The mustard oil market continues to navigate a stable but slightly cautious climate. This equilibrium is shaped by higher arrivals in local mandis and restrained purchasing activity from oil mills. Despite daily arrivals in Jaipur swelling to 120,000 bags from 115,000 previously, prices remain steady—with mustard seeds in Jaipur quoted at $91.38/quintal. On the processed side, mustard oil markets in Delhi and other major consumption centers have also held flat, mirroring steady international edible oil prices for the week. According to leading traders and market analysts, the Indian mustard seeds market is underpinned by consistent—albeit subdued—demand from crushers, while the lack of upward triggers in global edible oil complex is dampening any bullish sentiment.
Production trends, however, introduce a cautionary note: official projections peg India’s 2023–24 mustard seed output at 11.15 million tonnes, representing a notable decline from 12.09 million tonnes in the prior season. As Rajasthan remains the largest supplier, followed by Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana, the scale-back in production may introduce a mildly supportive undertone, especially if arrival volumes eventually taper off. Despite the soft undertone, most industry voices expect no sharp moves upward, given subdued oil mill buying and range-bound international cues. Short-term, consistent purchasing by seed crushers and seasonal buying may provide a floor, preventing a significant price decline.
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📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Purity | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Updated | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | 99.95% | 0.83 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Yellow, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | 99.95% | 0.99 | +0.01 | 2025-07-19 | Stable/Firm |
| Brown, micro, sortex | IN | New Delhi | – | 0.83 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Brown, bold, sortex | IN | New Delhi | 99.95% | 0.76 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Sinapis alba | KZ | Kiełczygłow, PL | 99.5% | 0.75 | +0.01 | 2025-07-18 | Stable/Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Arrival Volumes: Increased to 120,000 bags/day (up from 115,000) in Indian mandis, especially in Rajasthan.
- Oil Mill Demand: Limited domestic oil mill buying kept prices steady despite higher arrivals.
- Edible Oil Markets: International edible oil prices remain flat, translating to muted sentiment for mustard seeds.
- Output Estimates: India’s 2023–24 mustard seed output seen at 11.15M tonnes, down from 12.09M tonnes last season.
- Main Producers: Rajasthan leads, followed by MP, UP, and Haryana.
📊 Fundamentals
- Market Tone: Firm undertone but restrained by global price cues and off-take pace.
- Export Activity: Steady offers from India and Kazakhstan, pricing in the EUR 0.75–0.99/kg range FOB/FCA.
- Inventories: No signs yet of aggressive stock build-up, but watchful eyes on arrival tapering and potential festive/seasonal demand uptick.
- Comparison with Previous Report: Market remains range-bound with little change in pricing, although the output revision downward has added a mildly supportive tone since the last review.
🌦️ Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)
- Rajasthan: Recent monsoon rainfall has been near average, but localized dry patches could limit final yields in western districts.
- Madhya Pradesh: Consistent rain; crop health remains good with expectations of normal output.
- Uttar Pradesh & Haryana: Sporadic rainfall events may introduce some pockets of stress, but no severe crop damage currently reported.
- Three-Day Forecast: Forecast suggests continuing moderate to light rainfall, supporting pod-filling and yield quality. No weather extremes anticipated.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2023–24 Prod. (M tonnes) | 2022–23 Prod. (M tonnes) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 11.15 | 12.09 | Lower YOY |
| Canada | 0.22* | 0.26 | Stable to lower |
| Kazakhstan | 0.18* | 0.21 | Stable |
| EU-27 | 0.07* | 0.08 | Stable |
*Estimate. Data: Trade and government sources.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Procurement on dips recommended as crop arrivals stabilize and output is seen lower YOY.
- Short-term: Range-bound price movement likely, supported by steady demand and absence of bearish triggers.
- Sellers encouraged to offload stocks gradually, especially during moments of seasonal demand uptick.
- Exporters: Monitor Indian FOB offers; maintain flexibility as global edible oil markets could impact direction.
- Watch for weather extremes in late July to early August that could impact yield/final arrivals.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Current (EUR/kg) | Forecast Range (Next 3 Days) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi FOB (yellow, bold) | 0.99 | 0.98–1.00 | Stable/Firm |
| Kiełczygłow FCA (sinapis alba) | 0.75 | 0.74–0.76 | Stable/Firm |
| Jaipur (spot, USD/qtl) | 91.38 | 91–92 | Stable |