The global cashew market is entering a pivotal phase, marked by rising prices, shifting trade flows, and changing fundamentals. Vietnam—by far the world’s leading cashew exporter—has outlined ambitious targets for 2025: $4.5 billion in export earnings and expanded trade presence beyond its traditional partners. Despite a slight dip in export volumes during the first half of 2025, average export prices climbed sharply by nearly 24% year-on-year, more than offsetting volume declines and driving total export values 20.4% higher. Major destinations like China and the Netherlands saw robust growth, powered by strong demand and improved purchasing power. Meanwhile, a decline in raw cashew prices is supporting domestic processors’ profit margins, setting the stage for an active second half as importers prepare for key holiday seasons.
With a backdrop of tightening global supplies and optimism for continued growth (4.6% CAGR through 2027), the focus now shifts to market opportunities in emerging economies and the critical role of weather in West Africa and Southeast Asia for the upcoming harvests. Processors and traders face a dynamic environment: dealing with an uptick in farm-gate prices, evolving consumer trends, and tough competition for buyers across Europe, the US, and the Middle East. As Vietnam pushes to meet its ambitious 2025 export goals, participants across the supply chain must monitor price volatility, weather risks, and changing trade policies in real-time to maximize market opportunity.
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Cashew kernels
WW320
FOB 6.70 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.60 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.60 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices & Market Summary
| Origin | Type | Price (€/kg, FOB/FCA) | Prev. Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VN (Hanoi) | WW320 | 6.75 | 6.70 | +0.05 | Firm/Bullish |
| VN (Hanoi) | WW240 | 7.65 | 7.60 | +0.05 | Firm |
| VN (Hanoi) | WS | 5.65 | 5.60 | +0.05 | Stable |
| IN (Delhi) | WW320 | 6.99 | 6.94 | +0.05 | Firm |
| IN (Delhi) | W240 | 7.55 | 7.50 | +0.05 | Firm |
| NL (Dordrecht) | WW320 | 5.20 | 5.20 | 0.00 | Neutral |
- Vietnam export price (WW320): $6,805/tonne (23.8% YoY increase; ~€6.75/kg FOB equivalent)
- Raw cashew nut prices: $1,350/tonne (down from $1,450/tonne recently)
- Market sentiment: Bullish in VN/IN, steady-to-firm in EU trade hubs
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Vietnam Exports: 346,800 tonnes (Jan-Jun 2025), value up 20.4% YoY
- Export targets: $4.5bn for 2025 (VN), $2.2bn needed in H2
- Major buyers: China (22%, +41.2% YoY), US (21.6%, +0.1%), Netherlands (8.4%, +22.4%)
- Growth in emerging Middle East markets; EU demand steady
- Domestic processors benefiting from lower raw nut prices
📊 Market Fundamentals & Comparison
- Annual global market growth: 4.6% CAGR (2022–2027, Vinacas)
- Inventory: Ending stocks in VN manageable; lower raw material costs boosting competitiveness
- 2024 price surge contrasts with previous year’s largely rangebound trade
- Global consumption driven by snacking trends and food ingredient demand
⛈️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Vietnam: Seasonally stable weather supports H2 shipments; minor rains in central regions, but no major disruptions
- West Africa: Ivory Coast, Nigeria see slightly below-average rainfall—may impact late 2025 output
- India: Monsoon progressing near-normal; crop outlook positive for next harvest
- Weather risks: Persistent drought or storms could affect African harvests, influencing global raw nut prices and supply tightness in 2026
🌎 Global Production & Trade Flows
| Country | 2025 Export Share | Volume (est., kt) | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | ~65% | 660 | +2.7% target |
| India | ~10% | ~100 | Stable |
| Ivory Coast | ~8% | ~80 | Stable/Moderate |
| Other West Africa | ~8% | ~80 | Stable/Moderate |
| Others (SE Asia, Brazil) | ~9% | ~90 | Mixed |
- Vietnam remains dominant in both processing and exports
- India, Ivory Coast, Nigeria critical for raw nut supply
- China and EU key demand growth engines for 2025
📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy
- Buyers: Consider forward cover as prices remain firm, especially for premium grades (WW240, WW320, organic)
- Sellers/Processors: Strong profit environment—evaluate strategic sales into China and EU where demand is robust
- Monitor weather in West Africa for supply disruptions later in 2025
- Track regulatory and tariff changes in emerging Middle East and EU markets
- Speculators: Volatility expected leading into holiday demand; short-term opportunities on spot price dips
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Type | Origin | Exchange/City | Current Price (€/kg) | Forecast (Next 3 Days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | 6.75 | Firm to slightly higher (6.75–6.85) |
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | 7.65 | Stable to firm (7.65–7.75) |
| WW320 | India | New Delhi | 6.99 | Stable (6.95–7.05) |
| WW320 | NL | Dordrecht | 5.20 | Neutral/slightly firm (5.20–5.25) |
- Short-term: Prices supported by strong demand and lower raw nut costs
- Monitor for potential volatility as processors build inventory for holiday sales