The global cumin market is currently facing a turbulent period characterized by short-term price increases yet an absence of a strong, sustained uptrend. In recent days, cumin prices in major marketing yards leapt from 42.77–43.37 USD/kg upward to 46.99–48.19 USD/kg, a reflection of modestly improving domestic demand. Despite this uptick, sentiment across the market remains subdued. Export activity has slumped dramatically, with key international buyers—particularly in Pakistan and Bangladesh—taking a cautious, wait-and-watch approach in response to ongoing trade suspensions and the arrival of a fresh Chinese crop. This has spurred uncertainty, with dealers and speculators hesitant to commit. Farmers in Rajasthan are seizing today’s relatively low price base to offload stocks quickly, channeling funds toward the forthcoming cotton and peanut planting seasons. As a result, analysts expect only marginal fluctuations in cumin pricing, predicting a narrow range in the market for the near term. While local demand may pick up after July 5, providing some support, inventory on commodity exchanges has thinned, and discounted trading prevails.
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FOB 5.28 €/kg
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📈 Cumin Prices: Current Market Overview
| Product | Origin | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | Previous (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumin seeds, green, premium | IR | Tehran | 5.39 | 5.39 | 2025-07-08 | Neutral |
| Cumin seeds, black, premium | IR | Tehran | 8.72 | 8.72 | 2025-07-08 | Neutral |
| Cumin seeds, whole, grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | 5.28 | 5.28 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, grade – A, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | 2.48 | 2.48 | 2025-07-04 | Stable |
| Cumin powder | SY | Dordrecht (NL) | 4.91 | 4.91 | 2025-07-04 | Neutral |
| Cumin seeds | SY | Dordrecht (NL) | 4.04 | 4.04 | 2025-07-04 | Neutral |
| Cumin powder, grade – A, organic | IN | New Delhi | 4.42 | 4.42 | 2025-07-03 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, grade – A, 98% purity | IN | New Delhi | 2.29 | 2.29 | 2025-07-03 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 99% purity | IN | New Delhi | 2.45 | 2.45 | 2025-07-03 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 98% purity | IN | Gujarat – Unjha | 2.43 | 2.43 | 2025-07-03 | Stable |
| Cumin seeds, 99.9% purity | EG | Kairo | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2025-07-03 | Neutral |
| Cumin seeds, black, grade – A | EG | Kairo | 2.23 | 2.23 | 2025-07-03 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Domestic demand: Improving marginally, supporting short-term price gains.
- Exports: Under significant pressure. Trade remains suspended with key partners (Pakistan, Bangladesh), resulting in weak overseas demand.
- Crop situation: Fresh Chinese cumin crop is entering the global market, amplifying uncertainty among international buyers.
- Farmer offloads: Selling pressure from Rajasthan as farmers liquidate stocks for incoming cotton and peanut sowing season.
- Speculative activity: Minimal, with discounted trades on exchanges and limited risk appetite of large players.
- Inventory: Demat account stocks are dropping; exchange trades at 0.009–0.012 USD/kg discount to physical market.
- International trade: Average monthly exports at 15,000–20,000 tonnes, currently far below this threshold.
📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stock Comparison
- India: World’s largest exporter; daily arrivals at major mandis (Rajasthan) about 4,000–5,000 sacks. Inventory pressure remains due to export dip.
- China: New crop adding to global supply. Impact still speculative but influencing dealer behaviour.
- Egypt, Syria, Iran: Offer stable premium cumin, but market largely dictated by Indian and Chinese supply rhythms.
- Export partners: Ongoing suspensions and tepid overseas demand, especially from South Asia, have rebalanced stocks toward the domestic market.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Rajasthan & Gujarat (India): Monsoon progress is satisfactory with no significant weather disruptions reported. This is expected to support normal sowing for next pulses and oilseeds; no additional weather-driven bullishness currently.
- China: Harvest conditions appear favorable, supporting strong new crop arrivals.
- Egypt, Middle East: Stable and seasonal weather, with no production disruptions for export-oriented supplies.
🗺️ Key Market Insights
- Near-term price movement is likely to be narrow: analysts see a potential 0.12–0.18 USD/kg upside, with possible declines of around 0.06 USD/kg as well.
- Domestic demand may strengthen after July 5, helping to stabilize or modestly lift prices.
- Export trade remains a weak link; no signals yet of recovery from major buyers.
- With speculative interest subdued, volatility is likely to stay low—but upside is also limited.
- Farmer selling pressure to persist in the short term until next round of planting finance is secured.
🔮 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🔸 Buy on dips for short-term traders: Near-term price risk favours modest up-moves if domestic demand recovers post-July 5.
- 🔸 Sellers should offload stocks on any significant rally above 48.00 USD/kg, as export demand remains weak and new Chinese crop may pressure prices further.
- 🔸 End-users advised to cover near-term requirements but avoid heavy forward bookings until clearer demand signals emerge post-summer.
- 🔸 Monitor inventory and arrivals at Indian mandis—persistent high arrivals may cap any substantial rally.
- 🔸 Importers: Review alternative origins (Iran, Egypt) for premium cumin if Indian export suspensions persist.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (next 3 days) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (Rajasthan Mandis) | 46.99–48.19 | 47.10–48.30 | Range-bound, slight upward bias |
| Iran (Tehran, green premium) | 5.39 EUR (≈5.85 USD) | 5.39–5.50 EUR (≈5.85–5.95 USD) | Stable |
| Egypt (Kairo, 99.9% purity) | 4.90 EUR (≈5.30 USD) | 4.90–5.00 EUR (≈5.30–5.41 USD) | Stable |