The global pepper market continues to tread water as both domestic and international prices remain subdued. In India, black pepper is trading firmly—hovering around $8.55/kg—mainly due to tight local inventories. However, the absence of robust festive or export orders has diminished momentum. Stockists are adopting a cautious wait-and-watch stance, while most of the latest harvest has already reached the market. Seasonal monsoon rains in Kerala and Karnataka are further dampening local logistics and processing, keeping traders vigilant about new purchases.
Internationally, Vietnam, as the world’s largest black pepper exporter, is dealing with squeezed profit margins as rising local costs collide with declining FOB prices ($3,400–3,600/tonne, CFR). This is pressuring Indian exporters amid stable outputs from Indonesia and Brazil, though these latter origins face their own currency volatility challenges. On the demand side, Europe and the Middle East remain the primary bulk buyers, but at increasingly negotiated, cautious price points. China’s appetite has eased, reflecting healthy internal stocks. Meanwhile, institutional and hospitality demand within India is muted, a seasonal norm after recent inventory build-ups. All eyes are on the potential impact of further monsoon weather disruptions and whether upcoming festival demand can shift the outlook. Short-term prospects suggest stability with a potential for softness, though supply chain hiccups could trigger reactive price moves.
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Pepper
black 600 g/l, clean
FOB 6.42 €/kg
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black 550 g/l, faq
FOB 6.05 €/kg
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Pepper
black 550 g/l, clean
FOB 6.12 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices & Sentiment
| Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Black 600 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.38 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black 550 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.00 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black 550 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.08 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black 500 g/l, faq | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 5.80 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.10 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Black, 5 mm, extra bold | VN | Hanoi | FOB | 6.50 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Pepper powder (black, organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.86 | +0.04 | Firm, slight uptick |
| White whole (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 7.13 | +0.03 | Firm |
| Green dehydrated (organic) | LK | Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte | FOB | 8.57 | +0.04 | Firm |
| Black whole 500 g/l (organic) | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 8.17 | +0.04 | Stable |
| Black 500 g/l, clean | IN | New Delhi | FOB | 5.71 | +0.02 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India: Most fresh harvest already entered; monsoons slowing logistics and drying.
- Vietnam: Facing margin squeeze; FOB prices down to $3,400–3,600/ton (CFR); still the price setter internationally.
- Indonesia/Brazil: Output steady, but currency instability crimps exports.
- Demand: Bulk of buying by Middle East and Europe, with price-conscious contracts; Chinese buying slow after inventory fill.
- Domestic (India): Institutional & hospitality buy is subdued; no strong festive triggers in the short term.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Data
- Global price reference: Black pepper stable at $8.55/kg (India).
- Vietnam Grade A: $3,400–$3,600/tonne CFR (approx. €6.0–6.4/kg FOB in EU markets).
- Inventories: Ample pipeline supplies, low urgency for restocking by stockists.
- Speculative activity: Limited hedging—wait-and-watch mode dominates.
☁️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Monsoon (India): Ongoing rains impacting post-harvest processing (drying, movement) in Kerala/Karnataka; risk of quality issues and delayed deliveries—traders cautious on inventory build-up.
- Vietnam: Typical humid/warm July; no major weather threats reported.
- Indonesia/Brazil: Seasonally normal, no current crop shock.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | Est. 2025 Production (t) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 200,000+ | Stable-high |
| Brazil | 90,000+ | Steady |
| Indonesia | 75,000 | Stable |
| India | 70,000 | Modest |
| Sri Lanka | 15,000 | Stable |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term (1–3 weeks): Prices likely to stay stable to slightly weak amid sufficient stocks and weak festival/export demand.
- Stockists should avoid aggressive buying; monitor monsoon disruptions to supply lines in India.
- Exporters: Monitor Vietnam’s continued price trend and INR/EUR volatility for margin management.
- Buyers: Secure requirements in tranches; limited risk of sharp price decline, but monsoon risks could cause spot squeezes.
- Medium-term (Q3–Q4 2025): Watch for a demand revival ahead of festive season (Sept–Nov) and Gulf export inquiries.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Current Price (EUR/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| India (FOB New Delhi) | 8.17 | 8.10 – 8.20 | Stable |
| Vietnam (FOB Hanoi) | 6.38 | 6.30 – 6.40 | Stable-weak |
| Indonesia (FOB) | ~6.10 | 6.05 – 6.15 | Steady |
