Corn Market Surge: India’s Imports Hit Record Amid Rising Domestic Prices & International Supply Shifts

The global corn market is navigating a dynamic period, with India emerging as a particularly influential player in 2024–25. Despite an uptick in domestic production—35.4 million tonnes in 2023–24 versus 34.6 million a year prior—India’s imports have soared to historic highs. In just June 2024, imports hit 142,400 tonnes, a dramatic surge compared to 8,400 tonnes in June 2023, fueled by robust domestic demand and substantially more attractive international prices.

While India’s storage bins may be full, it is pricing, not supply, that is reshaping flows: imported corn (landed at Nhava Sheva) is costing significantly less than local produce, with international origins like Brazil and Ukraine offering a vital edge. Regional price disparities are pronounced—southern India and Maharashtra see the strongest price momentum, driven by relentless demand from poultry and starch processors. As these market dynamics play out, watchers are taking cues from international supply trends, India’s evolving role as an importer, and global weather patterns—each with the potential to shift the market’s balance in the months ahead.

📈 Prices & Exchange Overview

Exchange/Origin	Product	Type/Grade	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	Corn	Yellow feed grade, 14.5% moisture, 98% purity	0.25	0.00	Stable/Neutral
France (Paris, FOB)	Corn	Yellow	0.25	-0.01	Softening
Argentina (Buenos Aires, FOB)	Popcorn	Expansion 40/42	0.81	-0.01	Softening
India (New Delhi, FOB)	Corn (Starch)	Organic	1.95	-0.02	Stable/Neutral
Brazil/Ukraine (India Landed)	Corn	Imported (avg. price, June 2024)	ca. 0.2277*	–	Favorable for imports
Bihar, India (Domestic)	Corn	Domestic (July 2024)	ca. 0.2530–0.2590*	–	Elevated, strong demand
Karnataka, India	Corn	Domestic	ca. 0.2710*	–	High, continued uptrend

*USD/100kg converted to EUR/kg (@1.09 EUR/USD)

🌍 Supply & Demand Trends

• India’s 2023–24 corn harvest reached 35.4 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous year.
• Despite this, imports surged 16-fold YoY in June 2024, driven by strong industrial and feed demand and more attractive international prices.
• Southern India and Maharashtra face the sharpest price pressure due to robust demand from poultry/starch sectors.
• International suppliers (Brazil, Ukraine) continue to provide competitive offers, supporting Indian buying interest.
• Domestic prices in some Indian regions now either at parity or even above import parity, keeping the import window open.

📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers

• USDA World Corn Supply & Demand: Global ending stocks for 2023/24 projected lower, with key inventory drawdowns in US and major exporters.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money funds have trimmed long positions on CBOT, reflecting grain market uncertainty.
• India Imports: Recent trade sources report 142,400 tonnes imported in June 2024 (vs 8,400 in June 2023). Imports continue to be supported until domestic prices retreat significantly.
• Key Trigger Level: Domestic corn prices above 0.2770 EUR/kg (USD 27.70/100 kg) could prompt further import surges, especially through southern ports.

🌦️ Weather Outlook for Major Producers

• India: Southwest monsoon activity has been variable, with above-average rainfall in eastern corn belt (Bihar), moderating near-term production risks. Southern belt faces sporadic dry spells, which could tighten local supplies if prolonged.
• Brazil: Safrinha corn harvest near completion with strong yield reports sustaining global export supplies. Weather conditions were overall favorable.
• US Corn Belt: Recent heatwaves have increased water stress in parts of Iowa and Illinois; short-term yield risks have risen marginally but are not yet critical. Scattered storms expected next week should provide partial relief.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Snapshot

Country	2023/24 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Projection (Mt)	Ending Stocks (2023/24, Mt)
United States	389	383*	51.3
Brazil	127	120*	12.9
Ukraine	28.2	27*	2.6
India	35.4	36*	NA
China	288.8	289*	217.7

*Preliminary projection, July 2024

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• For Importers: Monitor domestic price levels closely—every move above 0.2770 EUR/kg increases the rationale for additional imports.
• For Exporters (Ukraine, Brazil): Competitive edge remains strong; Indian demand should persist as long as pricing remains favorable versus domestic Indian rates.
• For Industry (India): Secure supplies early where possible, especially for poultry and starch, as further price increases may lead to a tighter local market in Q3 2024.
• Speculators: Short-term volatility expected, particularly with ongoing weather developments in the US corn belt and shifting Indian demand.

📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast
CBOT (Chicago)	0.16	Stable to Slightly Softer
Euronext (Paris)	0.25	Mild Downside Expected
Odesa (Ukraine)	0.25	Stable
Nhava Sheva (India, Landed)	0.23	Stable-to-Firm (if local demand persists)
Bihar/Karnataka (India, Domestic)	0.25–0.27	Firm, possible upside pressure in south