The global lentil market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty as growing season weather and regional supply dynamics drive price sentiment. With China’s small lentil crop expected to be harvested from mid-August and traders keeping an eye on local weather conditions, the potential for upward price pressure remains tangible—particularly if stockpiling occurs during harvest. Domestic output in China remains limited, making the market sensitive to shifts in both demand and speculative inventory strategies.
International benchmarks, notably Canada and Turkey, are also key reference points, as pricing there influences the cost structure for global buyers. In recent weeks, prices for both organic and conventional lentils have ticked up marginally, reflecting cautious optimism but also underlying concerns over supply. Organic small green lentils FOB China are quoted at €1.35/kg, conventional at €1.26/kg, while Canadian origins command significant premiums, with red football lentils up to €2.48/kg FOB Ottawa. Dry weather and above-normal temperatures in the Canadian Prairies are raising yield concerns, while Turkish production faces similar weather-related uncertainty. Market participants are monitoring USDA and AAFC crop progress reports, global stocks, and shipping activity for further direction in the coming weeks. The next three trading days are poised for moderate price stability, but any weather-triggered headlines could swiftly alter the market’s trajectory.
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📈 Prices & Recent Moves
| Origin | Type | Organic | Location | Delivery Terms | Price (€/kg) | Prev. (€/kg) | Update | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Small, Green | Yes | Beijing | FOB | 1.35 | 1.34 | 2025-07-08 | Firm, Slightly Up |
| China | Small, Green | No | Beijing | FOB | 1.26 | 1.25 | 2025-07-08 | Firm, Slightly Up |
| Canada | Red Football | No | Ottawa | FOB | 2.48 | 2.46 | 2025-07-04 | Premium, Trending Up |
| Canada | Laird Green | No | Ottawa | FOB | 1.65 | 1.63 | 2025-07-04 | Firm, Slightly Up |
| Canada | Eston Green | No | Ottawa | FOB | 1.52 | 1.50 | 2025-07-04 | Firm, Slightly Up |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- China’s production remains constrained, raising import needs—especially for small green lentils.
- Early harvest expected from mid-August; market participants watching for potential withholding/stockpiling by local traders.
- Canadian and Turkish crop sizes in focus as global benchmark suppliers; Canadian supply outlook faces risk from prairie heatwaves and dry weather.
- Ongoing freight and logistics volatility continues to affect supply chains, notably for Europe and Asia-bound shipments.
- Spot market activity is steady, but forward contracts are thin with buyers wary of weather-related market shifts.
📊 Fundamentals & External Factors
- USDA and AAFC crop reports indicate lower-than-expected lentil yields in Canada due to ongoing dryness, particularly in Saskatchewan and Alberta.
- Global ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to contract, maintaining market tightness into early 2026.
- Speculative activity is active; managed money funds hold modest long positions, but physical availability will dictate direction post-harvest.
- Relative strength in pulses is drawing interest from alternative protein sectors.
☀️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- China: Variable weather in key lentil-producing regions, with increased rainfall risk ahead of harvest. Watch for potential delays or crop quality impacts if heavier monsoonal rains develop.
- Canada: Prairie provinces continue to face below-average precipitation and heat, raising yield-loss concerns. The next week remains critical for crop development—any improvement or deterioration will be closely watched.
- Turkey: Temperatures above normal with limited rainfall; potential downside risk to yield and delays in harvest could impact European and Middle Eastern buyers.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Highlights
| Country | 2024/25 Prod. (mt est.) | Stocks (mt est.) | YOY Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2.2m | 300k | -8% |
| Turkey | 450k | 70k | -4% |
| China | 70k | 20k | +2% |
| India | 1.2m | 120k | +5% |
📝 Key Market Insights & Trading Outlook
- Buyers should consider forward coverage, especially if reliant on Chinese or Canadian origins; expect firm pricing through early August.
- Sellers may see stronger bargaining power if harvest delays or weather issues materialize, especially if traders hold stocks off the market.
- Speculators can watch for short-term rallies on any weather scares but should be quick to lock profits as supply clarity emerges post-harvest.
- Monitor Turkish and Canadian export offers closely, as direction here will signal trend for Asian and European importing regions.
- Expect volatility spikes if Monsoon in China or drought in Canada intensify.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Type | Expected Range (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing (FOB) | Small Green, Org. | 1.34 – 1.37 | Stable to Firm |
| Beijing (FOB) | Small Green, Conv. | 1.25 – 1.28 | Stable to Firm |
| Ottawa (FOB) | Red Football | 2.46 – 2.50 | Upward Bias |