The mustard Oil market is currently witnessing robust momentum, driven primarily by strong demand from oil mills in India, heightened procurement from processors, and supportive global trends in edible oil markets. On July 24, mustard prices at key Indian mandis, notably in Jaipur, jumped by $1.50 per quintal to reach $91.81 per quintal. This surge followed aggressive evening purchases by processors, with an estimated 100,000 quintals snapped up across mandis in a single trading session. While daily arrivals remained steady at 325,000 bags, preventing a runaway rally, the resilience in prices signals continued bullish sentiment.
Oil millers are anticipated to maintain their demand in anticipation of further price hikes, a stance reflected on the futures segment at NCDEX where mustard seed contracts also firmed up. Global edible oil prices supported domestic optimism—Malaysian palm oil, for example, saw a 0.54% increase, indirectly bolstering mustard seed demand. India’s government expects a record 10.35 million tonnes mustard crop for the 2024–25 season, up 15% year-on-year, securing adequate domestic supply. However, with crushers, exporters, and processors continuing at a brisk pace—and buyers tracking global cues and local weather patterns closely—the market outlook remains constructive for the near term. Any disruption in supply due to irregular monsoon or a sharp uptick in global vegetable oils could fuel another leg higher in prices.
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Mustard seeds
yellow, micro, sortex
99.95%
FOB 0.83 €/kg
(from IN)
Mustard seeds
yellow, bold, sortex
99.95%
FOB 0.99 €/kg
(from IN)
Mustard seeds
brown, micro, sortex
FOB 0.83 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Country/Location | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Change | Last Update | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow, micro, sortex | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 0.83 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Yellow, bold, sortex | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 0.99 | +0.01 | 2025-07-19 | Firm |
| Brown, micro, sortex | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 0.83 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Brown, bold, sortex | IN / New Delhi | FOB | 0.76 | 0.00 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| Sinapis alba | KZ / PL (Kiełczygłow) | FCA | 0.75 | +0.01 | 2025-07-18 | Trending Up |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India remains the world’s largest mustard seed producer, with 2024–25 production estimated at 10.35 million tonnes, up 15% year-over-year.
- Daily arrivals in Indian mandis steadied at ~325,000 bags, signaling abundant supply despite active buying.
- Strong demand from oil mills and crushers, reacting both to anticipated price increases and firm global edible oil markets.
- Refined soy oil and crude palm oil both posted marginal gains, creating spillover support for mustard seed prices, especially as palm oil (benchmark for global edible oils) rose 0.54%.
📊 Fundamentals
| Country | 24/25 Production (Mt) | Stocks (Mt) | Key Exporters | Importers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| India | 10.35 | Approx. 2.0 | Yes | Limited |
| Canada | 0.70 | 0.18 | Yes | No |
| Russia | 0.23 | 0.08 | Yes | No |
| Kazakhstan | 0.12 | Negligible | Yes | No |
| EU | 0.12 | 0.04 | Yes | Yes |
- Stock levels remain healthy, but active procurement by exporters is sustaining upward price momentum.
- Speculative positioning on exchanges (NCDEX) supports the prevailing bullish sentiment.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Impact
- India (Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh): Recent monsoon activity has been adequate, ensuring optimal crop progress. However, forecasts indicate a possible dry spell in early August, which could stress later-planted fields if prolonged.
- Kazakhstan, Canada: Weather has been mostly favorable with occasional heat events, but current soil moisture is adequate for crop growth.
- Any deviation from typical monsoon patterns in key Indian regions may rapidly impact yield forecasts and price sentiment. Continued monitoring is advised.
📌 Market Drivers
- Rising demand from oil mills and crushers in India.
- Stable to firm global edible oil prices (notably palm oil and soy oil).
- Healthy government production estimates support medium-term supply confidence.
- Ongoing procurement for exports and domestic oil extraction.
- Vigilance on weather anomalies as potential price catalysts.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Consider moderate stocking at current price levels as the risk of supply disruption from weather or a global edible oil spike persists.
- Sellers/Exporters: Take advantage of current firmness but remain flexible—quick upward spikes may offer profit-taking windows.
- Monitor NCDEX futures and global edible oil benchmarks for cues on trend reversals or further rally potential.
- Weather patterns in India and Black Sea origins need close tracking—any negative deviation might further fuel prices.
📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaipur (IN) | $91.80/qtl | $91.90/qtl | $92.00/qtl | ⬆️ Mildly Bullish |
| New Delhi (IN, FOB) | EUR 0.99/kg | EUR 1.00/kg | EUR 1.00/kg | ⬆️ Stable to Firm |
| Kiełczygłow (PL, FCA, KZ origin) | EUR 0.75/kg | EUR 0.76/kg | EUR 0.76/kg | ⬆️ Mild Uptrend |
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