The global coffee market is undergoing an extraordinary period of volatility and transformation as 2025 unfolds. World coffee prices — both for Robusta and Arabica — have surged to all-time highs, driven by tightening supplies, relentless international demand, and ongoing weather uncertainties in major growing regions. Vietnam, the world’s top Robusta exporter, is at the center of this shift: while the country’s raw coffee exports are declining due to tight supply, processed coffee volumes and values are skyrocketing. In the 2023–2024 crop year, Vietnam’s processed coffee exports soared 42% year-on-year to 127,543 tons, with average export prices leaping to USD 7,616 per ton — and a November record of USD 10,025 per ton. This shift underlines Vietnam’s rapidly growing competitive edge in value-added coffee, even as raw material prices remain elevated and unprocessed exports fall.
Globally, constrained output in Brazil and Vietnam — caused by drought, strategic stockholding, and delayed harvests — is pushing inventories to multi-year lows. Speculative funds have ramped up net long positions, reflecting strong bullish market sentiment and keeping futures contracts for both Robusta (ICE Europe) and Arabica (ICE NY) near historic peaks. Meanwhile, weather patterns continue to shape the outlook: Brazil is facing localized dryness in some late harvest regions; Vietnam’s Central Highlands remain at risk of drought, raising concerns for the next crop’s flowering and yields. For coffee industry stakeholders, quick adaptation is paramount — whether capitalizing on high prices, hedging, or locking in supply.
📈 Prices: Latest Exchange Data
| Exchange | Contract/Product | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE NY (Arabica) | July 2025 | USD 2.24/lb | +3.2% | Bullish |
| ICE Europe (Robusta) | July 2025 | USD 4,370/ton | +5.6% | Strongly Bullish |
| Hanoi (Physical, Robusta) | Spot | USD 5,650/ton | +4.8% | Bullish |
| London ICE | Robusta (July 2025) | USD 5,291/ton | +3.2% | Bullish |
| Vietnam (Central Highlands) | Robusta (Spot) | 130,000 VND/kg (~USD 5,100/ton) | +4.1% | Very Bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam: 665,800 tons exported Jan–Apr 2025 (-9.45% YoY), but export value surged +51.8% to USD 3.8 billion as prices soared. Processed coffee now accounts for 18% of export value on only ~9% of volume, driven by value-added strategies and record-high processed prices.
- Brazil: Green coffee exports for April 2025 down 31.9% YoY. Drought and delayed harvests continue to tighten global supply.
- Key Markets: Germany (+17% volume YoY), Spain, Italy, USA, and Mexico (up nearly 3,000% YoY in Vietnam imports) have grown sharply in their imports of Vietnamese coffee.
- Global Inventories: Certified robusta and arabica stocks at multi-year lows as producers and farmers hold back stocks, awaiting even higher prices.
- Speculative Positioning: Funds are net long on both Arabica and Robusta contracts, reflecting overtly bullish sentiment.
📊 Fundamentals: Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Output (000 tons) | 2024/25 Exports (000 tons) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (000 tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3,780 | 2,950 | 1,050 |
| Vietnam | 1,650 | 1,350 | 200 |
| Colombia | 820 | 700 | 90 |
| Indonesia | 670 | 450 | 60 |
🌦️ Weather Outlook – Key Regions
- Vietnam (Central Highlands): Persistent dryness and above-average temperatures; drought risk remains elevated for the 2025/26 crop, raising concerns about flowering and bean development. Monitor for short-term rainfall as a bullish or bearish catalyst.
- Brazil (Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo): Generally favorable harvest weather, but localized dryness could affect late-maturing cherries. Any shift to drier conditions may curtail yields and support prices further.
- Indonesia: Wet season ending; risk of robusta yield losses in Sumatra if dry spell intensifies.
- Colombia: Normal rainfall, but El Niño could bring drier outlook for late 2025.
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Global supply tightness, especially in Robusta, as Vietnamese and Brazilian farmers hold stocks or delay sales expecting higher prices.
- Speculative long positions in ICE NY and London ICE pushing futures to record highs.
- Weather: Drought and above-normal temperatures in Vietnam, patchy rainfall and localized dryness in Brazil.
- Tariffs: New 10% U.S. import tax on Vietnamese robusta may slow growth in U.S.-bound shipments but has not dented total export value thanks to price gains.
- Regulation: EU deforestation rules and other sustainability measures continue to influence sourcing and trade flows.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. 000 tons) | 2024/25 Exports (est. 000 tons) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (000 tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 3,780 | 2,950 | 1,050 |
| Vietnam | 1,650 | 1,350 | 200 |
| Colombia | 820 | 700 | 90 |
| Indonesia | 670 | 450 | 60 |
📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Consider forward selling 2025/26 crop at current historic prices, but hold some inventory for potential further rallies.
- Importers: Lock in Q3/Q4 2025 contracts early as tight supply and weather risks keep upside risk pronounced.
- Traders: Momentum is bullish; monitor speculative positioning and weather updates for tactical adjustments. Fast price reversals possible if major rains arrive in Vietnam or Brazil.
- Roasters: Consider adjusting blends as robusta prices remain at record highs relative to arabica. Monitor robusta/arabiaca spreads.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange | Current Price | Forecast (Day 1) | Forecast (Day 2) | Forecast (Day 3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ICE NY (Arabica) | USD 2.24/lb | USD 2.26–2.30/lb | USD 2.27–2.32/lb | USD 2.28–2.34/lb |
| ICE Europe (Robusta) | USD 4,370/ton | USD 4,390–4,450/ton | USD 4,400–4,480/ton | USD 4,420–4,500/ton |
| Vietnam (Physical, Robusta) | USD 5,650/ton | USD 5,670–5,750/ton | USD 5,700–5,800/ton | USD 5,730–5,850/ton |
Sources: VICOFA, ICE, USDA, Market Reports Jan–May 2025, Vietnam MARD, Trade Data【6:1†full-posts-2025.json】【6:6†full-posts-2025.json】【6:17†full-posts-2025.json】【6:18†full-posts-2025.json】【6:19†full-posts-2025.json】
