Rice Market Digest: Sliding Basmati Prices Amid Slow Demand and Stable FOB Offers

Rice markets are currently navigating a period of softness, with Basmati varieties exhibiting notable price declines as subdued consumer demand weighs on sentiment. In India, Basmati rice prices have slipped by $1.20 to $3.01 per quintal. The sought-after Pusa 1,121 now trades at $90.36–$91.57, while Traditional Basmati sits slightly higher at $134.94–$136.14. The Sugandha Steam variety and others such as 1509 Basmati Steam and its raw counterpart have also seen price adjustments down to $75.90–$80.72, signaling a broad-based easing across premium segments.

On the international export front, Vietnamese and Indian FOB prices have remained stable since last update, reflecting some resilience in global trading channels. The backdrop includes continued harvest progress in Southeast Asia and India, with weather generally favorable—but eyes are on the monsoon’s second phase and Southeast Asia’s dry-season rains, both of which could sway output prospects and market behavior. For market participants, the interplay of weather, demand revival, and government procurement trends will dictate short-term price action in the weeks to come.

📈 Prices: Key FOB and Domestic Benchmarks

Variety/Type	Origin	Location	FOB Price (€/kg)	Prev. Price (€/kg)	Change	Update Date	Sentiment
Basmati White (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	1.92	1.91	+0.01	2025-07-19	Stable
Basmati White Sella, 1121 Creamy	IN	New Delhi	0.90	0.88	+0.02	2025-07-19	Slightly Bullish
PR11 All Steam	IN	New Delhi	0.57	0.56	+0.01	2025-07-19	Stable
1509 Basmati Steam	IN	New Delhi	0.92	0.91	+0.01	2025-07-19	Soft
Long White 5%	VN	Hanoi	0.60	0.60	0.00	2025-07-19	Stable
Jasmine	VN	Hanoi	0.62	0.62	0.00	2025-07-19	Stable
Paper Dried	VN	Hanoi	1.95	1.95	0.00	2025-07-19	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

• India: Basmati segment under pressure due to slow domestic demand and ample arrival of new-crop rice; government stockpiles remain comfortable but procurement pace is slow.
• Southeast Asia: Vietnam and Thailand shipments continue apace, with no fresh supply disruptions; domestic prices are steady.
• Export Demand: African and Middle Eastern buyers have paused large purchases, contributing to weak spot pricing, but overall yearly export volumes remain on track.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Latest USDA global rice outlook indicates stable production in 2024/25, with continued strong output in India and Southeast Asia.
• India’s summer rice sowing pace slightly lags last year, but late monsoon advances could aid acreage recovery.
• Speculative interest: Managed money positions in rice remain flat, reflecting uncertainty and absence of bullish triggers.
• Policy watch: Any tweaks to Indian export regulations could swiftly alter trade flows, but none are anticipated in the near term.

☀️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• India: Monsoon showers have normalized in north and west India, boosting crop prospects. Localized flooding risk remains in east India and Bangladesh, which could impact premium rice supplies.
• Vietnam & Thailand: Dry conditions along the Mekong Delta are improving, with rain forecast for the next week. Crop progress is rated good to excellent.
• Short-term effects: Weather overall supportive; yield improvements expected unless late-season adverse events occur.

🌐 Production & Stocks: Major Players

Country	2023/24 Prod. (MMT)	2024/25E Prod. (MMT)	2024/25E Ending Stocks (MMT)
India	135.5	137.2	34.0
Vietnam	43.8	44.1	4.2
Thailand	31.6	32.3	7.1
China	148.7	149.2	100.0
Pakistan	9.8	10.3	0.9
Global	519.0	524.5	173.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Physical traders: Monitor demand signals from Middle East/North Africa for signs of buying renaissance as Ramadan approaches.
• Producers: Consider hedging future production; FOB prices are flat now but could rise on potential policy interventions or adverse late-monsoon events.
• Importers: Good window to secure forward contracts with price stability seen in SE Asia and India; risk of price upside if procurement quickens in India or Thai/Viet harvests falter.
• Speculators: Sideways market likely; wait for breakout confirmation before committing.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Outlook

Market	Price (€/kg)	Direction
Hanoi (Long White 5%)	0.60	Steady
New Delhi (Basmati White Sella, 1121 Creamy)	0.90	Steady
New Delhi (1509 Basmati Steam)	0.92	Slight Downside

Data Source: FOB market offers, USDA, local trade reports, Weather network analysis.