The Vietnamese mango market is enjoying a robust growth phase, driven by rising global demand, competitive prices, and Vietnam’s ability to supply high-quality fruit during China’s off-season. In May 2025 alone, mango exports soared to 41.1 million USD, up 15.5% from the previous year, with total export earnings in the first five months exceeding 212 million USD—a remarkable 10.5% annual increase. This momentum has positioned mangoes firmly in Vietnam’s top 10 exported fruits and vegetables, signaling both structural improvements in the industry and favorable global market conditions.
Central to Vietnam’s competitive edge are consistent quality, low labor and logistics costs, and an average export price of just 0.70 USD/kg—undercutting many regional competitors such as Thailand, Peru, and Australia. While China remains by far the dominant buyer, accounting for 97% of Vietnam’s mango exports, the reach now extends to over 30 markets, including high-standard destinations like the US, Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands.
The capacity to deliver GAP-certified fruit and specialty varieties (like Hoa Loc and Cat Chu) when Chinese domestic supply wanes enables Vietnamese growers to command substantial premiums, sometimes beyond 4.20 USD/kg. Further growth is likely as Vietnam targets 1.5 million tons annual mango output and export earnings of 650 million USD by 2030. Risks remain, particularly from seasonal Chinese competition leading to potential price collapses (as low as 0.12–0.20 USD/kg at times), and weather or trade disruptions could impact momentum. However, the current trajectory bodes well for both exporters and buyers in a dynamic global mango market.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Mango dried
chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm MOISTURE 13 – 19 %
FOB 5.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
FOB 5.85 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.55 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Last Week | Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried Mango (chunks, 2–3 cm, 13–19% moisture) | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.62 | 5.62 | 0% | Stable |
| Dried Mango (slices/chunks, 2–9 cm) | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.85 | 5.85 | 0% | Stable |
| Dried Mango (normal sugar, 8–10 mm) | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.55 | 4.55 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Export Growth: Vietnam’s mango export market share has reached 9.23% globally, driven by a 10.5% YoY rise in export revenue in early 2025.
- Top Markets: China absorbs 97% of Vietnamese mango exports—much higher than imports from Peru, Australia, Cambodia, Philippines, and Thailand.
- Market Diversification: Besides China, exports reach the US, Japan, South Korea, Netherlands, and over 30 countries, enhancing market resilience.
- Pricing: Vietnam’s average mango export price (0.70 USD/kg) undercuts competitor countries, providing a key advantage.
- Certification: Nearly 2,000 ha in the Mekong Delta are VietGAP/GlobalGAP certified, enabling access to strict-import markets and higher premiums.
📊 Fundamentals
- Annual Output: ~1 million tons, expected to hit 1.5 million tons by 2030.
- Harvest Window: Vietnam supplies off-season mangoes (Sep–Mar), targeting China’s low domestic supply window for higher prices.
- Varietal Strengths: Specialty types like Hoa Loc and Cat Chu dominate premium demand, especially in China.
- Competitive Factors: High yield, flexible harvests, low logistics and labor cost.
- Supply & Price Pressure: Mango prices plunge in May when Chinese stocks hit the market, falling as low as 0.12–0.20 USD/kg locally.
⛈️ Weather Outlook
- Mekong Delta: Predominantly sunny, minimal rain forecast for the next week; conditions support ongoing harvest and drying.
- Short-Term Risk: No significant storms or extreme heat events anticipated, which should preserve fruit quality in the near term.
- Long-Term Climate: Extended dry season could stress some orchards, but irrigation projects are mitigating drought effects for certified growers.
🌎 Production & Stock Overview
| Country | Annual Mango Production (2024) | Certified Area | Export Price (USD/kg) | Main Export Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 1.0 million tons | ~2,000 ha (GAP-certified) | 0.70 | China (97%), US, Japan, SK, EU |
| Thailand | 3.7 million tons | Major | >1.00 | China, EU |
| Peru | 620,000 tons | Medium | >1.20 | EU, US, China |
| India | 25 million tons | High | >0.80 | Middle East, US, EU |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 Exporters: Optimize shipments through September–March when China’s local supply drops; focus on premium markets with certified fruit.
- 🟡 Growers: Lock in supply contracts for off-season premium sales; monitor weather for late-season yield risks.
- 🔵 Importers: Secure forward contracts for GAP-certified and specialty varieties heading into China’s off-season; review logistics efficiency for cost gains.
- 🟠 Traders: Prepare for potential price volatility around May with Chinese seasonal competition; fast liquidate stocks if pricing signals excess local inventory.
- 🔴 All market participants: Watch for fluctuation in global logistics and currency shifts as risks to profit margins.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Date | Location | Product | Forecast Price (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2025 | Hanoi (FOB) | Mango dried (chunks) | 5.62 | Stable |
| July 13, 2025 | Hanoi (FOB) | Mango dried (slices/chunks) | 5.85 | Stable |
| July 12–14, 2025 | Dordrecht, NL (FCA) | Mango dried (TH origin) | 4.55 | Stable |