The global corn market is at a crossroads, facing a blend of ambitious production targets, evolving trade dynamics, and challenging weather patterns. India, the world’s fifth-largest maize producer, has unveiled a bold strategy to nearly double its maize output to 86 million tonnes by 2047. This growth hinges on crop diversification, investment in R&D for higher yielding varieties, and a strong commitment to non-genetically modified cultivation—a stance that is increasingly significant as GM corn dominates international trade discussions. Current Indian maize yields of 3.7 t/ha lag behind global leaders, underscoring room for productivity improvement even without GM technology. Domestic policies prioritize fair pricing for farmers and innovation in seed technologies, all while keeping international trade partners on alert amid regulatory caution.
Globally, corn prices have softened in recent weeks, reflecting stable inventories and persistent supply from major origins such as Ukraine and Brazil. From the exchange floors in Paris to the ports of Odesa and Buenos Aires, prices remain sensitive to weather disruptions, particularly across the US Midwest and Black Sea region, where excessive rains and heatwaves threaten yield forecasts. Meanwhile, speculative positions are fluctuating, with traders closely monitoring USDA crop acreage reports, global stocks-to-use ratios, and shifts in demand from key buyers, notably China and the EU. As growing regions contend with weather volatility heading into the critical pollination stage, the corn market is poised for significant volatility—a scenario that rewards vigilance and tactical positioning.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker

Popcorn
expansion, 40/42
FOB 0.81 €/kg
(from AR)

Corn
yellow
FOB 0.25 €/kg
(from FR)

Corn
starch
FOB 1.95 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
Origin | Type/Grade | Location | Delivery Terms | Last Price (EUR/t) | Previous Price (EUR/t) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Argentina | Popcorn (expansion, 40/42) | Buenos Aires | FOB | 0.81 | 0.82 | -1.2% | Bearish |
France | Yellow | Paris | FOB | 0.25 | 0.26 | -3.8% | Bearish |
India | Starch (organic) | New Delhi | FOB | 1.95 | 1.97 | -1.0% | Bearish |
Ukraine | Yellow | Odesa | FOB | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.0% | Neutral |
Ukraine | Yellow feed grade (14.5% moisture, 98% purity) | Odesa | FCA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.0% | Neutral |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Aiming for nearly double current production (from 42.3 Mt to 86 Mt by 2047); currently the world’s 5th largest producer.
- US: Recent USDA planting reports indicate higher-than-expected acreage; weather risks persist but supplies remain ample.
- Ukraine: Maintains strong export pace despite ongoing conflict; Black Sea shipments stable.
- Brazil: Second-crop (safrinha) corn harvest robust; high export potential through Q3 2025.
- China/EU: Demand stable; import appetite dependent on domestic crop outlook and price competitiveness.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Ending Stocks (2024/25): Estimates remain comfortable, though subject to US Midwest weather.
- Speculative Positioning: Managed money holders have reduced bullish bets, in line with broader commodity sentiment shifts.
- USDA Reports: June acreage and stocks reports showed slight bearish tilt due to higher plantings; subsequent yield revisions possible.
- India GM Policy: Continued rejection of GM seeds; focus on science-led yield improvement.
- International Trade: India’s stance on GM corn creates friction with US exporters and influences Asian trade flows.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- US Corn Belt: Mixed conditions—parts of Iowa and Illinois face excess moisture, southern Plains threatened by heat waves. Key pollination phase susceptible to yield loss if extremes continue.
- Black Sea Region: Adequate rainfall supports Ukrainian fields; moderate risks for late summer heat stress remain.
- Brazil: Safrinha harvest progressing well; weather largely favorable, minor dryness in Mato Grosso.
- India: Monsoon patterns normal in main maize regions; some pockets of flooding in Bihar/West Bengal may curb local yields but nationally minor effect.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
Country | 2023/24 Output (Mt) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mt) | Ending Stocks (Mt) |
---|---|---|---|
USA | 389 | 382 | 58 |
China | 288 | 288 | 210 |
Brazil | 131 | 129 | 11 |
EU | 61 | 65 | 11 |
India | 42 | 44 | 3 |
Ukraine | 29 | 27 | 0.9 |
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor US weather closely as crop enters pollination—a critical determinant of global pricing direction.
- Exporters should leverage stable FOB values in Black Sea and South America for near-term sales, as incremental offers indicate limited upside.
- Processors in Asia, especially India, should secure forward contracts; India’s structural moves may support local premiums in second half of 2025.
- Watch for policy signals: Any change in India’s non-GM stance could cause swift trade and price re-alignments.
- Hedge positions aligned to weather risk in US/EU; sustained heat or moisture deficits may trigger corrective rallies.
- Remain alert to renewed Chinese buying; import surges would tighten global balances swiftly.
📆 Regional 3-Day Price Forecast
Exchange/Location | Today (EUR/t) | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days | Sentiment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Paris (MATIF) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.24 | Bearish |
Odesa (FOB) | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | Neutral |
New Delhi (Organic Starch) | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.94 | Bearish/Steady |