The global lentils market stands at a pivotal point as the 2025/26 harvest approaches. With China’s new season lentil crop expected to begin harvesting in mid-August, all eyes are on weather developments and market behaviour among regional traders. There is mounting concern that China’s limited domestic output, combined with potential stockpiling and “hoarding” by traders during the harvest period, could result in substantial price increases should supply tightness intensify. Furthermore, ongoing price changes in major exporting countries like Canada and Turkey are influencing sentiment and trade flows.
Organic lentils currently command offshore prices of USD 1,450–1,480/t, while conventional products range between USD 1,400–1,430/t. After a period of relative steadiness, lentil prices display early signs of strengthening in the face of this seasonal transition and tightening stocks in key regions. With global food inflation pressures lingering, these factors position the lentils market for heightened volatility over the coming months, particularly as weather risks and international logistics remain in flux. The coming weeks will prove critical for buyers and sellers seeking to navigate price risk and secure reliable supply.
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Lentils dried
Red football
FOB 2.47 €/kg
(from CA)
Lentils dried
Laird, Green
FOB 1.65 €/kg
(from CA)
Lentils dried
Eston Green
FOB 1.52 €/kg
(from CA)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Organic | FOB Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Last Update | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red football | CA | Ottawa | No | 2.47 | 2.50 | 2025-07-19 | Softening, but stable |
| Laird, Green | CA | Ottawa | No | 1.65 | 1.68 | 2025-07-19 | Slightly lower, stable |
| Eston Green | CA | Ottawa | No | 1.52 | 1.55 | 2025-07-19 | Softening |
| Small, Green | CN | Beijing | Yes | 1.32 | 1.35 | 2025-07-17 | Steady, slight drop |
| Small, Green | CN | Beijing | No | 1.24 | 1.26 | 2025-07-17 | Weakening |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- China: Domestic production remains low, accentuating supply risk during the harvest window. Trader stockpiling could exacerbate shortages—and price surges—in late Q3.
- Canada: Offers remain benchmark for global prices, but weather risks could impact yields as the crop matures.
- Turkey: Competes with Canada on global tenders; currency pressures and weather variability affect supply stability.
- India, EU: Core importing regions maintaining high procurement, but cautious amid volatile shipping markets.
📊 Fundamentals
- Low Chinese stocks and concentrated import channels limit market flexibility.
- Global inventories tracked by recent trade suggest tightening, particularly for premium/organic.
- Speculative interest is moderate, but likely to rise pre-harvest if weather fears escalate.
🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook
- China: Central/northwestern production belts face increased rainfall and fluctuating temperatures through late July. Forecast models indicate the risk of localised flooding and humidity-induced disease pressure impacting crop quality.
- Canada: Prairie provinces have experienced periodic dryness but are forecasted to receive modest precipitation in the week ahead, supporting pod fill. However, extended dryness in key lentil zones could limit final yields.
- Turkey: Hot, dry conditions continue in Anatolia, straining rainfed lentil development as harvest wraps up.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. kt) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (kt) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 2,440 | 480 | -4% |
| Turkey | 400 | 100 | flat |
| China | 90 | Low | -10% |
| India | 1,240 | 200 | +3% |
| EU | 90 | Moderate | flat |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Chinese harvest volumes; stockpiling by local traders may drive an early-season rally.
- Watch Canada and Turkey for weather-induced supply swings in the next 3 weeks.
- Consider pre-harvest buying for deferred cover if exposed to Chinese supply risk.
- Organic premiums remain firm; export offers from Canada above USD 1,450/t suggest tightening supply.
- Short-term: Expect a steady-to-firm undertone as harvest risk and weather volatility dominate sentiment.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Type | 2025-07-20 | 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa (CA) | Red football | 2.46 €/kg | 2.45 €/kg | 2.47 €/kg |
| Ottawa (CA) | Laird, Green | 1.66 €/kg | 1.67 €/kg | 1.67 €/kg |
| Ottawa (CA) | Eston Green | 1.53 €/kg | 1.53 €/kg | 1.54 €/kg |
| Beijing (CN) | Small, Green (Organic) | 1.33 €/kg | 1.33 €/kg | 1.34 €/kg |
| Beijing (CN) | Small, Green | 1.24 €/kg | 1.25 €/kg | 1.26 €/kg |
