The red chilli market in India remains robust, with prices holding steady at elevated levels despite intermittent market fluctuations. The 334 variety of red chilli continues to trade firm at $180.60 per quintal, representing a noticeable increase of $6.02 per quintal compared to previous weeks. One of the world’s most important chilli trading hubs, Guntur, is witnessing daily arrivals between 40,000 to 45,000 bags, signifying stable market activity. However, emerging supply concerns stemming from sporadic rainfall in key growing regions have started influencing market sentiment.
Traders and market participants are reporting persistent strong demand from both domestic processors and global buyers, while stockists are actively accumulating inventory with the expectation of further upward price movements. The combination of steady demand, restricted arrivals due to weather, and a bullish undertone among market participants underpins the current price environment. As weather conditions are expected to continue posing challenges over the short-term, the outlook for red chilli prices stays bullish, with market participants closely monitoring further developments in both supply and demand channels.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
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FOB 4.56 €/kg
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flakes, grade a
FOB 4.53 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Chilli Price Trends
| Name | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Change (EUR/kg) | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | bird eye, grade a | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 4.82 | 4.79 | +0.03 | 2025-07-19 |
| Chilli dried | powder, grade a | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.56 | 4.53 | +0.03 | 2025-07-19 |
| Chilli dried | flakes, grade a | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 4.53 | 4.50 | +0.03 | 2025-07-19 |
| Chilli dried | with stem | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.27 | 2.24 | +0.03 | 2025-07-19 |
| Chilli dried | whole, stemless, grade a | IN | Andhra Pradesh | FOB | 2.30 | 2.27 | +0.03 | 2025-07-19 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Supply: Guntur (major Indian trading hub) arrivals remain steady at 40,000–45,000 bags/day, but intermittent rainfall in producing regions is beginning to restrict supply flow.
- Demand: Persistent and robust domestically and internationally. Processors and exporters report strong procurement activity as buyers secure stock ahead of potential price hikes.
- Stockists: Active buying by stockists is reported, anticipating higher prices due to supply concerns.
- Market Sentiment: Bullish, backed by both fundamental and speculative demand.
📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences
- Weather Impact: Intermittent rains in key Andhra Pradesh and Telangana growing regions threaten harvest quality and may further delay arrivals.
- International Market: Mild but stable export demand, mainly from Southeast Asia and the Gulf, is supporting prices.
- Speculator Activity: Bullish sentiment among traders and stockists as they position for further price gains.
- Comparative Review: The previous chilli market report indicated price resilience and steady demand, but current supply-side risks due to weather have accentuated the bullish outlook.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Effects
- Short-term Forecast: Scattered showers likely to continue in the main chilli belts of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana for the next 3 days.
- Yield Impact: Wet field conditions could delay harvest and arrivals, supporting further price firmness.
- Watch List: Prolonged or intense rainfall could elevate risk of disease and quality degradation, impacting overall marketable yield.
🌎 Global Production & Stock Status
| Country | Production (2024/25) | Stocks (2024/25) | Key Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~1.8 million tonnes | Lower YoY | Largest producer, lower stocks, key global supplier |
| China | ~0.45 million tonnes | Moderate | Domestic focus, lower exports |
| Bangladesh | ~0.25 million tonnes | Low | Rising imports, dependent on Indian supply |
| Vietnam | ~0.08 million tonnes | Low | Primarily exporter to Asia |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Maintain bullish bias for short-term trades given active buying, supportive demand, and weather-driven supply risk.
- Buyers should consider booking forward contracts to hedge against further price surges.
- Monitor weather updates closely, particularly rainfall patterns across Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.
- Exporters: Remain alert for rising inquiries from Southeast Asia and the Middle East as inventories tighten.
- Stockists: Continue accumulation in moderation until fresh arrivals materially increase.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
- Guntur (334 Variety): $181–$183 per quintal (expect minor firming with limited arrivals)
- New Delhi FOB (Whole Bird Eye, Grade A): €4.82–€4.87/kg
- Andhra Pradesh FOB (Powder/Flakes): €4.56–€4.61/kg
