Millet Market Balances Firm Demand with Tight Top-Grade Supply

The millet market continues to display robust resilience, with firm price levels supported by the ongoing scarcity of high-quality arrivals and consistent demand from both processors and retailers. This week’s trade activity was marked by stable to slightly firmer prices, especially for top-grade millet, as insufficient premium arrivals met with unyielding buying interest. Market sentiment has grown cautiously optimistic, buoyed by a combination of solid end-user demand and a preference for superior product quality.

Price action remains steady, bolstered by relatively tight on-farm arrivals and an industry-wide emphasis on freshness and grain size. However, traders note that an unexpected surge of lower-quality or older stock could temporarily weigh on prices at the lower end of the market. Overall, expectations remain for ongoing firmness, with only moderate downside risk should arrivals improve significantly in the coming period.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Millet seeds	inshell, yellow, 98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0.23	Stable	2025-07-18	Firm
Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, 99%	UA	Odesa	FCA	1.20	1.20	Stable	2025-07-18	Firm
Millet seeds	inshell, red, 98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	Stable	2025-07-18	Firm
Millet kernels	hulled, yellow, 98%	UA	Odesa	FCA	0.40	0.40	Stable	2025-07-18	Stable
Millet seeds	hulled, yellow	UA	Odesa	FOB	0.18	0.18	Stable	2025-07-18	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Short supply of high-quality produce: This week saw arrivals limited to smaller lots, and quality variation was notable, with better-grade millet fetching a marked premium over average lots.
• Consistent demand from processors and retailers: Both domestic and export channels remain active, prioritizing clean, bold, and fresh grain.
• Limited farm arrivals: Reports suggest continued reduced on-farm movement, with no major replenishments expected near-term.
• Potential risk of older-stock influx: If older or off-grade millet is released, lower price segments could see mild pressure.
• Recent comparison: Last month’s report also highlighted similar themes of firm sentiment amid scarce top-grade supply, with price changes minimal since then (no weekly change noted in most segments).

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA/world pulse reports: Recent data indicate lower carryover stocks and reduced acreage in some key millet-producing regions, with Ukraine and India both reporting below-average yield expectations for premium millet.
• Speculative interest: Intermediate speculative buying was sluggish this week, as traders opt for genuineness and await further clarity on the new harvest outlook.
• Inventories: Global stock levels remain below five-year averages, underpinning trade confidence and limiting downside risk, especially for premium lots.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Ukraine: Favorable but drier-than-normal conditions are reported across central and southern regions, with the possibility of heat stress on late-sown millet. No major precipitation events forecast for the coming week.
• India: Monsoonal rainfall has been patchy, raising localized concerns over grain filling stages, particularly in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
• China: Stable outlook with intermittent rain showers, expected to support average crop prospects statewide.
• Poland: Mild temperatures and moist soils bode well for quality, though some late sowings could lag in development.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Production (2024/25 est, kt)	Stocks (2024/25 est, kt)	Notes
India	10,500	1,000	Patches of dryness, subpar monsoon
China	1,100	350	Average yield outlook, stable stocks
Ukraine	230	35	Limited exportable surplus
Poland	75	9	Good quality, moderate stocks

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Maintain balanced procurement strategies—prioritize top-quality lots where possible.
• Watch for sudden releases of older/off-grade millet as a potential source of short-term price weakness at the lower end.
• Monitor monsoon progress in India and weather trends in Ukraine closely, as both can quickly alter global supply perceptions.
• Consider booking forward contracts selectively in anticipation of continued tightness for premium grades.
• Traders should stay alert for any significant shifts in global macro sentiment, especially related to pulses and food security policies.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
Odesa (UA)	Millet seeds, inshell, yellow	0.23 – 0.24	Stable to firm
Kiełczygłow (PL)	Millet seeds, raw, yellow	0.28 – 0.29	Firm
Beijing (CN)	Millet kernels, hulled, yellow	0.76 – 0.78	Steady