The global peanut market is navigating a critical period marked by persistent supply-side constraints and differentiated yield profiles across major producing regions. In India, which remains a key supplier, the sector battles high seed costs, lagging mechanisation outside Gujarat, and minimal private sector involvement in seed development. These structural hurdles are impeding both acreage expansion and productivity gains, especially as area under cultivation has dropped sharply from 83.22 lakh hectares in the early 1990s to just 57.54 lakh hectares in 2024-25. While Gujarat still leads with its relatively higher mechanisation and yields, other states with smaller landholdings, poor access to agronomic practices, and limited processing capacity lag behind. This translates not only into significant yield gaps but also higher production costs—over half of farmers’ costs are related to seed acquisition, which at ₹76,772/ha is the highest among oilseeds.
Internationally, Brazil exerts influence on FOB prices, and new crop weather uncertainty is keeping buyers cautious. Meanwhile, government initiatives in India—especially under the National Mission in Edible Oil—aim to enhance seed infrastructure and increase seed rolling rates, yet near-term market tightness persists. With a firming trend in export prices and wide variations in yield and profitability, stakeholders from traders to processors must closely monitor weather trends, cost dynamics, and evolving procurement policy. In the short term, price resilience is forecast as both input costs and logistical hurdles curtail domestic and exportable surpluses.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Peanuts
roasted split, 60/70/80
FOB 1.17 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
birdfeed
CFR 1.07 €/kg
(from IN)
Peanuts
raw
FOB 1.32 €/kg
(from BR)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (€/kg) | Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roasted Split 60/70/80 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.17 | 1.16 | +0.01 | Firm/Bullish |
| Birdfeed | India | New Delhi | CFR | 1.07 | 1.07 | 0.00 | Steady |
| Raw | Brazil | Brasília | FOB | 1.32 | 1.31 | +0.01 | Slightly Bullish |
| Java 70-80 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.06 | 1.05 | +0.01 | Firm |
| Java 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.04 | 1.03 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Java 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.12 | 1.11 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Bold 60-70 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.04 | 1.03 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Bold 50-60 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 1.05 | 1.04 | +0.01 | Stable |
| Bold 40-50 | India | Gujarat – Gondal | FOB | 1.08 | 1.07 | +0.01 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Acreage continues its long-term decline amid high input costs and low mechanisation, especially outside Gujarat. Seed costs account for almost 50% of total production costs.
- Government interventions (seed hubs, subsidy/distribution policies) aim to stabilise area and promote yield gains, but immediate impact limited.
- Brazil: Steady export availability, but logistical bottlenecks and weather risks continue to add cost pressure to raw peanut markets.
- Yield variability remains pronounced—over 25 q/ha in Gujarat, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu vs. 9-13 q/ha in Andhra, Karnataka, UP, Maharashtra (2021-24).
- Downstream value addition and processing capacity remain weak in most regions, reducing farmer incentives to expand acreage.
📊 Fundamentals
- Cost structure: All-India average cost for groundnut (A2+FL) 2021-24 was ₹76,772/ha—the highest among oilseeds. Seed alone accounts for about 50% of total cost.
- Gross returns (A2+FL) for 2021-24 averaged ₹38,017/ha; profitability varies sharply by region due to yield and cost disparities.
- Projected 2025-26 cost of cultivation per quintal: ₹9,962 in UP vs. ₹3,851 in Rajasthan.
- Seed Supply: Seed multiplication ratio (SMR) of 1:10 and delayed distribution/certification affect varietal adoption and output.
- Official initiatives allocate significant funds to new seed hubs and storage, but on-ground implementation slow.
- Private sector seed development limited by economics of bulk seed size and storage risk.
🌦️ Weather Impact & Outlook
- India (Gujarat, South & East): Monsoon progression moderate, with above-average rainfall in Gujarat but localized dryness in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Yield prospects in Gujarat favourable; southern states may see mild stress if dry spell continues.
- Brazil: Recent rain patterns normal; planting window for next crop stable.
- Short-term: Farmers in rainfed zones highly sensitive to early season weather; delays in planting could further tighten supplies.
🏭 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023-24 Production (MT) | Key Trends/Comments |
|---|---|---|
| India | 6.7 million | Output seen flat to lower; area shrinking, yields regionally strong where best practices followed |
| China | 17 million | Stable production, high domestic use |
| USA | 2.5 million | Steady/profitable sector, improved mechanisation |
| Brazil | 700,000 | Growing export share, weather-dependent |
| EU | 0.5 million | Relatively small, mainly import-driven |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Consider forward coverage; price trend is firm due to input/seed cost inflation and uncertain supply scenario.
- Sellers: Hold for seasonal spikes where storage allows; leverage MSP and procurement drives in India or hedge in futures markets where available.
- Importers/processors: Monitor Indian policy on seed distribution and MSP—early signals on acreage/yield will drive price volatility.
- Watch: Weather developments in Indian rainfed zones and delivery updates from Brazilian ports.
- Medium-term: Potential upside if weather stress persists or if further yield improvement remains elusive in key regions.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Type | Current Price (€) | 3-Day Forecast (€) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India, Roasted Split FOB | 1.17 | 1.18 – 1.20 | Firm/Bullish on tight supply |
| India, Birdfeed CFR | 1.07 | 1.07 – 1.08 | Stable to slightly firm |
| Brazil, Raw FOB | 1.32 | 1.32 – 1.33 | Slightly bullish, steady demand |
