The cranberry market is navigating a season marked by both persistent challenges and quiet optimism. Early growing conditions were notably difficult with above-average rainfall and reduced sunlight from May through June, putting drainage systems to the test. Farms equipped to manage excess moisture are now on track for a better-than-expected harvest, suggesting that investments in efficient water management are paying off. Labor issues are climbing, however, as a wave of horsetail weed infestations has pushed growers to increase manual removal efforts—a particular burden for those without robust weed control programs.
Pest management continues to illustrate a divide between conventional and organic cranberry production. While conventional growers are benefitting from effective treatments, organic producers remain constrained by limited options, impacting their immediate crop outlook and demanding more nuanced, long-term strategies. Yet, provided that weather conditions stabilize for the rest of the season, industry sentiment holds that yields could match the seasonal average. In this climate of cautious hope, both market participants and stakeholders are watching the weather and labor situation closely as harvest approaches.
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Cranberries dried
whole, classic
FCA 4.32 €/kg
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Cranberries dried
sliced, soft
FCA 3.90 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cranberries dried | whole, classic | US | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.32 | 4.34 | -0.02 | Bearish |
| Cranberries dried | sliced, soft | US | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 3.90 | 3.92 | -0.02 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Stable Output Expected: Fields with effective drainage remain robust, with yields likely near the seasonal average if weather holds steady.
- Labor Costs Rising: Manual weed removal is increasing labor input requirements, particularly for organic and under-managed fields.
- Export Outlook: US cranberries remain dominant in the EU market, with steady import flows anticipated barring unexpected harvest losses.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weed & Pest Pressure: Horsetail infestation is widespread, straining manual labor resources and increasing costs. Conventional pest management remains effective overall.
- Organic vs. Conventional: Organic producers continue to struggle with limited pest and weed control tools, affecting yield potential.
- Comparison to Last Report: Conditions have worsened since the previous market analysis, with labor and weed challenges now more acute, though weather-related crop losses are less severe than initially feared.
🌦️ Weather Outlook and Yield Impact
- Current weather is stabilizing, but the forecast indicates continued variability with a mix of mild rain and sunshine across main US and Canadian producing regions.
- Soil moisture remains above average, which supports yield, provided dry-down occurs pre-harvest.
- If early July brings excessive rainfall, risk of berry rot rises; however, current models suggest mostly moderate precipitation and warming trends over the next 7 days in the Midwest and northeast US.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023 Prod. (t) | 2024E Prod. (t) | Ending Stocks (t) | Market Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 388,000 | ~390,000* | 41,500 | ~60 |
| Canada | 140,000 | 142,000 | 13,200 | ~22 |
| Chile | 92,000 | 93,500 | 9,800 | ~14 |
| EU | 14,000 | 14,100 | 2,200 | ~2 |
*2024 estimate pending final weather outcome
📌 Market Drivers
- Persistent rainfall slowing early vegetative growth but improving soil moisture reserves.
- Horsetail weed infestation raising labor intensity and costs.
- Organic production lagging due to limited agronomic tools.
- Moderating global demand for dried cranberries following seasonal price peaks.
- Ample US and Canadian output expected to support supply stability unless late-season weather intervenes.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price movement remains slightly bearish due to strong supply expectations and easing of initial weather fears.
- Monitor labor developments—further wage increases or labor shortages could add upward cost pressure.
- Organic cranberry prices likely to remain firm due to lower supply; conventional pricing may soften short-term.
- Risk of price upside if July weather disrupts ripening or harvest window.
- Importers should consider building inventories now, taking advantage of near-average prices.
🗓️ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Dried Whole (EUR/kg) | Sliced Soft (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-04 | 4.31 | 3.89 | Bearish |
| 2025-07-05 | 4.31 | 3.89 | Bearish |
| 2025-07-06 | 4.30 | 3.88 | Bearish |
Market sentiment remains cautious with a slight downward bias, reflecting ample supply and manageable short-term risks.