The global millet market is at a pivotal juncture in mid-2025, marked by a fine balance between supply constraints and shifting demand. With sowing reaching approximately 60% completion in India’s key millet-producing regions—particularly Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan, and the Shekhawati belt—attention is sharply focused on the pace of the Kharif crop and overall availability. Despite subdued demand trends and increased competition from alternative grains like maize, millet prices have held firm across major physical markets. This resilience is largely underpinned by limited availability due to tight old stock supplies, constrained new crop inflows, and significant procurement into food grain programs absorbing around 27% of last year’s 14 million tonne output. Continued thin pipeline stocks and underwhelming Rabi season results exacerbate the tightness, leaving little room for oversupply or abrupt price drops in the near term.
While trade activity shows a slight deceleration, the looming gap in fresh arrivals until September-October sets the stage for potential further price firmness. Weather, sowing progress, and regional demand dynamics will remain critical to shaping the market in the weeks ahead.
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📈 Prices: International Millet Market Overview
| Origin | Product | Purity | Organic | Price (EUR/kg) | Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Location | Delivery Terms | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Millet kernels | 99.90% | Yes | 0.79 | 0.85 | +0.01 | Beijing | FOB | 2025-07-08 |
| China | Millet kernels | 99.95% | No | 0.72 | 0.77 | +0.02 | Beijing | FOB | 2025-07-08 |
| Poland | Millet kernels | No | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.00 | Lipsko | EXW | 2025-07-07 |
Sentiment: Firm, with upward bias due to tightness; subdued demand partly offset by limited availability.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Kharif Sowing: ~60% completed; remainder expected in next 2-3 weeks, especially in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Rajasthan.
- Harvest Window: Main crop due in September-October (maturity 80-84 days post-sowing).
- Rabi Season: Markedly lower output in western Uttar Pradesh—fewer supplies expected to reach market.
- Stock Tightness: Only 5% of summer crop reached market; 27% of 2024 output pre-allocated to food grain programs.
- Industrial Use: Steady, keeping market availability limited.
- Demand Trends: Subdued due to maize and low-grade grain alternatives; pipeline stocks thin, but no mandi oversupply.
📊 Fundamentals
- 2024 Output (India): 14 million tonnes (estimated).
- Global Context: India is the leading producer; production and stock constraints continue to shape physical and export markets.
- Major Regions/Markets: Sowing robust in Meerut, Saharanpur, Hapur, Gulavathi, Khurja, Dausa, Nagaur, Ringas, Khatu, and others.
- Trade Activity: Softening, as maize attracts replacement demand at lower price points.
- Export Prices (Indicative): Mouli–Barwala zone (India): 0.29–0.30 USD/kg; traders expect potential firming by 0.01–0.012 USD/kg pre-harvest.
☀️ Weather & Sowing Outlook
- Monsoon Status: Normal-to-above-average rainfall reported in most North Indian millet belts; conducive for remaining sowing efforts.
- Next 15-20 Days: Ashlesha Nakshatra sowing phase in Prayagraj belt anticipated, weather permitting.
- Risks: Any deficit rainfall or late monsoon onset could impair yield potential in later-planted areas.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Production (Mt) | 2024/25 Stocks (Mt) | Import/Export Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 14.0 | 3.3 | Largest producer/exporter |
| Niger | 2.1 | 0.2 | Key African exporter |
| Nigeria | 1.7 | 0.1 | Major African market |
| China | ~1.0 | 0.3 | Import dependent |
| EU | 0.6 | 0.2 | Import demand |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Continue to monitor Kharif sowing pace and monsoon developments; delays may tighten the market further.
- Short-term supply constraints likely to keep prices firm until new crop arrivals in September–October.
- Procurement for food grain programs and steady industrial use will support the market even as replacement by maize tempers demand.
- Watch sentiment in major mandis; a sharp downturn in demand could weaken prices, but risk is currently limited.
- Exporters may benefit from current firmness, but should lock in contracts ahead of any material price escalation.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Market | Current Price (USD/kg) | Expected Price Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Mouli–Barwala (India) | 0.29–0.30 | Firm/Up by 0.01–0.012 |
| Beijing FOB (CN, Organic) | 0.85 (EUR 0.79) | Unchanged to Slight Up |
| Lipsko EXW (PL) | 0.57 (EUR 0.53) | Stable |
