Mustard Seeds Market: Momentum Paused, Bullish Potential Remains Intact

The Indian mustard seeds market is navigating a pivotal moment after many months of strong upward price momentum. In early July 2025, an abrupt government order mandating monthly stock, production, sales, and trade disclosures from edible oil companies sent immediate ripples through the sector, triggering a sharp price drop of around $0.06/kg overnight. Beyond policy, high prices had already started to temper buying interest from end-users—especially millers—prompting some to wait for further clarity. Yet, industry experts emphasize that this correction is likely temporary. Despite the dip, overall fundamentals still favor sustained price strength, underpinned by a notably tighter supply scenario, robust demand, and low stocks held by traders and millers.

Mustard production projections for 2025 show a shortfall against last year, with estimates suggesting 3.75 lakh tonnes less than previous figures, even though official government numbers are higher. Total market availability in March 2025 was put at 11.83 million tonnes, while private stocks have dwinded after persistent price hikes earlier in the season. Arrivals in early March surged but stabilized later, with Jaipur prices rebounding by about $0.14/kg from mid-March through July. The immediate future now looks uncertain as opposing market forces weigh in—government transparency on one hand, but looming festive season demand and reduced inventories on the other. With seven months yet to go before the next domestic harvest and current stocks just enough to cover expected consumption, any uptick in demand could renew upward price pressure. While the current lull has unsettled some, most analysts see this as a consolidation phase, with potential for Jaipur prices to eventually reach $0.90/kg. The immediate impact of the new regulations may introduce a cautious tone, but the underlying bullish theme remains entrenched. Traders and processors should remain alert to the evolving supply-demand balance as we enter the festive use period.

📈 Prices & Market Summary

Type	Origin	Purity	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Last Price	Change	Sentiment
Yellow, micro, sortex	IN	99.95%	New Delhi (FOB)	FOB	0.83	0.82	+0.01	Bullish
Yellow, bold, sortex	IN	99.95%	New Delhi (FOB)	FOB	0.98	0.97	+0.01	Bullish
Brown, micro, sortex	IN		New Delhi (FOB)	FOB	0.83	0.82	+0.01	Bullish
Brown, bold, sortex	IN	99.95%	New Delhi (FOB)	FOB	0.76	0.75	+0.01	Bullish
Sinapis Alba	KZ	99.5%	Kiełczygłow, PL (FCA)	FCA	0.74	0.79	-0.05	Mixed

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Government Policy: New reporting mandates for edible oil companies caused short-term sentiment swings, but likely introduce greater transparency for future trading.
• Arrivals: March arrivals peaked at 1.5 million sacks/day; now normalizing, prompting some buyers to remain on the sidelines.
• Private Inventory: Millers and traders have run down stocks earlier in the year—a crucial factor as stocks are now just adequate for upcoming consumption.
• Demand: Relatively unaffected by rises in prices of alternative edible oils; seasonal/festive consumption expected to pick up.
• Production: Trade estimates put 2025 output 375,000 tonnes lower than 2024; total March availability at 11.83 million tonnes.
• Exports/Imports: Not a major driver for mustard, as India is typically self-reliant; focus remains on domestic stocks.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventory Overview

• Stocks: Current national inventory ~7.2 million tonnes—just sufficient for expected consumption until next crop (Feb 2026).
• Production Trend: Official government figures somewhat higher than trade estimates; tightness remains visible at market level.
• Global Context: India remains the world’s largest producer and consumer; Kazakhstan’s Sinapis Alba posting slightly weaker export prices in Europe.

⛅ Weather Outlook for Growing Regions

• North India: Monsoon onset has been timely but somewhat erratic in certain belts of Rajasthan and Haryana, causing localized yield concerns—supportive for prices if crop stress persists.
• Weather Impact: Some producers are reporting yield losses due to variable rains; continued monitoring is essential for production outlook.
  Latest weather data suggests scattered heavy showers likely in Rajasthan and UP over the next week, improving soil moisture but posing short-term harvest delays.

🌎 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (mn tonnes)	2024/25 Stocks (mn tonnes)
India	~11.8	~7.2
Russia	~0.3	~0.1
Canada	~0.2	~0.04
Kazakhstan	~0.20	n/a
EU	~0.15	n/a

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Short-Term: Expect rangebound trading with possible slight downside as market absorbs recent regulatory news and subdued buying continues.
• Medium-Term: Market likely to regain bullish momentum as festive demand picks up and arrivals slow; potential for Jaipur spot prices to test $0.90/kg by year-end.
• For Buyers: Consider gradual replenishment during current calm—delays could mean paying higher as demand returns.
• For Sellers: Capitalize on any strength above recent peaks; maintain caution as price rallies may see profit-taking corrections.
• Risk Factors: Rapid changes in government stock data, weather disruptions, and sudden exports could shift market direction.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Date	Jaipur Spot Price ($/kg)	New Delhi Yellow, micro, FOB (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
2025-07-13	0.88	0.83	Stable
2025-07-14	0.89	0.84	Cautiously optimistic
2025-07-15	0.89	0.84	Firm