Corn Market: Record US Exports, Brazilian Competition & Weather Risks Shape Outlook

The global corn market is experiencing heightened volatility and opportunity as US corn exports surge to historical highs for the 2024–25 marketing year, buoyed by rapid overseas demand and logistic snags in Brazil. According to the latest USDA data, US export commitments have soared to 69.4 million metric tons (approx. 2.73 billion bushels), outpacing not only market expectations but also the agency’s own estimate. This rapid pace—rarely seen in recent decades—signals robust demand and may trigger an upward revision in USDA’s projections. However, history shows that exceeding early-season export commitments usually translates to even stronger final results, though 2024’s backdrop is distinct: South American harvests are robust, meaning the US’s export boost may soon face stiffer competition.

Brazil is set to become a pivotal player with a record crop, but its exports are off to a slow start, allowing the US to fill immediate global needs. Ongoing port congestion, largely due to extended soybean shipments, is holding back Brazil’s corn export surge—but this is expected to be temporary. Meanwhile, trade tensions are rising as the US implements a 50% tariff on select Brazilian imports—a geopolitical move with potential ripple effects on agricultural flows. Regional currency movements also stand to influence South American export competitiveness. If Brazil’s real stays weak, their corn becomes even cheaper for international buyers, possibly edging US shipments out of some markets, especially as Brazil gears up for larger land expansion. With global stocks close-watched and weather uncertainties mounting in both the Americas and Europe, the next few months will be critical for price direction and trade flows.

📈 Prices: Current Corn Market Snapshot

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Updated	Sentiment
Popcorn	BR	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.75	0.74	2025-07-12	Bullish
Corn, yellow feed	UA	Odesa, UA	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-07-11	Stable
Popcorn (expansion 40/42)	AR	Buenos Aires, AR	FOB	0.81	0.82	2025-07-09	Bearish
Corn, yellow	FR	Paris, FR	FOB	0.25	0.26	2025-07-09	Slightly Bearish
Corn, starch (organic)	IN	New Delhi, IN	FOB	1.95	1.97	2025-07-09	Bearish
Corn	UA	Odesa, UA	FOB	0.20	0.20	2025-07-09	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Exports: Record weekly export pace at 69.4 MMT – outstripping USDA’s own forecasts; suggests strong global demand for US origin in the short term.
• Brazil’s Record Crop: Production forecast at unprecedented levels, up 14% y/y, per Conab. Export campaign is delayed by soybean port congestion.
• Global Competition: Brazil’s slower start gives a temporary advantage to US, but anticipated acceleration could weigh on global prices and US export share.
• Forward Sales: 2025–26 US forward sales at 5.42 MMT (excluding China), strongest in 9 years. China remains largely absent from US corn market.
• Geopolitics & Tariffs: US-Brazil trade tensions and new 50% US tariff on select Brazilian imports could shift market flows.
• Currency Impact: A weaker Brazilian real favors Brazilian export margins—could trigger more competitive pricing and future acreage expansion.

📊 Fundamentals & Global Balance

Country	2024/25 Production (MMT)	2024/25 Exports (MMT)	Key Comments
USA	390 (est.)	69.4 (to date)	New record pace; bullish for near-term exports
Brazil	125+ (record, Conab)	40–45 (projected)	Slow export start from port congestion; supply surge pending
Argentina	54	36	Export pace steady; key regional competitor
EU	64	2	Self-sufficient, minor exporter
China	291	<2	Largest importer, spot demand subdued

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Midwest USA: Current forecasts indicate mostly favorable conditions for corn pollination through mid-July with isolated storms in the western Corn Belt. Soil moisture generally adequate. Upside risks if late-summer heat intensifies.
• Brazil (Central & South): Dryness in Mato Grosso easing as scattered rains return—should benefit late harvest and fieldwork, but continued vigilance warranted for potential warmth in August.
• Ukraine & EU: Central Europe and Ukraine facing episodes of heat stress. Yield losses possible if dry pattern persists late July/early August, but current outlook supports trend yields.

📌 Trading Outlook & Key Insights

• Bullish short-term on US supply tightness and record export commitments as Brazilian logistics remain constrained.
• Watch for Brazilian export acceleration from August onward; ample South American crop could trigger global price pressure in Q3.
• A weaker Brazilian real may further boost South American competitiveness.
• Monitor Midwest weather, especially during late pollination—adverse conditions could reignite speculative buying.
• Geopolitical risks (tariffs, currency volatility) may trigger unexpected trade shifts — prioritize diversification and flexible hedges.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (€/kg)	3-Day Forecast (€/kg)	Direction
Odesa, UA (FCA)	0.25	0.25–0.26	Stable to Slightly Up
Paris, FR (FOB)	0.25	0.24–0.25	Slight Downside
Dordrecht, NL (Popcorn, FCA)	0.75	0.74–0.76	Stable to Up