Beans Market Analysis July 2025: Tight Supply, Weather Risks, and Price Tensions

The global beans market is navigating a period of pronounced tightness and growing uncertainty. In China, domestic stocks of key varieties like small white kidney beans have reached critical lows, with market participants awaiting the arrival of new crop supplies. Export quotations at Tianjin Port for large white kidney beans are holding firm in the USD 1,310–1,340/tonne FOB range as supplies dwindle. Recent increases in rainfall have raised concerns about crop development in primary growing regions, boosting market anxiety regarding potential yield impacts. On the domestic front, a handful of traders holding small bean stocks are commanding high prices, but sales remain sluggish as buyers resist premium levels.

Both domestic traders and exporters are pinning their hopes on lower new-crop prices to reignite export momentum, but for now, minimal volumes are supporting inland market pricing. Globally, spot prices for beans remain elevated across key origination points, underpinned by robust demand from importing countries and constrained inventories at origin. Speculators are closely eyeing weather trends and acreage reports, looking for cues that could shift the precarious balance between bullish short-term fundamentals and the first signs of harvest-season relief.

📈 Latest Beans Prices at Key Origins

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price (EUR/t)	Change	Sentiment
Kidney beans, dark red	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.44	1.42	+0.02	Bullish
Kidney beans, brown eye	BR	Brasília	FOB	1.38	1.36	+0.02	Bullish
Kidney beans, white 99%	GB	London	FOB	1.37	1.35	+0.02	Steady
German beans, split	GB	London	FOB	0.97	0.95	+0.02	Steady
Fava beans, small	GB	London	FOB	1.18	1.16	+0.02	Steady
Kidney beans, large white	CN	Beijing	FOB	3.19	3.22	-0.03	Tight
Mung beans, 3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	FOB	1.43	1.40	+0.03	Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• China’s inventories of white kidney beans at near exhaustion, with a new crop awaited and export offers are strong.
• Export quotations FOB Tianjin: USD 1,310–1,340/t, no sign of downward pressure due to low stocks.
• Brazil and the UK report stable to slightly firmer FOB prices, reflecting strong global demand and reduced surpluses from prior harvests.
• Trade resistance to high-priced small bean parcels in China, though, minimal spot stocks sustain domestic values.
• Speculation that new crop pricing in China could enable more aggressive export marketing later in Q3.
• Import demand from Europe and the Middle East remains robust, further tightening available exportable supplies.

📊 Fundamental Data & Market Drivers

• USDA & Acreage Reports: US dry bean planted area reported lower year-on-year, underpinning a bullish bias globally.
• Speculators: Positioning in bean-linked futures remains net long, responding to weather and inventory data.
• Inventories: Ending stocks in major exporting countries (notably China and Brazil) are quoted as tight. Minimal supply cushion for supply shocks.
• Export Flows: Chinese and Brazilian exports slowed in Q2 amid FOB price rises and sluggish new crop offers.

🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Growing Regions

• China: Increased rainfall over the main North and Northeast bean belts may support vegetative growth but brings elevated risk of waterlogging and disease in the lowest-lying fields — close monitoring needed for potential damage.
• Brazil: Seasonally dry period post-harvest, no immediate weather threats, but continued high internal demand uptick due to strong domestic consumption.
• UK/EU: Mixed conditions with intermittent rain in July. No significant adverse weather, but moist conditions could favour late-cycle mildew risks.

🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (est, 000 t)	Stocks (est, 000 t)	Comment
China	1,400	Low	Stocks near exhaustion, waiting new crop
Brazil	3,200	Moderate	Strong internal use, steady stocks
UK/EU	370	Moderate	Slightly firmer due to imports, stable
India	Major importer	Low	Large, stable import demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Merchants and exporters should consider selling available stocks ahead of new crop arrivals, given persistent supply tightness.
• Importers may wish to secure forward cover for Q3–Q4 to hedge against continued high prices if weather impacts Chinese yields.
• Monitor weather forecasts for China and shifting crop conditions for signs of early harvest or weather-related supply shocks.
• Domestic Chinese traders holding small bean stocks face slow sales at high price levels; consider gradual sales as the new crop approaches.
• Watch the international spread between Chinese large white varieties and Brazil/UK lot beans for trading and arbitrage opportunities.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product	Forecast Price (EUR/t)	Direction
Beijing (FOB)	Kidney beans, large white	3.15–3.19	Steady/Soft
Brasília (FOB)	Kidney beans, dark red	1.43–1.47	Firmer
London (FOB)	Kidney beans, white 99%	1.36–1.38	Steady