Wheat Market Surges as USDA Cuts Output: Bullish Momentum Amid Tightening Supplies

The wheat market is experiencing a notable rally following a turbulent week, culminating in the strongest session on July 24 on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Recent weeks saw bearish tones shifting rapidly after the USDA cut U.S. wheat production estimates for the 2025–26 season to 90 million tonnes—below earlier projections of 93–94 million tonnes. Simultaneously, export forecasts were revised upward, signaling robust international demand. These market developments combined with global inventory concerns have turned trader sentiment bullish, especially with Asian and North African importers showing increased appetite for U.S. wheat.

Export volumes remain impressive, with consecutive weeks surpassing 500,000 tonnes, and technical buying has added fuel to the uptrend. As fields in the U.S. Midwest face persistent dry spells—potentially trimming further yield expectations—and with global harvests facing mixed weather outlooks, the market’s attention remains glued to upcoming USDA data and evolving forecasts. Prices are now expected to oscillate within a $5.40–$5.70 per bushel range in the near-term. In summary, the wheat market currently balances on a knife-edge, driven by tightening supplies, robust export demand, and mounting weather risks.

📈 Prices & Market Overview

Exchange/Market	Product Details	Latest Price	Previous Price	Change	Currency	Sentiment
CBOT	US Wheat (protein min. 11.5%)	5.51	5.21	+0.30	USD/bushel	Bullish
Euronext (Paris)	French Wheat (protein min. 11.0%)	0.28	0.28	0.00	EUR/kg (FOB Paris)	Steady
Ukrainian FOB/Odesa	Wheat (protein min. 11.0%)	0.19	0.20	-0.01	EUR/kg	Weakening
Ukrainian FOB/Odesa	Wheat (protein min. 12.5%)	0.20	0.20	0.00	EUR/kg	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA Cuts Production: New U.S. wheat output estimate at 90 Mt for 2025–26 (down from 93–94 Mt).
• Export Forecast Raised: U.S. export forecast rising to 48 Mt from 45 Mt as global demand picks up.
• International Importers Active: Asian and North African buyers increase purchase tenders, supporting higher export sales.
• Tight Global Inventories: Persistent drawdown in stocks keeps market sensitive to fresh supply shocks.
• Speculator Activity: Funds turning net-long as technical breakouts trigger fresh buying.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global Production: Major exporters (U.S., Russia, EU, Canada, Australia) show mixed production outlooks with some localized weather risks.
• Stock Comparison: Global wheat stocks forecasted below last year, with U.S. and EU both tightening.
• Export Sales: U.S. export sales over 500,000 tonnes for two consecutive weeks—well above seasonal average.

Country/Region	Production (Mt)	Stock Level (Mt)
U.S.	90	16
Russia	85	19
EU	125	12
Australia	28	2
Canada	29	4

☁️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• U.S. Midwest: Persistent dry conditions—potential yield impact in late-planted areas.
• Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia): Recent rains benefit early harvest, but continued dryness a risk for late-maturing fields.
• EU (France/Germany): Mild spells and local rain, generally supportive, but watch for heatwaves in August.
• Australia: Dry start to season; yield prospects hinge on August rainfall.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor U.S. weather: Any further drought in the Midwest could provide fresh upside.
• Watch for updated USDA supply/demand data.
• Global export tenders: Large purchases from Asia/North Africa may signal further price gains.
• Bullish technical picture: Stay alert for breakouts above $5.70/bushel resistance.
• Consider partial hedging strategies for physical sellers.

⏳ 3-Day Price Forecast

• CBOT (US): $5.45–$5.60 per bushel (bullish bias, weather dependent)
• Euronext (Paris, FR): €0.28–€0.29 per kg (sideways to firm)
• Ukraine (FOB Odesa): €0.19–€0.20 per kg (consolidation)