The Chinese pumpkin seed market stands at a critical juncture as both supply- and demand-side forces gather momentum. With planting areas reduced and inventories at multi-year lows, market participants are bracing for dramatic changes as new crop arrivals draw closer. Growers and traders have reported healthy crop development so far, with harvests anticipated to begin by the end of August. However, forecasts signal a marked drop in total output, amplifying concerns around supply availability.
This perception is heightened by traders’ depleted stocks and a surge in inquiries from overseas buyers attuned to China’s central market position. Prices this week have displayed marked polarisation: top-quality products are earning notable premiums while actual transaction values closely track grade. As the sunflower seed harvest approaches, traders anticipate further short-term price volatility amid a persistent tug-of-war between market bulls and bears. With both domestic and international interest simmering, participants will need to closely monitor how swiftly new supplies come online and whether lower yields will trigger a lasting price rally.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Pumpkin seeds kernels
gws, grade aa
99,95%
FOB 3.32 €/kg
(from CN)
Pumpkin seeds kernels
gws, grade a
99,95%
FOB 3.13 €/kg
(from CN)
Pumpkin seeds kernels
shine skin, grade aa
99,95%
FOB 3.44 €/kg
(from CN)
📈 Prices: Latest Market Levels
| Type | Grade | Purity | Origin | Location | Organic | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | gws, grade aa | 99.95% | CN | Dalian | No | 3.32 | -0.02 | 2025-07-19 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | gws, grade a | 99.95% | CN | Dalian | No | 3.13 | -0.02 | 2025-07-19 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | shine skin, grade aa | 99.95% | CN | Dalian | No | 3.44 | -0.02 | 2025-07-19 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | shine skin, grade a | 99.95% | CN | Dalian | No | 2.75 | -0.02 | 2025-07-19 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | shine skin, grade aa | 99.95% (Organic) | CN | Beijing | Yes | 3.01 | +0.07 | 2025-07-17 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | shine skin, grade a+ | 99.95% | CN | Beijing | No | 1.79 | +0.01 | 2025-07-17 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | shine skin, grade aa | 99.95% | CN | Beijing | No | 2.83 | +0.04 | 2025-07-17 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | gws, grade aa | 99.95% | CN | Beijing | No | 2.65 | +0.05 | 2025-07-17 |
| Pumpkin Seed Kernels | gws, grade a | 99.95% | CN | Beijing | No | 2.34 | +0.02 | 2025-07-17 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Outlook
- Output concerns: Acreage reductions mean total output is forecast to drop sharply in 2025. Participants should monitor real-time yield developments through August.
- Inventory drawdown: Domestic traders report depleted stocks, which tightens spot availability and increases price sensitivity to fresh supply news.
- International demand: Buying interest from overseas—especially from Europe—remains strong. The thin inventory situation could force importers to act early to secure new-crop products.
- Two-tier price structure: High-quality seeds are commanding significant premiums, while lower grades trade with steep discounts. This divergence may widen if production falls below expectations.
📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences
- Acreage and yields: Current crop development is robust, but total sown area has contracted. Weather from late July into August will be critical.
- Speculation and positioning: With inventories low and news of a smaller crop, speculative interest is likely to increase in the coming weeks, potentially driving price volatility.
- Sunflower harvest overlap: Overlapping timing with sunflower seed harvest may influence short-term supply/demand dynamics for pumpkin and other edible seeds.
🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook
- Key regions: Major growing areas in northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia) are entering their final maturation phase.
- Recent weather (mid-July): Meteorological data shows above-average temperatures and near-normal rainfall, supporting good kernel filling but leaving susceptibility if late drought hits.
- Short-term forecast: Next 3-5 days bring continued warm, sunny weather – positive for maturing seeds, but rapidly declining soil moisture could stress plants if extended.
- Yield risk: Watch for any regional storms or untimely rainfall in late July that could disrupt harvest logistics or quality.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Overview
| Country | 2024-25 Prod. Estimate (kt) | Stocks Trend | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 185 | Declining | Main exporter; expected lower production |
| Ukraine | 32 | Stable | Smaller harvest, stable stocks |
| Austria | 12 | Stable | Niche varieties, no major change |
| EU-27 | 14 | Stable | Modest local crop, relies on China |
| Turkey | 22 | Stable | Gradual export growth |
| USA | 19 | Low | Mainly speciality consumption |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor the late July and early August weather in Northeast China for yield risks.
- Secure supply early: Low inventories and reduced acreage point to a potential supply squeeze post-August.
- Price polarisation to persist: Premium for high-grade, discounts for lower quality will likely deepen.
- Expect price volatility as new crop arrivals may be delayed or smaller than expected—consider phased buying.
- International buyers: Prepare tenders and negotiations early; don’t rely on spot market availability in Q3-Q4.
- Review trade flow impacts from overlapping sunflower seed harvest, which could shift near-term seed demand.
📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Selected CN Exchanges)
| Type | Location | FOB Price Forecast (EUR/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| gws, grade aa | Dalian | 3.29 – 3.35 | Bullish, tight supply |
| gws, grade a | Dalian | 3.12 – 3.16 | Bullish-neutral |
| shine skin, grade aa | Dalian | 3.41 – 3.47 | Bullish (premium for quality) |
| shine skin, grade a | Dalian | 2.73 – 2.78 | Steady with upside |
