The nutmeg market has seen a notable surge in prices, fueled by a sharp reduction in arrivals from key producing areas, especially Kerala, due to persistent heavy rains in late June. Throughout this period, disruptions in supply chains have led to price increases, but the prevailing sentiment among traders and industry stakeholders is that this rally is short-lived. The upward momentum is largely attributed to weather-induced bottlenecks rather than fundamental changes in demand or long-term supply imbalances. Notably, despite firm prices, large buyers from the pharmaceutical, food, and pan masala sectors continue to delay purchases, anticipating a return to more favorable price levels as soon as weather conditions stabilize and crop arrivals resume.
Exporters, too, remain cautious amid limited overseas demand. The market outlook is further clouded by concerns over potential quality deterioration from sustained excess rainfall, though the actual impact will only become evident after the monsoon subsides. With a bumper crop expected—a 20–25% year-on-year increase in production—and much of it yet to arrive, there’s widespread expectation that the current tightness and elevated prices will ease in the coming weeks, restoring stability to both local and export markets.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Nutmeg whole
without shell
FOB 12.40 €/kg
(from IN)
Nutmeg whole
without shell
FOB 6.60 €/kg
(from IN)
Nutmeg
powder
FOB 12.30 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutmeg whole | Without shell | India | New Delhi FOB | Yes | 12.40 | 12.40 | 2025-07-04 |
| Nutmeg whole | Without shell | India | New Delhi FOB | No | 6.60 | 6.60 | 2025-07-04 |
| Nutmeg | Powder | India | New Delhi FOB | Yes | 12.30 | 12.30 | 2025-07-04 |
- Local wholesale prices (late June): $7.43–$7.55/kg (INR equivalent), up $0.60–$0.72/kg from previous week
- Previous month high (May): $7.66/kg
- Mid-to-late June low: $6.59–$6.71/kg
- Market sentiment: Cautiously bearish (short-term bullish due to tightness)
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Production: Expected to rise by 20–25% YoY due to favorable growing weather
- Arrivals: Slashed by heavy rainfall in Kerala and adjoining regions; supply disruptions likely to subside as weather improves
- Consumption: Muted—large buyers (spices, pharma, pan masala) and exporters are largely on sidelines
- Exports: Limited activity; traders hesitant about fresh purchases at elevated prices
- Stocks: Larger crop yet to fully enter the market; inventories expected to rise in July-August
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Main Driver: Weather-induced delays in arrivals; not a demand-led rally
- Speculative Positioning: Minimal—market sees current levels as unsustainable
- Quality Concerns: Excess rainfall raises risk of nutmeg quality deterioration if the wet spell persists
- Buyer Strategy: Waiting for normalization before committing to large volumes
- Seller Strategy: Holding back supply, hoping for further short-lived gains
☀️ Weather Outlook for Major Regions
- Kerala (primary producing region):
- Current: Excessive rainfall, localized flooding, fieldwork delays
- Forecast: Rain intensity to ease over next 5–7 days; normal conditions likely to return mid-July
- Impact: Improved arrivals expected as supply routes normalize; harvest completion expected late July
- Risk: Further heavy rainfall could exacerbate quality losses
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Est. 2024 Output (Tonnes) | 2023 YoY Change | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~23,000 | +22% | Heavy arrivals expected, stocks set to rise sharply July–August |
| Indonesia | ~35,000 | Stable | Normal stock levels |
| Guatemala | ~3,500 | Stable | Minor exporter |
| Sri Lanka | ~1,600 | Stable | Stocks steady |
| EU/US Importers | n/a | n/a | Low pipeline stocks, importers waiting for cheaper offers |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term price strength to persist until supply chains clear—expect volatility into mid-July
- Improved arrivals likely to weigh on prices from late July onward
- Buyers should delay large purchases until price correction sets in
- Sellers advised to capitalize on current firmness, but move swiftly as reversal risk is high
- Monitor weather conditions for potential quality-related surprises
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product | Jul 5 | Jul 6 | Jul 7 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Nutmeg whole (conv.) | €6.60/kg | €6.55/kg | €6.48/kg | Moderately lower |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Nutmeg whole (organic) | €12.40/kg | €12.35/kg | €12.30/kg | Gradually lower |
| New Delhi (FOB) | Nutmeg powder (organic) | €12.30/kg | €12.25/kg | €12.20/kg | Gradually lower |