The global almonds market is undergoing pivotal changes as production and trade dynamics shift across key suppliers—the United States and Australia. While the US continues its dominance as the world’s largest almond producer, Australia has firmly established itself as the second-largest, rapidly expanding its orchard footprint and capture of export markets. Forecasts for marketing year 2025/26 are especially bullish for Australia, where output is projected to hit an all-time high of 175,000 metric tons, rebounding from a heat-impacted prior year. Concurrently, the international trading landscape is recalibrating: a recent tariff agreement between the US and China partially restores American competitiveness but leaves Australian exporters in a distinctly favorable position, owing to their advantageous tariff schedule and currency leverage.
Domestic consumption trends remain steady, accounting for about 20% of Australian output and tracking population growth, leaving export channels as the primary beneficiaries of the upcoming bumper crop. Price stability is evident across major European and US almond contract types, mirroring the market’s expectation of robust supply and muted speculative anxiety. At the same time, prevailing weather patterns in Californian and Australian growing regions show conditions ideal for yield maximization, with only moderate weather-related risks on the horizon. Producers and traders should focus on the emerging demand trends in China and the resilience of supplies amidst greater international competition. The next several quarters promise strong trading opportunities as Australian shipments climb and US players recalibrate to the new Chinese tariff regime.
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.78 €/kg
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Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr 20/22
FAS 6.73 €/kg
(from US)
Almonds kernels
natural, 27/30, nonpareil ssr
FOB 9.38 €/kg
(from US)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 18/20 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.75 | 6.75 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Almonds kernels, carmel ssr 20/22 | US | Washington D.C. | FAS | 6.70 | 6.70 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Almonds kernels, natural 27/30, nonpareil ssr | US | Washington D.C. | FOB | 9.35 | 9.35 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Australian Production (MY 2025/26): Projected at a record 175,000 MT (up from 145,000 MT 2024/25). Export share is 143,000 MT, with China absorbing up to 50%.
- US Production: Strong, but competitive pressure in China due to residual tariffs (tariff rate drops from 125% to 45% in 2025 but remains above pre-2025 levels).
- Domestic Use (Australia): Steady at 20% of output; inelastic and tied to population.
- Global Inventories: Expected to rise marginally, given strong harvests and robust export programs.
📊 Fundamentals
- Production Drivers: Acreage expansion and favorable growing conditions are propelling Australian output. US production remains robust but is subject to weather and water supply variability in California.
- Trade and Policy: The revised China-US tariff agreement rebalances but does not fully restore US competitiveness; Australia retains a zero-tariff status for almonds in China. The weak Australian dollar further boosts export attractiveness.
- Speculator Positioning: Relatively neutral, reflecting supply reassurance and muted price volatility.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- California: Mild summer with adequate winter rains; water allocation satisfactory, no major frost or heat spike threats forecasted for next 2 months.
- Australia: Post-heat recovery is underway, with adequate irrigation reserves and moderate rainfall in key growing regions. No major drought risk short-term.
- Outlook: Weather continues to support above-trend yields in 2025/26, limiting upward price risk unless anomalies emerge late-season.
🌐 Global Comparison
| Country | Production (2025/26, MT) | Exports (MT) | Tariff to China (%) | Key Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | ~1,400,000 | ~950,000 | 45 | China, EU, India |
| Australia | 175,000 | 143,000 | 0 | China, EU, Middle East |
| Spain | 115,000 | 86,000 | Most Favored | EU, Middle East |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Growers: Maximize yields amid favorable weather, finalize future sales with forward contracts as prices hold stable near multi-year averages.
- Exporters: Accelerate marketing toward China/Hong Kong given Australia’s continued tariff edge, but maintain vigilance on changing China-US political stance.
- Importers/Traders: Maintain spot and short-term positions; consider locking in supply now ahead of shipping season as forward market remains calm.
- Market Watch: Monitor US weather in August/September for any potential disruptions. Watch currency movements, as further weakening AUD could stimulate more sales to Asia.
⏩ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Market | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| US (Washington, FAS Carmel SSR 18/20) | 6.75 | 6.70 – 6.75 | Stable/Soft |
| US (Washington, FAS Carmel SSR 20/22) | 6.70 | 6.65 – 6.70 | Stable/Soft |
| US (Washington, FOB Organic Nonpareil) | 9.35 | 9.30 – 9.35 | Stable |
Conclusion: The almond market remains well-supplied, with price stability bolstered by coordinated expansions in Australia and sustained output in the US. The focus remains on export competitiveness—particularly into China—and the actualization of anticipated record harvests under favorable weather conditions. Pricing is expected to hold steady in the near-term barring unforeseen weather-driven supply shocks, making spot and modest forward purchases advisable for global buyers.
