Global Soybean Market Update: Rising Production and Inventory Pressures Trigger Further Price Declines

The global soybean market is currently facing a complex landscape: record production forecasts, rising inventories, and demand uncertainties are exerting persistent downward pressure on prices. In July, the USDA raised estimates for both global beginning and ending stocks as well as total production for the 2025/26 marketing year. Key drivers include larger crops in Argentina and Ukraine and ongoing acreage expansion in Brazil, where output is projected to break new records. Conversely, SOS signals are coming from the demand side—China’s import forecast has been slashed and Brazil’s export outlook scaled back, while global export and import flows are subdued.

This oversupplied context has been swiftly transmitted to prices, with Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures extending losses since the last USDA report in June. Traders and producers face an unusual confluence of high inventories, robust South American supply, and fragile Chinese import activity, all set against a backdrop of shifting weather patterns with the potential to affect yields later in the north-hemisphere growing season. The current market environment requires vigilant risk management, agile trading strategies, and close attention to evolving weather and trade data.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Origin	Type	Location	Closing Price (EUR/ton)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
CBOT (July)	Futures	Chicago, US	368.90	-0.9%	Bearish
CBOT (Nov)	Futures	Chicago, US	370.00	-0.6%	Bearish
US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.0%	Stable
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	0.71	-2.7%	Bearish
Ukraine	–	Odesa	0.34	0.0%	Stable
China	Yellow, Organic 99.8%	Beijing	0.76	+1.3%	Firm/Stable
China	Yellow 99.5%	Beijing	0.68	+1.5%	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• USDA July raised global 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 422.9 Mt, +1.2 Mt vs June; mainly due to Argentina revised to 49.9 Mt (+0.9 Mt).
• Global ending stocks up 0.9 Mt, as strong output and weak exports widen surplus.
• China’s soybean imports cut by 1.5 Mt (slower pig sector demand, economic headwinds); Brazilian exports down 2.4 Mt as global buyers step back.
• Argentina’s exports revised up 1.9 Mt: strong shipments to China offset Brazil’s drop.
• Turkey’s imports raised 0.5 Mt: localized feed demand improvement.
• Brazil 2025/26 crop seen at 175-179.9 Mt (Safras & Mercado higher), record acreage 48.2 Mha (+576,000 ha year-on-year).
• Ukraine: 2025/26 record output forecast 7.6 Mt, reflecting expanded area and favorable spring weather.
• Global inventories projected to remain high through the upcoming marketing year, keeping export prices suppressed.

📊 Fundamentals

Country	2025/26 Output (Mt)	YoY Change (%)	Main Trend
Brazil	175.0-179.9	+2% to +4%	Record, Expansion
Argentina	49.9	+1.8%	Recovery
US	Expected steady	–	Normal
Ukraine	7.6	+8%	Record/Boosted
China (Import)	96.0 (import est.)	-1.5 Mt	Weak Demand

☀️ Weather Outlook

• US Midwest: 7-day forecasts indicate above-average temperatures and variable rainfall. Key regions (Illinois, Iowa) may see brief dryness in mid-July, but crucial rains likely ahead, limiting crop stress.
• Brazil: Southern regions mostly dry, but long-term outlook supports robust planting intentions for new season.
• Argentina: Soil moisture mostly adequate but cool spells slowing late development; no major damage reports.
• Ukraine: Continued mild, sunny weather supports record yields.

Weather impact: Risk is neutral-to-modestly negative in July, with little evidence so far for large-scale crop losses.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Output (Mt)	2025/26 Output (Mt)	Ending Stocks (Mt)
Brazil	153.0	175-179.9	18.9
Argentina	48.3	49.9	6.8
US	114.2	Steady est.	8.5
Ukraine	7.3	7.6	1.2
China (Import)	97.5	96.0	13.1

📆 Forecast & Trading Outlook

• Oversupply and soft global demand to keep prices choppy, with further downside likely unless new weather shocks hit US crops.
• South American farmers expected to expand acreage further if currency trends, input costs remain favorable.
• Speculators: Recent CFTC data indicate increased short positions; large funds betting on further price declines.
• For end-users: Consider forward purchases if prices move near support levels (e.g., CBOT €365/t), as downside risk may be limited by harvest-period weather volatility.
• For producers: Maintain hedge positions; oversupply conditions justify cautious optimism regarding brief rallies but overall price trend remains negative.
• Monitor: US weather reports, especially pollination conditions; China import demand signals; Currencies (USD, BRL).

🔎 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/ton)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (July)	368.90	366-369	Soft/Bearish
CBOT (Nov)	370.00	367-370	Soft/Bearish
India (FOB ND)	0.71	0.69-0.71	Weak/Bearish
Ukraine (FOB Odesa)	0.34	0.34-0.35	Flat
China (FOB Beijing)	0.76	0.75-0.77	Stable