Bean Markets in Flux: Quality Shortfall Amid Indian Monsoon and Global Inventory Overhang

The beans market is currently at a complex crossroads, as multiple supply, quality, and policy factors converge to shape prices and trader sentiment worldwide. India—the world’s largest producer and consumer of moong beans—finds itself dealing with the twin effects of a robust harvest and pronounced quality issues due to excessive and untimely rainfall. While the summer moong crop has arrived in quantity across Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar, the proportion of premium grade beans is falling short, pushing up price premiums for select high-quality lots. Parallelly, an oversupply of lower-grade stock is capping any broad-based market rally, keeping bulk prices range-bound and exacerbating volatility.

Compounding this supply glut, India’s government interventions—procuring at minimum support prices but auctioning at discounts—have undermined confidence and squeezed the profit margins of private traders. Meanwhile, international bean prices, especially for kidney, fava, and mung beans, are showing slight week-on-week declines on key exchanges, reflecting adequate inventories and limited buying interest. With the Kharif season’s sowing robust in Rajasthan and Karnataka, output prospects are positive, but much hinges on continued favorable weather and the government’s procurement strategies post-Kharif arrival.

Traders and processors are best advised to adopt a cautious strategy, monitor Indian monsoonal developments, and watch for clarity in domestic policy. Until the market digests the Kharif output and government sales clarify, volatility is likely to remain elevated. Both regional physical and global FOB bean prices appear to have limited upside in the near term, barring any weather surprises or sharp policy shifts.

📈 Latest Market Prices

Product	Origin	Type	FOB Price (EUR/MT)	Prev. Price (EUR/MT)	Update Date	Weekly Change	Sentiment
Kidney beans	BR	Dark red	1.42	1.44	2025-07-11	-0.02	Neutral to Bearish
Kidney beans	BR	Brown eye	1.36	1.38	2025-07-11	-0.02	Neutral to Bearish
Kidney beans	GB	White	1.35	1.37	2025-07-11	-0.02	Neutral
German beans	GB	Split	0.95	0.97	2025-07-11	-0.02	Bears in Control
Fava Beans	GB	Sortex, small	1.16	1.18	2025-07-11	-0.02	Neutral
Mung beans	CN	Organic, 99.5%	1.49	1.48	2025-07-08	+0.01	Slightly Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Indian Harvests: Summer moong harvest underway; plentiful supplies but quality concerns due to rainfall.
• Kharif Prospects: Sowing robust in Rajasthan and Karnataka, potentially higher output if weather remains favorable (38–40% of season is critical period).
• Global Inventories: Large supplies of beans unsold from previous Indian Rabi harvest; international stocks comfortable.
• Government Policy: Procurements at high MSP (INR 8,768/quintal) vs. market prices lower by INR 20–25/kg; discounted off-season auctions distorting private trade.
• Speculative Positioning: Traders are wary due to uncertain government actions; minimal speculative buildup.

📊 Fundamentals

• India’s Annual Moong Production: 4.9–5 million metric tons (Rabi + Kharif).
• Current Price Bands: INR 5,500–6,800/quintal (~$660–816/MT) for market moong. Premiums up by INR 200/quintal (~$2.40/MT) for high quality.
• International Reference Prices: FOB Brazil/UK kidney beans €1.35–1.42/kg, China organic mung beans €1.49/kg.
• MSP: Government purchases at INR 8,768/quintal ($1,052/MT) remain above open market prices.
• Unsold Stock: Large stocks from Rabi remain unsold due to unattractive pricing for bulk buyers.

☔ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India: Monsoon onset has been timely; however, excess moisture has affected moong quality in key regions. Next 30-40 days are critical for Kharif sowings, especially in Rajasthan & Karnataka.
• Weather Risks: Continued favorable rainfall could boost Kharif yields, but erratic monsoon patterns or any late-season dryness/flooding will impact quality and harvest volume.
• Global: No major adverse weather reported for Brazilian or Chinese bean production hubs.

🌏 Production & Stocks: Major Players

Country	2024E Output (MMT)	Stocks Trend	Market Note
India	4.9-5.0	High	Large unsold Rabi stocks, Kharif output outlook robust
Brazil	~2.9	Stable	FOB prices slightly down, inventories available
China	~1.1	Stable	Mung/Kidney bean FOB up marginally, strong organic export flow
UK (Fava/Kidney)	~0.15	Stable	FOB prices down, crop condition good

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Short-term caution: Avoid over-committing on high grade moong until post-Kharif clarity on yields and government auction policies.
• 🔎 Monitor Indian monsoon developments, especially in Rajasthan and Karnataka.
• 🔄 Diversify sourcing between lower- and higher-grade beans to balance quality risk and cost.
• 🏦 Avoid speculative long positions in kidney and mung beans; market undertone is weak and vulnerable to further downside.
• 🛒 International buyers: Use dips towards lower end of FOB price range for coverage, especially if Indian Kharif output surges.

📅 3-Day Price Forecast (Key FOB Markets)

Product	Exchange/Market	Current Price (EUR/MT)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/MT)	Trend
Kidney beans (dark red)	Brazil, FOB	1.42	1.40–1.42	Downside bias
Kidney beans (brown eye)	Brazil, FOB	1.36	1.35–1.36	Soft
Kidney beans (white)	London, FOB	1.35	1.34–1.36	Rangebound
Mung beans (organic)	Beijing, FOB	1.49	1.48–1.51	Slightly firmer on quality scarcity