Soya Market Outlook: India’s Sowing Slowdown & Global Price Pressures Transform Supply Prospects

The soybean market is undergoing a transformative phase as persistently low prices reverberate through both domestic and international arenas. In India—widely recognized as both a major soybean producer and a bellwether for Asian oilseed trends—a pronounced decline in sowing acreage has triggered alarms among traders and analysts. The disincentive is palpable: as prices remain stuck well below farmers’ break-even expectations, cultivation is shrinking at an unprecedented pace. With approximately 2.05 million hectares fewer soybeans expected compared to last year, and leading states such as Madhya Pradesh alone accounting for a drop of 0.85 million hectares, the ramifications will be felt across supply chains.

Delayed monsoons and erratic rainfall patterns, coupled with weak market support, are further fueling uncertainty. Internationally, oversupply and muted demand continue to suppress Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Euronext prices. In key consumer regions, the market is now wrestling with a paradox: a near-term abundance, but the emerging risk of future supply shocks should sowing rates remain depressed. Soybean producers and buyers must now navigate volatile market sentiment, shifting weather prospects, and policy indecision as they chart the months ahead.

📈 Prices: Current Benchmark & Physical Market Overview

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Last Updated	Sentiment
China	Yellow, Organic	99.8%	Yes	Beijing	0.77	0.76	2025-07-17	⬆️ Slightly Rising
China	Yellow	99.5%	No	Beijing	0.68	0.68	2025-07-17	➡️ Stable
USA	No. 2	–	No	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.35	2025-07-09	➡️ Stable
India	Sortex Clean	–	No	New Delhi	0.71	0.73	2025-07-09	⬇️ Slight Drop
Ukraine	–	–	No	Odesa	0.34	0.34	2025-07-09	➡️ Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand: Key Drivers & Shifts

• India’s Sowing Crisis: Total soybean sowing down 2.05 million hectares year-on-year; Madhya Pradesh alone down 0.85 million hectares.
• Price-Driven Crop Switching: Farmers in Gujarat, Maharashtra opt for alternative crops as soybean profitability plunges.
• Global Production Overhang: US, Brazil, Argentina report large old-crop stocks, keeping international prices subdued.
• Weak Domestic Prices: Indian market prices ($57–$65/100kg ≈ €0.68–€0.77/kg) remain below grower expectations, reducing enthusiasm for upcoming sowings.
• Procurement Uncertainty: Lack of robust government support or procurement programs is magnifying risk aversion among growers.

📊 Fundamentals: Stocks, Acreage, and Comparative Data

Country	2024 Sowing/Growing Season (k ha)	2023 Sowing (k ha)	Stock Estimates (m t)	Export/Import Status
India	~9,100	~11,150	2.0	Net Importer
Brazil	~44,000	~43,000	28.0	Top Exporter
USA	~34,000	~35,000	7.0	Major Exporter
Argentina	~16,000	~17,000	3.5	Major Exporter

• Indian Sowing Falls Sharply: ~2 million ha below last season; stocks being depleted as processing and domestic demand continue.
• Ample Supplies Elsewhere: Brazil and the USA continue to report comfortable inventories.
• Potential for Later Tightness: If India’s trend persists, tighter Asian supply could emerge by Q3/Q4.

☁️ Weather Outlook for Key Regions

• India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat): Monsoon rainfall remains delayed and below-average, threatening further crop attrition, especially in rainfed districts.
• Brazil: Seasonally dry; Brazilian sowing will not begin in earnest until September, but current soil moisture is adequate.
• USA (Midwest): Warm, mostly dry weather forecast for next 10 days; mild stress possible if rain does not return by month-end.

Impact: India’s shortfall is being compounded by poor rainfall, while weather risk for North and South America is, for now, limited — but should be watched.

📢 Market Drivers & Sentiment

• Bearish: Large South American stocks, lackluster Chinese demand, soft energy markets weighing on soy oil values.
• Bullish (Potential): Indian acreage shortfall may eventually curb Asian supply, with price rally potential later in 2025 unless prices improve soon.
• Speculative Flows: Net short positions by funds on CBOT remain significant, underpinning weak futures sentiment but offering room for sudden reversals on weather or policy surprises.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 💡 Buyers: Take advantage of current lows in spot and forward markets. Consider extending coverage for at least 4–6 months while prices remain suppressed.
• 💡 Producers (India): Advocate for government intervention/support. Crop switching may be prudent if price environment does not improve.
• 💡 Processors: Secure supply from Brazil/USA. Monitor potential supply reduction from India; be prepared for volatility in late 2025.
• 💡 Traders: Watch for signals of bullish reversal in Asian markets; respond rapidly to any improvement in Indian monsoon or policy support.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CBOT, India, FOB)

Market	Current Price	3-Day Forecast	Trend
CBOT (US No. 2 Yellow, USD/bushel)	~12.25	12.10 – 12.30	➡️ Stable to Slightly Softer
India (Domestic, EUR/kg)	0.71	0.70 – 0.72	➡️ Steady to Slightly Lower
China (FOB, EUR/kg)	0.68 – 0.77	0.68 – 0.78	➡️ Stable