Rice Market Outlook July 2025: Ample Harvests and Eased Trade Weigh on Global Prices

The global rice market is witnessing significant downward pressure, as a confluence of record supply estimates, muted international demand, and the easing of Indian export restrictions have converged to pull prices down to multi-year lows. According to the latest Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) all rice price index, valuations have plummeted to 105.5 points—marking the weakest level in nearly five years and a substantial 22% decline year-on-year. Thailand’s export benchmark, the 5% broken white rice, has dipped below the closely watched $400 per tonne mark, now sitting at $395, while offers from Pakistan and Vietnam remain soft in the $380–$390 per tonne range. These declining prices starkly reflect the market’s struggle with slack demand, especially from African buyers maintaining hefty inventories and showing little urgency to restock.

Crop forecasts from major agencies such as the FAO, USDA, and BMI all point toward a record-breaking 2025-26 global rice harvest, propelled by excellent weather in top producers: India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Vietnam. India’s robust monsoon has been pivotal, not only arriving earlier than usual but also generating 15% higher rainfall—boosting paddy planting by 7.4% above last year’s level. Meanwhile, the US is reporting a 19% production increase, further adding to global stockpiles, which BMI projects will push US domestic inventories up by 24%. With India’s gradual rollback of export restrictions making its rice increasingly competitive abroad, and global output more than compensating for isolated regional shortfalls, the international rice market remains amply supplied and under firmly bearish sentiment. Though speculative positioning is now largely neutral, occasional price spikes can occur on short covering. Ultimately, unless an unexpected weather event alters the outlook, the consensus is that rice prices will remain in a subdued channel in the coming months—an environment favoring buyers but challenging sellers.

📈 Rice Prices: Latest Exchange & FOB Benchmarks

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€ / kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Sentiment
Vietnam	Long, white, 5%	Hanoi	FOB	0.60	0.0	Bearish
Vietnam	Red Rice	Hanoi	FOB	0.89	0.0	Steady, Soft
Vietnam	Paper dried	Hanoi	FOB	1.95	0.0	Weak
India	All golden, sella	New Delhi	FOB	1.05	0.0	Bearish
India	White sella, 1121 creamy	New Delhi	FOB	0.88	0.0	Bearish
Thailand	White, 5% broken	Bangkok	FOB	~0.37* (est.)	-2.5	Bearish
Pakistan	White, 5% broken	Karachi	FOB	~0.36* (est.)	-2.5	Bearish

*USD prices converted at 1 EUR ≈ 1.09 USD for indicative comparison.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Record output projected: Major agencies (FAO, USDA, BMI) foresee record rice output for 2025-26 due to optimal conditions in India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
• India’s harvest surges: Early and strong monsoon sees paddy cultivation up 7.4% year-on-year. Last year’s robust crop continues into 2025.
• US and Vietnam production: US rice output up 19%, stocks forecast to rise 24%. Vietnam and Pakistan maintain competitive FOB offers.
• Demand sluggish: African buyers hold surplus stocks, weighing on global trade flows; international buying generally subdued.
• Trade liberalization: India removes export curbs/duties, boosting competitiveness—especially in the basmati and non-basmati sectors.
• Speculative positioning: Net long positions neutralized; risk of short-term price volatility (short covering) remains.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Production Comparison

• Global stocks: Ample, with world inventories swelling amid above-average harvests in major exporters.
• Key exporters: India (leading global exporter), Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan, US (notable output rebound), China (potential near-term demand due to weather).
• Major importers: Africa, the Middle East; for now, inventory overhang restrains new demand.

Country	2025-26 Prod. Est. (Mt)	Stocks YoY (%)
India	>130	+5
China	>149	-1
Vietnam	28	+2
Thailand	21	0
Pakistan	11	+2
United States	8.9	+19

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon arrived early, with June/July rainfall running 15% above average—boosting sowings and crop prospects.
• China: Heavy rains bring risk of local supply disruption but could stoke domestic demand later in the quarter.
• Vietnam/Thailand: No major adverse weather noted; ongoing favorable conditions for main season crops.
• US: No extreme events reported; harvest pace steady, contributing to swelling inventories.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintaining a bearish to neutral market view into late Q3 2025 due to broad-based supply surplus and soft demand.
• Buyers should take advantage of competitive pricing and abundant availability for forward coverage.
• Sellers should watch for short-lived price rallies (short covering) but manage inventory risk proactively.
• Monitor China for abrupt changes in weather-driven demand and any late-season weather risks across Asia.
• No immediate signs of significant market tightening unless severe weather disrupts multiple major producers.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Direction
Vietnam (FOB, 5% white)	0.60	0.60–0.59	⏬ Slight Softening
India (FOB, Golden Sella)	1.05	1.05–1.03	⏬ Flat/Soft
Thailand (FOB, 5% broken)	~0.37*	~0.36–0.37*	⏬ Slight Softening

*Converted from USD 395/t; based on current EUR/USD rates.