China Stone Fruit Outlook 2025/26: Peach Production Slips, Cherry Sector Grows Despite Tariff Pressures

China Stone Fruit Outlook 2025/26: Peach Production Slips, Cherry Sector Grows Despite Tariff Pressures

China’s 2025/26 peach production is forecast to decline due to drought and cold snaps, while cherry production and imports are expanding, supported by greenhouses and strong demand. However, U.S. exporters face significant headwinds from high retaliatory tariffs.

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📊 1. Key Forecast Summary (2025/26)

Crop	Production	Imports	Exports	Total Supply
Peach/Nectarine	17.0 MMT ↓ -3%	61,000 MT ↑	86,000 MT ↑	17.06 MMT
Cherry	900,000 MT ↑ +6%	600,000 MT ↑	2,000 MT ↑	1.50 MMT

 

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🍑 2. Peaches & Nectarines

🌱 Production

• Forecast: 17.0 MMT, down 3% YoY due to:
  • Drought in Shanxi/Shaanxi and spring frost in Shandong.
  • Rising labour costs in Jiangsu, Shanghai → shrinking acreage.
  • The farm shifts to cherries for better profitability.
• Yunnan’s diversified climate enables extended peach seasons (Apr–Dec).
• Early, crispy, speciality varieties (e.g., yellow peach, doughnut nectarine) are on the rise.
• Greenhouse use and consumer demand for higher quality extend the market window.

💰 Price

• Prices remain weak despite lower supply.
  • Common open-field peaches: 10–20 RMB/kg.
  • Speciality/greenhouse varieties: 20–30+ RMB/kg.
• Speciality varieties command premiums; oversupply affects conventional fruit.

📉 Challenges

• Ageing labour force: Most farmers are 60–70 years old.
• Labour costs in Shandong are now 20 RMB/hour, up from 2020 levels.
• Pest pressure (fruit fly) and lack of irrigation infrastructure also weigh on output.

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🍒 3. Cherries

🌱 Production

• Forecast: 900,000 MT, up 6% YoY.
• Acreage expanding in Sichuan and Xinjiang, supported by greenhouses.
• Greenhouse cultivation enables February harvests and off-season pricing.
  • Investment per greenhouse: ~1.1 million RMB ($150,000).
• Greenhouses dominate early-season supply but struggle with sweetness vs. open-field fruit.

💰 Price Trends

• Domestic cherry prices are under pressure due to oversupply.
  • Example: Dalian Meizao greenhouse cherry: 70 RMB/kg, down -15%.
• Chilean imports (↑44% YoY in 2024/25) further depress prices.
• U.S. cherries face a 45% total tariff burden, pushing prices up 50%, limiting competitiveness.

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📦 4. Consumption Trends

• Consumers are increasingly price-sensitive amid economic slowdown.
• Demand for high-end varieties (large, sweet, dark-colored) remains strong.
• E-commerce + improved cold chains = wider cherry access, even in smaller cities.
• Peaches: Preference for juicy, sweet, and aromatic varieties.
• The growing popularity of sliced fruit, teas, and dried snacks is driving demand for processed formats.

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🌐 5. Trade Overview

Imports

• Cherries:
  • Chile dominates: 90%+ market share, zero tariffs under FTA.
  • 2025/26 forecast: 600,000 MT (↑ from 552,500 MT in 2024/25).
  • U.S. volumes expected to decline further due to tariffs.
• Peaches/Nectarines:
  • Imports remain modest (61,000 MT forecast).
  • Chile is the leading supplier; Australia has not yet recovered post-tensions.

Exports

• Peaches/Nectarines: Forecast ↑ to 86,000 MT, led by hard peach exports to Russia (+30% YoY in 2024/25).
• Cherries: Limited greenhouse volume for now, but potential in Southeast Asia & Russia.

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⚖️ 6. Policy & Tariff Summary

Partner	Peach/Nectarine Tariff	Cherry Tariff	VAT
Chile	0%	0%	9%
USA	45% (retaliatory)	45%	9%
EU/Spain	10%	10%	9%
Uzbekistan	10%	10%	9%

U.S. fruit faces Section 232, 301, and additional reciprocal tariffs totaling 45%, severely impacting price competitiveness.

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🛍️ 7. Marketing & Sales Trends

• Cherries are now a “mainstream” fruit, symbolised by the “Cherry Freedom” meme.
• Major sales channels:
  • Online: JD.com, Tmall, Douyin, Pinduoduo, WeChat Video.
  • Offline premium: Sam’s Club, Ole, Pagoda, Hema, City Super.
  • Group buys and gifting are popular in Tier 1 cities.
• Origin branding is gaining traction; quality assurance is key.
• Peaches see success via local speciality branding (e.g., Wuxi honey peach) and offline wholesale push.

Source: USDA