Chickpeas Rally on Tight Supplies: Bullish Mood Persists Across Indian Mandis

Chickpeas are once again making headlines as prices surge across major Indian mandis—outpacing both wheat and flour over the last two months. Despite steady arrivals from producing states such as Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, prices show no sign of decline. Instead, persistent supply shortages and robust stockist activity have propelled chickpea prices beyond $76.23 per 100 kg, approaching new short-term highs.

Remarkably, the price gap between bulk and polished chickpeas has narrowed, reflecting increased demand across quality grades. Prices, having already breached key resistance levels in Jaipur, Kanpur, and Indore, underscore a market in which buyers outpace available supply. The international context—particularly Australia’s lower-than-usual shipment volumes and ongoing domestic demand—adds further fuel to this bullish trend.

📈 Prices: Major Market Benchmarks

Market/Type	Location	Specs	Latest Price	Prev. Price	Currency	Weekly Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Mandi (Polished)	Jaipur	100 kg	76.23–76.84	73.45	USD	+4%	Bullish
Mandi	Kanpur/Indore	100 kg	82.79–85.91	79.00	USD	+5%	Bullish
Mandi	Delhi	100 kg	74.42	72.98	USD	+2%	Bullish
FOB	Mexico City	Count 42-44, 12 mm	1.74	1.75	EUR/kg	-0.6%	Stable/Soft
FOB	New Delhi	Count 42-44, 12 mm	1.36	1.39	EUR/kg	-2.2%	Stable/Soft

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• 👩‍🌾 Firm Local Demand: Indian stockists are aggressively building inventories, anticipating further upside. Consistent mandi buying keeps prices elevated despite steady arrivals from major states.
• 🚚 Limited Domestic Arrivals: Increased flows from Rajasthan, Bihar, MP, UP, and Maharashtra remain insufficient to ease the supply squeeze. The seasonal bump hasn’t tempered bullish sentiment.
• 🌏 Global Context: Australia—India’s largest import source—reports lower chickpea shipments for the October–November window. High domestic prices in Australia reduce export incentives, with volumes meeting only ~10% of India’s import needs.
• 🏦 Stockist Behavior: Stockists withholding old stocks for higher expected prices further limit trade volumes and intensify the supply-side crunch.

📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stocks

• 🇮🇳 India: The world’s largest producer and importer, India’s stocks are tight, and arrivals haven’t caught up with demand as the Rabi season tapers off.
• 🇦🇺 Australia: Despite increasing area sown for chickpeas, prices remain high and output limited. Exportable surplus is notably down, constraining Indian buyers reliant on Australian imports.
• Global Comparison Table

Country	2023 Production (kt)	Est. Stocks (kt)	Exportable Volume (kt)
India	11,300	900	450
Australia	760	110	75
Canada	245	20	18
Turkey	630	70	45

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• 🛰️ India: Recent forecasts indicate normal to above-average monsoon rainfall in key chickpea states, but some regions (especially parts of MP and Maharashtra) have faced patchy early rains. Short-term weather is expected to be supportive, though sudden spells of excess or deficit rainfall could impact next sowing season area and emergence.
• 🌱 Australia: Cooler-than-average temps and dry spells have slowed chickpea crop development. Some regions remain at risk of below-normal precipitation over the next two weeks, which could limit further exportable yields.

📌 Market Drivers Summary

• ✍️ Consistently firm buying in Indian mandis despite arrivals.
• ✍️ Weak Australian export potential limits import supplies.
• ✍️ Stockists’ withholding and active inventory accumulation.
• ✍️ High demand for polished and processed chickpeas, narrowing price differentials.
• ✍️ No major government intervention or import policy easing noted to date.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast & Trading Outlook

• 🔮 Short-Term Outlook (3 Days): Prices in Indian mandis are set to remain firm, with polished and bulk grades likely to test and potentially breach the $78.65/100 kg mark if arrivals don’t pick up and imports stay limited.
• 📣 Recommendations:
  • Bullish traders should hold or add to positions, targeting $78.65 and above for 100 kg lots in the near term.
  • Stockists: Continue to accumulate but beware of sudden policy or import interventions that could curb upside.
  • Exporters (Australia/Mexico): Maintain offers at current elevated levels, but monitor demand from Indian buyers closely.
  • Importers: Secure supplies sooner, as market tightness appears set to persist into the next few weeks.
  • Spot buyers in India: Consider near-term purchases, particularly as weather and policy risks loom for the next sowing cycle.

Market	Product	Forecast Range (3 days)	Trend
Jaipur/Kanpur/Indore Mandis	Chickpeas (bulk & polished)	$76.50 – $79.00 / 100 kg	Upward/Bullish
Delhi Mandi	Chickpeas	$74.80 – $77.50 / 100 kg	Upward/Bullish
FOB India (export)	Chickpeas dried 42-44, 12 mm	€1.36 – €1.39 / kg	Stable to Slightly Firm
FOB Mexico	Chickpeas dried 42-44, 12 mm	€1.74 – €1.76 / kg	Stable/Soft