl. Hom Mali)

Week Ending	Weekly Volume	4-Week Avg	YTD Total	2024 Same Period	YoY Change
Apr 13	130,956 MT	132,896	1.70 MMT	2.45 MMT	↓ 30.5%
May 25	138,603 MT	126,616	2.47 MMT	3.47 MMT	↓ 28.8%
Jun 15	122,576 MT	131,046	2.86 MMT	4.03 MMT	↓ 28.9%

Note: Hom Mali (fragrant jasmine) is excluded from totals. Data from the Board of Trade of Thailand.

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📊 5. Market Outlook

• Thailand’s rice sector is facing downward pressure from global competition and stock-heavy markets.
• Unless global prices stabilise or weather impacts production in key rivals, export volumes may remain subdued.
• The premium segment (fragrant rice) is a key differentiator, but not large enough to offset broader weakness.
• Government and exporters may need to recalibrate price offers and logistics terms to stay competitive into Q3 2025.