Wheat Market Analysis: India Eyes Export Policy Shift, Stable Stocks Support Price Outlook

After several turbulent seasons marked by policy shifts and regional production challenges, the global wheat market stands at a crucial juncture. Most notably, India—the world’s second-largest wheat producer—may be poised to ease long-standing export restrictions on wheat-based products. This anticipated policy move follows stable outcomes from the 2023–24 harvest and healthy levels of government wheat reserves. Analysts and traders worldwide are closely monitoring India’s decision, as any relaxation of export curbs would signal greater supply security for wheat-importing countries, while also reshaping global trade flows. Combined with relatively stable prices and persistent production risks stemming from weather volatility in major growing regions, the wheat market is entering the 2024–25 season with a blend of optimism and vigilance.

Market participants must weigh factors ranging from US and EU weather updates to evolving demand patterns in Asia and Africa, all while watching India’s next steps for a possible resurgence of Asian-origin wheat exports.

📈 Wheat Prices: Global Snapshot

Origin	City/Exchange	Specification	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine	Odesa (FCA)	min. 9.5% protein	FCA	0.23	0.00	Steady
Ukraine	Kyiv (FCA)	min. 9.5% protein	FCA	0.22	0.00	Steady
Ukraine	Odesa (FCA)	min. 11.5% protein	FCA	0.24	0.00	Steady
Ukraine	Kyiv (FCA)	min. 11.5% protein	FCA	0.23	0.00	Steady
Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	min. 11.0% protein	FOB	0.19	0.00	Stable
Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	min. 10.5% protein	FOB	0.19	-0.01	Slightly Soft
Ukraine	Odesa (FOB)	min. 12.5% protein	FOB	0.19	-0.01	Slightly Soft
US	CBOT (FOB)	min. 11.5% protein	FOB	0.21	0.00	Neutral
France	Paris (FOB)	min. 11.0% protein	FOB	0.27	0.00	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• India: Considering lifting export restrictions on wheat-based products. 2023–24 production estimated at 112.9 million tonnes (down marginally from 113.5 million t), with buffer stocks at 30 million tonnes and expected consumption of 108 million tonnes for 2024–25. This strong inventory position underpins domestic price stability.
• Ukraine: Stable export offers, reflecting a competitive edge in the Black Sea market despite ongoing geopolitical and infrastructure uncertainties.
• US: No major price change; market remains attentive to Midwest weather and USDA acreage estimates.
• EU (France): Paris prices are steady, reflecting decent harvest outlooks tempered by rainfall and disease issues in select areas.
• Global Inventories: The USDA’s latest Global Grains report shows world-ending stocks remain at multi-year lows, with incremental improvement expected if top exporters deliver average yields.

📊 Wheat Market Fundamentals

• Production Trends: The bulk of world output is concentrated in China, India, Russia, US, and France. Current year global production is forecast at 787 million tonnes (USDA, June 2025), up 1% year-over-year, largely driven by steady Indian and Black Sea output.
• Stocks: Global stocks-to-use ratio remains below 30%, providing limited cushion against weather shocks.
• Trade Flows: Export corridors through Ukraine have stabilized, supporting Black Sea supply chains.
• Speculative Positioning: Money managers are holding a moderate net long position in US wheat futures, suggesting neutral to mildly bullish sentiment.

🌦 Weather Outlook & Yield Implications

• Ukraine & Russia: Good soil moisture but persistent thunderstorms and isolated hail risk. Harvest progress is satisfactory, supporting the market’s stable tone.
• Midwest US: Forecasts indicate mostly warm, dry weather through the next week, ideal for harvest but increasing stress in some spring wheat areas.
• Western Europe: Intermittent showers in France and Germany; helpful in late-filling but increased risk of field diseases.
• India: Rabi wheat output already harvested; no significant short-term weather impact expected.

🌎 Global Wheat Production & Stock Comparison

Country	Production (Mt, 2023–24)	Ending Stocks (Mt, 2023–24)
China	138	134
India	112.9	30
Russia	91	14
US	49	16
France (EU-27)	35	12
Rest of World	361	68

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Indian export policy signals are a potential bullish wildcard if restrictions are eased—watch for confirmed notifications from the Ministry of Commerce.
• Wheat prices are mostly steady in Ukraine, France, and US, with slight softness in select FOB categories.
• Weather risk persists, especially in the US Midwest and parts of Western Europe—monitor short-term forecasts closely for fieldwork windows and potential disease pressure.
• Importers may consider securing fresh shipments ahead of any surge in demand if Indian export restrictions are officially lifted.
• Traders should maintain a balanced approach, as ample Indian and global stocks offset weather risk to some degree.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Region/Exchange	3-Day Price Outlook	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.21 EUR/kg	Stable
Euronext (Paris)	0.27 EUR/kg	Steady
Odesa (Ukraine FCA)	0.23 EUR/kg	Firm
Odesa (Ukraine FOB)	0.19 EUR/kg	Slight Downside

Note: No substantial price swings are expected in the next 3 days, barring surprise policy changes from India or unexpected weather disruptions.