The global peas market is entering a phase of dynamic adjustments, balancing low domestic inventories, strategic imports, and shifting sowing trends. Currently, price action for dried peas, both marrowfat and green types from the United Kingdom and yellow and green types from Ukraine, shows modest increases or stabilization over the past week, with buyers and sellers closely watching new crop developments and looming supply from major origins. An important facet driving near-term sentiment is the anticipated improvement in tur (pigeon pea) prices, which has analogues across the broader pulses complex: tight stocks with traders and millers are leading to a cautious tone on spot availability, while expectations for revived imports—especially post-African harvest—raise prospects for adjustments in both Indian and international markets.
Notably, African tur remains the most competitive import at present, but the pace and logistics of arrivals from Mozambique, Malawi, and Myanmar, set amid the backdrop of ongoing monsoon progress in India, will ultimately define regional and global benchmarks. Sowing is progressing ahead of last year in Maharashtra and Gujarat, though lags are noted in Karnataka, and critical rainfall in key growing zones is still needed to cement crop potential. These micro-trends in tur parallel developments in the peas market: global players are factoring in regional planting data, rainfall prospects, and strategic stockholding—all while grain flows set from new-crop pulses in the Black Sea and beyond. Near-term, continued market focus will rest on OEM price competitiveness, the pace of import flows, and evolving weather outlooks, each likely to press volatility higher as trade recalibrates for the post-harvest period and the end of summer trading.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Peas dried
marrowfat
FOB 1.32 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
green
FOB 1.00 €/kg
(from GB)
Peas dried
yellow
98%
FCA 0.33 €/kg
(from UA)
📈 Prices at a Glance
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Closing Price (EUR/ton) |
Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marrowfat Dried | GB | London | FOB | 1.32 | 1.30 | +1.5% | Bullish (tight stocks, import focus) |
| Green Dried | GB | London | FOB | 1.00 | 0.98 | +2.0% | Steady (gradual gains) |
| Yellow Dried (98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.33 | 0.31 | +6.5% | Bullish (competitive, increased buying) |
| Green Dried (98%) | UA | Odesa | FCA | 0.44 | 0.45 | -2.2% | Neutral/Bearish (profit-taking) |
🌍 Supply & Demand Landscape
- India: Domestic arrivals are down; millers’ inventories tight; imports from Africa and Myanmar crucial as the country eyes new-crop harvest in Africa (from August).
- United Kingdom & Ukraine: Steady to bullish FOB pricing, reflecting healthy global demand, with Ukraine yellow peas seeing the largest relative weekly price gain.
- Sowing Progress: Pigeon pea sowing ahead in Maharashtra and Gujarat, trailing in Karnataka; Greater rainfall is required for optimal yield outlook.
- Global Context: Ongoing export competition among Black Sea (Ukraine, Russia), EU, and Canadian origins, with price competitiveness continuing to shift in light of new harvests.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Stocks: Limited trader/miller stocks reinforce upward price bias in India.
- Imports: Cheaper African-origin tur (pigeon pea) outcompetes domestic; steady interest in UK/UA peas.
- Speculative Positioning: Commercial buyers are selectively restocking, but new end-user demand is cautious awaiting post-harvest clarity.
- Government Actions: India is increasing emphasis on import flows—especially post-September as new-crop from Mozambique/Malawi enters supply chains.
🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook
- India: Monsoon progress remains patchy, with crucial rains still needed across Maharashtra and Karnataka to secure pigeon pea yields – ongoing risk if rains underperform in the coming fortnight.
- Black Sea Region: Ukraine/Odesa conditions remain favorable for pulse harvests; minor delays in some EU/Baltic areas, but major crop downgrades are not currently forecasted.
- Forecast (next 10 days): India – stronger rains possible in Western & Central growing regions; Black Sea – below-normal rainfall, favorable for dry pea harvest pace but could lower yields if heat intensifies.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Output (Est, mln t) | 2024/25 Carryout (mln t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 3.1 | 0.7 | -4% |
| Ukraine | 0.85 | 0.12 | +8% |
| India | 2.8* | 0.34 | +3% (pending monsoon) |
| EU (select) | 0.6 | 0.11 | Flat |
*Includes pigeon pea and mixed peas for feed/food
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Expect continued price firmness—reduced arrivals, tight stocks, and import focus to maintain upward bias near term.
- Medium-term: Monitor African shipments post-Sept 15—price pressure possible if arrivals are robust and weather is favorable for Indian crop.
- Commercial buyers: Buy on dips lest stocks grow tighter—consider scaling in positions before new-crop flows accelerate.
- Exporters (UA/GB): Leverage current price competitiveness while shipping windows remain open; review contract coverage on recent price increase.
- Monitor Indian weather and government policy updates—swift market moves likely if monsoon underperforms.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Type | Origin | Location | Forecast Price (EUR/ton) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marrowfat Dried | GB | London | 1.33 | ↑ Mild Upside |
| Green Dried | GB | London | 1.01 | → Stable to Firm |
| Yellow Dried (98%) | UA | Odesa | 0.34 | ↑ Upside |
| Green Dried (98%) | UA | Odesa | 0.44 | → Sideways |
Forecasts subject to volatility based on arrivals, weather, and government policy shifts.