Corn Market Surges: Rising Acreage in India, Firm Global Demand, and Weather Uncertainty Shape 2024 Outlook

The global corn market is undergoing significant transformation, shaped by dramatic increases in Indian maize acreage, robust global demand, and dynamic weather prospects across key producing regions. In India, record sowings, particularly in states such as Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, highlight a remarkable shift toward maize, driven by favorable prices and the expanding needs of feed and ethanol processors. This surge is complemented by a 12% increase in projected production for 2024–25, positioning India for potentially historic output levels. Yet, even as production rises and value climbs—translating to a projected boost of over $1 billion compared to last year—demand from the livestock, starch, and ethanol sectors continues to outstrip supply, underscoring India’s newly established status as a net maize importer.

Globally, corn prices remain steady but sensitive to external pressures: weather volatility, speculative trading and international trade policies continue to shape market sentiment. Ukrainian export offers and FOB French corn are setting a price floor, while ongoing concerns about U.S. weather—particularly summer heat and rainfall—inject uncertainty into the upcoming harvest. As the balance between supply gains and unrelenting demand persists, market participants should be alert to evolving fundamentals.

📈 Corn Prices

Exchange/Origin	Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
CBOT	Futures (Dec)	Chicago	CIF	~0.19*	-0.1%	Stable/Bearish
Euronext	Futures (Nov)	Paris	FOB	0.25	0%	Sideways
UA (Odesa)	Yellow feed grade	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0%	Firm
UA (Odesa)	Yellow	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0%	Steady
FR (Paris)	Yellow	Paris	FOB	0.25	0%	Sideways
IN (New Delhi)	Starch (Organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.93	-1%	Softening

*Approximate futures price converted to EUR/kg based on current FX, for comparison purposes only.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• India: Sowing for 2024 kharif season at a record 8.43 million ha (up from 7.98 million ha), total maize area 12.017 million ha. Production (2024/25) forecast at 42.28 million tonnes (+12%).
• Livestock & Ethanol: Indian feed and ethanol demand rising 8–10%/year—livestock growth pushes consistent buying.
• Global: U.S. and Latin American crops remain pivotal; Ukraine and France key for export flows to North Africa, EU, and Asia.
• Speculative Activity: Managed money positions show mild net long on CBOT corn but risk of sharp shifts if weather or macro signals change.
• Trade Flows: India, traditionally an exporter, now a net importer due to fast-growing internal consumption—shift influencing regional balances.

📊 Fundamentals & Production Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (mn t)	2024/25 Projected (mn t)	Ending Stocks	Change YoY
USA	389	386	52 mn t	-0.8%
China	288	288	205 mn t	0%
Brazil	119	120	10 mn t	+0.8%
Ukraine	29.5	28.7	2.7 mn t	-2.7%
India	37.66	42.28	1.8 mn t	+12.3%
EU	62.8	61.2	6.8 mn t	-2.5%

Source: USDA, Indian Government Estimates, July 2025.

⛅ Weather Outlook (Key Regions)

• USA Midwest: Recent periods of above-normal temperatures with spotty rain; next 10 days to see continued heat, especially in western Corn Belt. Isolated storms may alleviate drought locally, but yield stress possible in dry patches.
• India: Monsoon progress steady; rainfall adequate in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, but pockets of Rajasthan at risk for late moisture stress. No major flood concerns yet.
• Ukraine & Eastern Europe: Generally favorable late pollination/early grain fill, but need continued rain through August to avoid late crop stress.
• Brazil (Safrinha): Recent dry spells, but main crop now mostly harvested and supplies stable.
• Short-Term Risk: Any turn to hot, dry weather in U.S. or monsoon deficiency in India could lift global prices quickly.

📉 Market Drivers & Speculative Positioning

• India’s expansion of maize acreage indicates robust confidence from farmers, but also hints at risk of future domestic surplus if demand growth falters.
• Speculative funds on CBOT holding moderate long positions—market vulnerable to profit-taking on bearish news or aggressive buying on further supply scares.
• Global stocks-to-use ratio tightening, especially with India becoming a net importer.
• Feed and biofuel demand remain resilient across Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
• Political tensions and Black Sea shipping risks (Ukraine) still potential wildcards.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚠️ Producers: Consider locking in forward sales on part of 2024/25 crop amid strong acreage and good weather—unexpected weather setbacks could present fresh opportunities.
• ☑️ Traders: Watch physical premiums in India and Asia for evidence of tightening stocks and local market sentiment.
• 🥇 Feed Users: Stagger purchases, monitor short-term forecasts (especially U.S. rain and Indian monsoon progression).
• 🌐 Exporters: Keep close watch on Indian import policy and global shipping reliability, especially out of Black Sea ports.
• 📉 Speculators: Be wary of sharp reversals: U.S. weather rallies can be brief; overbought conditions could spark corrections if weather fears recede.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range	Bias
CBOT (Dec)	~0.19*	0.18–0.20	Neutral/Soft
Euronext (Nov)	0.25	0.24–0.26	Sideways
Paris FOB (FR)	0.25	0.24–0.26	Sideways
Odesa FCA (UA)	0.25	0.24–0.26	Steady
IN (New Delhi)	1.93	1.90–1.95	Softening

*CBOT in EUR/kg, indicative futures conversion.