Soybean Market Surges as Ukraine Sets Export Records and EU Demand Accelerates

The global soybean market is witnessing significant shifts in 2025, marked by Ukraine’s record-breaking surge in soybean meal exports and dynamic price movements across key origins. Between September and June of the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine exported 1.07 million metric tons of soybean meal—a staggering 82% jump compared to the same period a year earlier. This sharp increase has been primarily fueled by expanded domestic processing capacity, a fourth straight year of abundant harvests, and robust demand from the European Union. EU nations, lured by competitive pricing and diversified sourcing needs, accounted for 83% of Ukraine’s exports, with Poland remaining the top importer. Not only has demand from the EU increased, but other countries like Turkey and Moldova have sharply raised their purchases, reflecting Ukraine’s growing footprint in the global protein feed market.

Concurrently, soybean FOB prices in major supply regions have shown relative stability despite high export activity—with U.S., Indian, and Ukrainian origin beans trading in a narrow range. Production fundamentals remain strong, but ongoing weather developments, speculative positioning, and shifting global trade flows are all poised to shape the second half of the year. In this report, we analyze the latest price trends, supply and demand fundamentals, global production shifts, weather outlooks for major growing regions, and provide a clear trading outlook for market participants.

📈 Prices: Latest Soybean Market Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.35	0.35	2025-07-09	Stable
IN	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	FOB	0.71	0.73	2025-07-09	Slightly Bearish
UA	–	Odesa	FOB	0.34	0.34	2025-07-09	Stable
CN	Yellow, Organic (99.8%)	Beijing	FOB	0.76	0.75	2025-07-08	Slightly Bullish
CN	Yellow (99.5%)	Beijing	FOB	0.68	0.67	2025-07-08	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Record Ukrainian Exports: 1.07m tons soybean meal shipped in the first ten months, up 82% y/y. Major growth to EU (+51%).
• EU’s Role: EU demand surging due to price competitiveness, making Ukraine a strategic supplier. Poland leads among EU buyers.
• Diversification: Shipments beyond the EU have soared—Turkey (up to 70k tons from 6k), Moldova (+30% y/y), Lebanon (doubled).
• Overflow Processing: Ukraine expanded crushing due to a fourth consecutive bumper harvest, creating oversupply in the domestic market and boosting exports.
• External Factors: USDA crop acreage and condition reports show generally positive U.S. conditions. Brazil is recovering from drought, while Argentina’s late crop benefited from improved rainfall. Speculative positions in CBOT remain near neutral amid cautious sentiment post-harvest.

📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Soybean Production (Mt)	2024/25 Soybean Stocks (Mt)	2023/24 Soybean Production (Mt)
U.S.	114.2	8.6	116.5
Brazil	154.7	27.3	153.0
Argentina	48.2	7.8	46.0
Ukraine	5.2	1.1	4.9
China (Imports)	–	25.2 (stocks, imported)	–

⛅ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• U.S. Midwest: Recent precipitation has improved soil moisture. Outlook for the next week is mixed; heatwaves may develop in the Western Corn Belt, potentially stressing pod-setting crops.
• Brazil: Southern states recovering from earlier drought. Current forecast: normal rainfall, good for late-planted beans. No major cold snaps expected.
• Ukraine: Weather has been favorable, supporting large crops. No severe weather threats seen in the next 3 days.
• China: Central and northeast regions are wetter than average, minor flooding risk, but not yet threatening to soybean output.

⚖️ Global Export Landscape

• Ukraine: Strategic gains in European market and expansion to Near East and Eurasia.
• U.S. & Brazil: Still dominate global exports, though Ukraine is an increasingly important meal supplier to the EU.
• Argentina: Rebounding from previous drought, less aggressive on the export market recently.
• China: Remains the main importer, sourcing actively from both U.S. and Brazil following price opportunities.

🛠️ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Ukrainian export pace—further gains could weigh on meal and bean prices.
• U.S. new crop weather is crucial—watch for Midwest heatwaves that could cut yields.
• Brazil’s recovery in southern regions is boosting supply; global stocks remain healthy, making aggressive rallies less likely near-term.
• Speculators: Maintain a balanced strategy—volatility possible if U.S. weather worsens.
• Processors in the EU: Continue to diversify sourcing, as Ukraine’s pricing advantage persists.
• Importers: Buy dips, especially if export logistics in Ukraine remain smooth and global acreage expands.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Regional)

Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Outlook	Comments
US (Washington D.C., FOB)	0.35	Stable to Slightly Lower	Global supply ample; weather the key upside risk.
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	0.34	Stable	Supportive export demand maintains firm basis.
India (New Delhi, FOB)	0.71	Slight Downward Pressure	High prices may attract import competition; watch exports.
China (Beijing, FOB)	0.68–0.76	Slight Upside	Strong domestic demand and organic premiums.