So far in 2025, the soybean market has taken center stage in commodities, with soybean oil leading the pack—surging over 30% year-to-date and outstripping the likes of gold, silver, and copper. This exceptional performance is intimately tied to bullish developments in US biofuel policy, especially the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) newly proposed Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for 2026 and 2027. These will notably increase demand for biomass-based diesel, driving expectations that soybean oil use in US biofuel pools will sharply increase. Concurrently, legislation like the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ ensures any clean fuel production credits can only be claimed using feedstocks sourced from North America, further locking in demand for US-grown soybeans.
However, this bullish narrative for oil contrasts sharply with the bearish sentiment weighing on soybean meal. Soybean meal prices have dropped almost 14% since January 2025, pressured by China’s new policies to reduce soymeal usage in animal feed and global expectations for ample soybean supplies. Abundant 2024/25 crops have been capped by a 5.2% y-o-y production increase, and while 2025/26 output is forecasted to contract by just over 1%, the production balance is expected to widen substantially, cushioning stock levels.
For market participants, this divergence underscores the growing importance of monitoring biofuel policy, speculative positioning in oil versus meal contracts, and ongoing supply shifts in the Americas and China. With weather conditions and crop acreage in focus through the upcoming months, the path forward for soybean prices will be shaped not just by supply— but by the energy transition’s accelerating impact on agricultural markets.
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📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
Product | Exchange/Market | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|
Soybean Oil (Aug futures) | CBOT | 54.55 US¢/lb | +11.8% MoM | Bullish |
Soybean Meal (2nd Month) | CBOT | 275.8 US¢/bushel | -8.1% MoM | Bearish |
Soybeans (FOB US) | Physical | €0.35/kg | 0% WoW | Neutral |
Soybeans (FOB IN) | Physical | €0.73/kg | 0% WoW | Neutral |
Soybeans (FOB UA) | Physical | €0.34/kg | 0% WoW | Neutral |
Soybeans, organic (FOB CN) | Physical | €0.75/kg | -1.3% WoW | Weakening |
Soybeans, conv. (FOB CN) | Physical | €0.67/kg | -1.5% WoW | Weakening |
Degummed Soybean Oil (India, landed) | SEA Mumbai | $1,180/t | +11.9% YoY | Bullish |
Soybean Meal (export) | India FOB | $390/t | -20.2% YoY | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- EPA Renewable Fuel Standard: New US targets for biomass-based diesel for 2026/27 are well above industry proposals, forecasting a 250 million gallon/year increase in soybean oil use for biofuels.
- Legislative Support: The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” restricts US clean fuel credits to North American feedstocks, safeguarding domestic demand.
- Chinese Feed Policy: China targets reducing soymeal content in animal feed from 13% to 10% by 2030, pressuring demand for soymeal.
- Global Supply: 2024/25 production up 5.2%, but 2025/26 expected to contract marginally by 1.01%. Production balance rising to 5.2 Mt in 25/26 vs. 4.2 Mt in 24/25.
- Speculation: US soybean oil led commodities in 2025, second only to cobalt, due to policy (not weather or supply shocks). Managed money has increased exposure in oil contracts.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Balances
Country | 2024/25 Prod. (Mt) | 2025/26 Est. (Mt) | Year-on-Year Change (%) | Stock (End-25/26, Mt) |
---|---|---|---|---|
USA | 114.5 | 113.0 | -1.3% | 8.2 |
Brazil | 156.5 | 155.1 | -0.9% | 34.7 |
Argentina | 37.6 | 36.8 | -2.1% | 5.5 |
China | 20.7 | 20.1 | -2.9% | 18.6 |
India | 11.6 | 11.1 | -4.3% | 1.7 |
World | 394.5 | 390.0 | -1.1% | 74.8 |
☀️ Weather Outlook & Yield Watch
- US Midwest: Currently favorable soil moisture; NOAA forecasts indicate moderate temperatures and scattered rainfall through the week. No immediate heat risks. Short-term boost to pod setting.
- Brazil (Mato Grosso): Rainfall slightly above seasonal norms; late planting may see localized excess moisture risks but benefits pod filling.
- Argentina: Mild winter with timely rains over core Pampas region; expectations for trend yields if July/August remain temperate.
- China: Variable; North China Plains experiencing patchy dryness, but forecasted rain next week reduces immediate stress.
📌 Market Outlook & Recommendations
- Soybean oil markets likely to remain well-supported through Q3 2025 due to EPA biofuel mandates and rising crude oil prices.
- Meal prices under further pressure on weak Chinese demand and rising global production balances. Spread trading opportunity: long oil/short meal.
- US domestic soybeans should benefit from North America-centric policy. Upside for cash prices into US harvest if oil strength persists.
- Physical premiums remain narrow outside specialty/organic grades; watch for volatility if weather worsens later in key US regions.
- For producers: Consider selling into strength in oil; for end-users: secure forward meal coverage as downside risk for beans is moderate but rising if Chinese demand weakens further.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
Market | Current Price | 3-Day Forecast | Market Bias |
---|---|---|---|
CBOT Soybeans (Nov Futures) | c. $9.38/bu | $9.30–$9.50/bu | Firm/Bullish |
FOB US (EUR) | €0.35/kg | €0.35–0.37/kg | Steady/Bullish |
FOB Ukraine (EUR) | €0.34/kg | €0.34–0.35/kg | Neutral |