Ajwain Market: Prices Settle After Surge, Firmness Expected Amid Tight Supply

The Ajwain (carom seed) market in Saurashtra-Gujarat has undergone a significant shift in the past week. After a sharp uptrend driven by robust demand and reduced arrivals, a stabilization phase has arrived with prices correcting slightly. This moderation came as demand eased marginally; nonetheless, the underlying fundamentals suggest the market will remain firm. The drop in average prices is seen as a natural correction—traders anticipate the firmness to persist due to lingering tightness in stocks and ongoing supply-side concerns. Unfavorable growing weather in producing zones compounds the uncertain new crop outlook, with arrivals already impacted. Meanwhile, out-of-state buyers and spice millers are continuing to support market activity, especially from key consumption states such as Delhi, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh, keeping volumes healthy. While this week’s softening offers brief respite, global and domestic demand trends combined with fragile supply chains suggest ajwain prices could rebound or stay elevated in the near term.

📈 Prices

Market / Grade	Current Price (USD/20kg)	Previous Price (USD/20kg)	Change	Sentiment
Good Quality (Saurashtra)	$37.13–$38.32	$39.52–$40.72	– $2.39–$2.40	Stable/Firm
Medium Quality (Saurashtra)	$35.93–$37.13	$37.13–$38.32	– $1.20–$1.80	Soft but steady
Average Price	$38.32	$39.52	– $1.20	Slightly lower
Powder, Grade B (FOB New Delhi, EUR/kg)	€3.92	€3.92	Unchanged	Stable
Seed, Grade A (FOB New Delhi, EUR/kg)	€3.55	€3.57	– €0.02	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Arrivals to key markets have declined due to poor weather and limited new crop.
• Demand from spice mills and national traders—especially in Delhi, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh—remains robust.
• Some recent demand cooling triggered short-term price corrections.
• Out-of-state and export orders showing healthy momentum, cushioning the market.
• Speculators see little downside as stocks remain thin and new crop arrivals are uncertain.

📊 Fundamentals

• Production: Ajwain output was moderately below average last season, worsened by erratic rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan, the two major producers.
• Stocks: Marketable stocks are tight by historical standards; some traders holding back inventory in anticipation of firmer prices.
• Spec Position: Long bias prevails, but sensitive to demand pulses and further supply shocks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

• Gujarat: Dry patches and spotty showers have impacted crop maturation and yields. Meteorological forecasts indicate continued patchy rain, potentially delaying new arrivals by 1–2 weeks and pressuring short-term supply.
• Rajasthan: Slightly better rainfall prospects, but late planting is likely to limit output. Persistent heat stress may cap yield potential.
• Overall Impact: Weather-linked delays and yield risks keep downside for prices limited.

🌐 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (Est.)	2024/25 Outlook	Key Observations
India (Gujarat/Rajasthan)	~75,000 MT	Lower-to-steady	Weather disruptions; stocks tight
Imports from other countries	Negligible	Negligible	India dominates global supply
Key Buyers	India, Middle East, UK	Steady	Continued strong demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Advice

• After the recent correction, prices are likely to stay steady-to-firm on tight stock position.
• Buyers with medium-term requirements should consider covering now, as further supply disruptions may push prices back up.
• Short-term traders should watch for next week’s market arrivals and updated weather data— any further delays could reignite upward momentum.
• Exporters may see improved margins if INR weakens or FOB prices firm up.
• Speculative long positions remain justified but active stop-loss management is recommended given short-term volatility risk.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (FOB Main Markets)

Exchange/Market	Seed, Grade A (EUR/kg)	Powder, Grade B (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
New Delhi FOB	3.54–3.56	3.91–3.93	Steady-to-firm
Saurashtra (USD/20kg)	37.10–38.50	–	Slightly firm